If game 82 offered any indication, the second half of the season won’t lack intrigue for the Toronto Blue Jays.
The Blue Jays opened up the second half with a 19-inning loss to the Cleveland Indians that lasted more than six hours and required more than 500 pitches in total. With the loss, the Blue Jays sit 1.0 game out of a Wild Card berth with 43 wins.
Those results are decent, but the 2015 AL East champions will need more to repeat as division winners. With 82 games now completed, we look back at the first half and ahead at what awaits…
STARTING ROTATION
So far: A breakout performance from Aaron Sanchez and continued excellence from Marco Estrada have powered a better-than-expected Blue Jays rotation. J.A. Happ and R.A. Dickey have provided quality innings, leaving just one disappointment: even after a strong Canada Day outing Friday Marcus Stroman’s ERA is 5.08.
Toward the deadline and beyond: Given the choice, the Blue Jays would surely replicate those first half results, Stroman struggles and all. It’s just not that easy to post a 3.82 ERA.
More realistically, some regression seems likely. With Sanchez expected to return to the bullpen at some point in the second half, the Blue Jays will lose one of their best starters. While a trade deadline pickup could theoretically fill that void, it’d be a surprise to see Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins give up the kind of prospects required to land an elite arm. Sure, it’s reasonable to expect the Blue Jays to ask around on starting pitching, but anything less than a frontline starter would amount to a dropoff in production compared to Sanchez’s 3.08 ERA.
Add that to the list of reasons the Blue Jays will work with Stroman in the hopes that he can turn his season around. He’s shown he’s capable of being a frontline starter, but that potential has not translated to results often enough in 2016.
There’s also the question of health. Blue Jays starters have been extremely durable so far, but the organization lacks big-league ready arms beyond Drew Hutchison, who has had an all-star season at triple-A. Yet another reason to talk trades.
All told the Blue Jays can’t simply assume they’ll get the same production from their starters in the second half. Perhaps their relievers will be able to make up the difference.
BULLPEN
So far: To borrow Brett Cecil’s words, there’s been a lot of “not very good” from Blue Jays relievers this year. The struggles of Cecil and Drew Storen left manager John Gibbons without an effective bridge to closer Roberto Osuna and led to a whole lot of adjusting on the fly. Just eight teams had bullpen ERAs worse than Toronto’s 4.38 mark through 81 games.
Toward the deadline and beyond: Cecil’s return changes the dynamic for the Blue Jays, as would the addition of Sanchez later in the summer. A healthy Franklin Morales wouldn’t hurt, either.
But relying on internal upgrades alone would be risky for the Blue Jays considering that Gavin Floyd’s lat injury further depletes an already-vulnerable bullpen. It makes sense for the Blue Jays’ front office to pursue trades for relievers, too. While surrendering top prospects for relievers isn’t advisable, the Blue Jays can seek a balance between holding their best minor leaguers and addressing a weakness.
STARTING LINEUP
So far: Relative to the rest of the league the Blue Jays have actually hit pretty well; just seven teams scored more times than them through 81 games. Relative to last year? They haven’t been nearly as productive.
Josh Donaldson should be among the AL MVP frontrunners again, Edwin Encarnacion continues to mash and Michael Saunders has bounced back in a huge way. But slow starts from Troy Tulowitzki and Russell Martin affected the offence for an extended period.
Toward the deadline and beyond: A productive lineup has a chance to improve in the second half, even without outside help.
Any team with Donaldson, Encarnacion and Jose Bautista should score a ton. Add Saunders’ production and there’s no reason the Blue Jays can’t continue putting up big numbers. Now that the injuries that affected Martin and Tulowitzki have subsided, there are threats late in the order, too.
The quality and depth of this lineup was what made the Blue Jays contenders in the first place. With this kind of talent they should be a top-five offence from here on, allowing the front office to focus on upgrades to the pitching staff.
BENCH
So far: Ezequiel Carrera and Darwin Barney have stepped up for the Blue Jays, though Josh Thole and Ryan Goins haven’t provided much offence.
Toward the deadline and beyond: The Blue Jays’ bench appears to be in decent shape, and will have another right-handed power bat available once Chris Colabello‘s eligible to return from his PED suspension later this month.
Toronto has carried three catchers at times in years past, but that’s tough to do with just four bench spots. Perhaps the Blue Jays could pursue a late-August trade for a third catcher as a way of providing Gibbons with some depth and flexibility in September (e.g. resting Martin without starting Thole or pinch-hitting with Martin on days Thole starts).
Realistically, that’d be a small move, though. Assuming Bautista returns fully healthy and Carrera returns to the bench, the Blue Jays appear to be fine here. If Bautista’s recovery takes longer than expected, adding a right-handed hitting outfielder would also help.
