The rebuilding Reds have some intriguing offensive pieces and an improving farm system. But at this point they’re better defined by what they don’t have: pitching, payroll, or any kind of short-term hope.
As we approach the 2017 season, we’re previewing what’s ahead for each of the 30 MLB teams. The Cincinnati Reds are next:
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Up-and-coming player to watch
If Adam Duvall can come close to sustaining the production he flashed during the first half of the 2016 season, the Reds have a star on their hands. When Duvall finished June with 22 home runs and an .858 OPS, he looked like a legitimate power bat.
But if Duvall’s second half reflects his true talent level, he’s not so special after all. The 28-year-old slowed down from July on, hitting just 11 home runs with a .735 OPS. On a team looking for core pieces, the question of Duvall’s offensive potential looms large. For that reason alone, the right-handed hitter will be worth watching closely in 2017.
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What a successful 2017 season would look like
Let’s dream big for a bit. If Joey Votto has a huge first half, would the Reds trade him? Sure, it’d be tough to move someone with a full no-trade clause and $179 million left on his contract, but Votto’s one of the best hitters in baseball, the kind of player who could surely command a huge prospect haul.
More realistically, the Reds are likely to trade smaller pieces to build their talent base. There’s no point in having a fire sale for its own sake, but if veterans like Drew Storen, Scott Feldman and Zack Cozart play well in the first half, they should be dealt for the best offers available. The more they can replicate the Dan Straily template—waiver claim dealt for well-regarded prospect within a year—the better, especially when it comes to players with little long-term value.
Then there’s the question of Cincinnati’s core pieces. Dilson Herrera and Jose Peraza offer promise, and a successful year for the Reds might also include a return to health from Devin Mesoraco and the emergence of some young pitching.
You’ll notice that the Reds’ win-loss record hasn’t come up yet. They’re likely going to need more patience before the focus turns to the standings. Until then it’s all about accumulating talent from as many places as possible.
Biggest remaining question
Few teams face more questions than the Reds. They lack starting pitching, they lack relievers and they play in the NL’s toughest division. General manager Dick Williams faces a long list of challenges in 2017, none more pressing than the need for arms.
The league posted an .801 OPS against Reds pitching last year largely because they allowed so many walks (636, most in MLB) and so many homers (258, most in MLB). There’s simply not enough pitching in Cincinnati, as evidenced by the fact that Feldman, who didn’t even make Toronto’s ALCS roster, will start opening day.
That’s a long-term problem, not one likely to be solved by a free agent signing or two. For now, the Reds will look for emerging arms like Anthony DeSclafani and Raisel Iglesias to continue succeeding against MLB hitters.
Ideally, young arms such as Brandon Finnegan and Robert Stephenson would take meaningful steps forward, and veterans like Storen and Homer Bailey would pitch well enough to attract interest at the trade deadline. Considering where the Reds are now situated, they’re still many players away from threatening the Cubs, Cardinals and Pirates. The more of those pieces they obtain in 2017, the sooner they contend.
