Every year a team or two completes the transition from afterthought to contender, and after a particularly active off-season, many teams have a fighting chance at being 2015’s sleeper team. So who has the best shot?
To find out, Sportsnet polled 20 MLB executives including general managers, assistant GMs and scouts. Half of the teams in baseball were named at some point, a reminder that baseball’s landscape is as unpredictable as it is competitive.
Starting with the teams that obtained the most votes, here’s a look at every club that was named by at least three executives along with why they have a shot at surprising in 2015:
San Diego Padres
This time last year execs identified the Padres as baseball’s biggest sleeper and they finished with all of 77 wins. That cost GM Josh Byrnes his job, but his replacement, first-year GM A.J. Preller, made enough bold moves to place San Diego atop this list for the second year in a row. That’s not necessarily a bad omen; a year ago execs identified both World Series teams as possible sleepers (Giants, Royals) along with the clubs that led their respective leagues in wins (Nationals, Angels).
The Padres were the top choice because Preller acquired Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, James Shields, Wil Myers and Derek Norris in a few short months. The moves were considered aggressive and daring by rival executives, who expect the Padres to improve considerably on last year’s win total.
The optimism isn’t universal, though. Some executives warn that the Padres won’t be as good as advertised in a division that includes the defending World Series champions and the scary-looking Los Angeles Dodgers. But the consensus has the Padres within striking distance of a playoff spot this year, and that in itself would be a major step forward.
Votes: 9 | 2014 win total: 77
Miami Marlins
Not only did the Marlins add Dee Gordon, Mat Latos, Michael Morse, Ichiro Suzuki and Martin Prado, they have Jose Fernandez working his way back from Tommy John surgery. Expectations have been raised in Miami, and the NL East is wide open beyond the Nationals. If Fernandez returns to form, some execs believe Miami “could be lethal.”
Votes: 7 | 2014 Win Total: 77
Cleveland Indians
The Indians are coming off an 85-win season, but they qualify as a sleeper because their off-season moves barely generated much buzz at all compared to many of their American League rivals. Executives view Cleveland as an improving team that could take a step forward if their promising young pitching produces. A lineup that could already do damage against right-handed pitching in 2014 should be even more productive against righties with the addition of Brandon Moss.
Votes: 6 | 2014 Win Total: 85
New York Mets
Expectations have been raised in New York, even after a relatively quiet off-season headlined by the addition of Michael Cuddyer. But like their Miami-based division rivals, the Mets have a young right-hander coming back from Tommy John surgery (Matt Harvey) and the advantage of playing in a weakened NL East. Two GMs pointed to the Mets as a team to watch, reasoning that their young arms will keep them competitive.
Votes: 5 | 2014 Win Total: 79
Houston Astros
Houston improved by 19 games last year and still lost 92 times, so they don’t appear to be on the cusp of winning just yet. But after an off-season that saw them acquire the likes of Evan Gattis, Jed Lowrie, Colby Rasmus and Luke Gregerson, executives say they could be poised to take another step forward and surprise some people under new manager A.J. Hinch.
Votes: 5 | 2014 Win Total: 70
Chicago White Sox
The Cubs aren’t the only Chicago team expected to take a step forward. Executives view the White Sox as an improved team after a busy winter that saw GM Rick Hahn acquire Melky Cabrera, David Robertson and Jeff Samardzija. While the Tigers may still be favoured in the AL Central, MLB execs expect a more balanced division thanks to the likes of Chicago and Cleveland.
Votes: 5 | 2014 Win Total: 73
Tampa Bay Rays
Yes, the Rays lost their GM (Andrew Friedman), their manager (Joe Maddon) and their right fielder (Wil Myers). Those losses hurt, but many executives still expect Tampa Bay to contend because of a starting rotation fronted by Alex Cobb, Chris Archer, Drew Smyly and Jake Odorizzi. That kind of pitching should keep Tampa Bay relevant even if they have difficulty scoring.
Votes: 5 | 2014 Win Total: 77
Chicago Cubs
The acquisitions of Jon Lester, Dexter Fowler, Miguel Montero and manager Joe Maddon should be enough to make the Cubs relevant. Executives are divided on whether they’re ready to compete for the playoffs, but they agree that Chicago should take a big step forward in 2015.
Votes: 4 | 2014 Win Total: 73
Seattle Mariners
The Mariners have pitched well in recent seasons, but they have a chance to improve their offensive output after signing Nelson Cruz and trading for Seth Smith. One rival GM highlighted the Mariners as a team with a chance to be “really good” in 2015 on the heels of an 87-win season.
Votes: 3 | 2014 Win Total: 87
Texas Rangers
Injuries cost the Rangers big-time in 2015, so executives believe they could rebound with improved health. The AL West will be competitive, so there are no guarantees for Texas, but at least they have a shot if the likes of Prince Fielder bounce back.
Votes: 3 | 2014 Win Total: 67
Boston Red Sox
Executives believe the Red Sox made strong moves – so strong, in fact, that some were hesitant to group them with other sleepers. Though Boston finished last in the AL East in 2014, this team looks like a legit contender after adding Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval while bolstering their rotation with Rick Porcello, Wade Miley and Justin Masterson.
Votes: 3 | 2014 Win Total: 71
HONOURABLE MENTIONS
Oakland Athletics, Toronto Blue Jays, Cincinnati Reds, Arizona Diamondbacks.