MLB 30 in 30: Braves’ young arms will determine timetable for contention

Down a run in the 8th inning, the USA pulls off a dramatic comeback to win their initial Pool F game, plus Japan advances to the semi-finals.

There’s now reason to believe that the Braves, owners of an elite farm system, will again return to prominence. And in the meantime, at least their fans get to watch some promising players in a new stadium.

As we approach the 2017 season, we’re previewing what’s ahead for each of the 30 MLB teams. The Atlanta Braves are next:

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Up-and-coming player to watch

One year after the Braves acquired Dansby Swanson in a franchise-changing steal of a trade with the Diamondbacks, the former first overall pick looks like a core piece capable of contributing on both sides of the ball.

As a 22-year-old he hit .275 with a .787 OPS in the minors—respectable numbers to be sure. Then, after an aggressive promotion to the big-leagues, he actually improved on those numbers, batting .302 with an .803 OPS in 38 games with Atlanta. If more of that production awaits Braves fans, they won’t have to worry about shortstop for a long while.

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What a successful 2017 season would look like

As with most last-place teams, the Braves will need a combination of development and talent acquisition to call 2017 a success. Unlike most last-place team, they have a new stadium opening to soften the blow of what’s likely to be another losing season.

On the development front, the Braves will hope for continued production from core pieces like Ender Inciarte, Dansby Swanson and Freddie Freeman. As for talent acquisition, the Braves will surely contemplate trades of veterans such as Jim Johnson if aggressive summer buyers emerge.

By no means do the Braves have to trade Julio Teheran. Controllable through 2020, he could conceivably be a member of Atlanta’s next playoff team. But if the summer trade market’s as desperate for frontline pitching as usual, the Braves might at least want to listen to offers on the 26-year-old. To a lesser extent, the same applies to Ian Krol, a quality left-hander under team control for four more seasons.

Biggest remaining question

Just one team scored fewer runs than the Braves in 2016, so their chances of improving in the short-term likely depend on their bats. They finished strong last year, leading to some optimism that their lineup’s better than it looked.

Big-picture, though, there’s a more pressing question in Atlanta: how many of their young arms reach their potential? Baseball America lists six pitchers among the Braves’ top 10 prospects: Kolby Allard, Mike Soroka, Ian Anderson, Sean Newcomb, Patrick Weigel and Max Fried. Those young arms are the reason that the Braves are widely believed to have one of baseball’s top farm systems. Best-case scenario they eventually become the core of a Mets or Indians-like rotation. If any team can dream about that possibility, it’s the Braves.

At the same time, there’s so much risk involved in developing young pitching. Anderson’s 18. Allard and Soroka are just 19. Newcomb’s closer to the big-leagues, but he continues walking too many hitters. These arms won’t have much say in determining the Braves’ 2017 record, but their development bears watching because they’re essential to Atlanta’s long-term chances.

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