After getting walked-off in the 2016 AL wild card game—while Zach Britton watched from the bullpen, in case you forgot—the Orioles had a relatively quiet winter and will try to return to the post-season with a very familiar roster.
As we approach the 2017 season, we’re previewing what’s ahead for each of the 30 MLB teams. The Baltimore Orioles are next:
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Up-and-coming player to watch
Left-handed hitting catcher Chance Sisco split time between double-A and triple-A in 2016, putting up a terrific-for-a-backstop line of .317/.403/.430 between the two levels. While scouts aren’t quite as high on his defence behind the plate, you can’t deny the offensive tools of a player who boasts an .836 OPS over his minor-league career and has shown power to all fields.
Sisco will likely begin 2017 in the minors to continue refining his defensive game, but there isn’t much in his way at the big league level. With Matt Wieters off to join his fellow Scott Boras clients in Washington, the Orioles will start the season with the 29-year-old Castillo behind the plate. But he’s on an inexpensive, one-year deal, and if he were to get hurt or significantly underperform, Sisco would likely be the next man up.
What a successful 2017 season would look like
Chris Tillman builds on his strong 2016 and brings his numbers closer to the ones he put up three years ago when he pitched to a 3.34 ERA over 34 starts. Kevin Gausman and Dylan Bundy continue developing into two of the better young arms in baseball, contributing full, healthy seasons with strong results. Wade Miley and Ubaldo Jimenez don’t burst into flames whenever they take the mound, and pitch to better than league average numbers. The bullpen’s imposing back-end—Mychal Givens, Brad Brach and Darren O’Day setting up for Britton—is lights out and shortens games.
The offence leads baseball in home runs for a second consecutive season and finds a way to hit for a bit of average as well, putting runners on base for sluggers Chris Davis, Mark Trumbo and Manny Machado, who hit 40-plus homers apiece. Buck Showalter pitches Britton in do-or-die situations (sorry, had to). The Orioles return to the playoffs where their streaky hitters get hot at the right time and they don’t need to start Miley or Jimenez, which helps them get out of the divisional round at least.
Biggest remaining question
Can the Baltimore Orioles continue to be baseball’s most confounding team? Projection systems hate the Orioles this season—PECOTA forecasts just 73 wins at Baseball Prospectus—but that’s par for the course as this is a club that has significantly outperformed its projections five years running. For one reason or another, the Orioles have been perpetually in the post-season picture over that time, despite lacklustre starting pitching, offences that live and die with the long ball, and bullpens that tap dance through mine fields in high leverage situations.
There are plenty of reasons to bet against them again in 2017. Miley (5.37 ERA in 2016) and Jimenez (5.44) are two-fifths of their rotation; two of their primary offensive contributors, Trumbo and Davis, could combine for 400 strikeouts; they might have the worst outfield defence in baseball. But considering how the Orioles outperform expectations time and again, do you dare bet against them?
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