In fantasy terms, ‘bust’ generally describes a player who’s due for a large statistical decline. That’s not necessarily what we’re referring to in this article, though.
In the list below, the term bust is reflective of a player who will not live up to his draft cost. Players are routinely drafted too high for any number of reasons, but we’ll try and steer you in the right direction.
Here’s one bust per position:
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Catcher: Yadier Molina, St. Louis Cardinals
Molina may be the best all-around catcher in baseball but he’s a declining fantasy asset. The 32-year-old (he turns 33 this summer) is coming off a year in which he missed significant time with injuries and saw some concerning trends while healthy. His slugging percentage dropped almost 70 points before he sustained a thumb injury while his isolated power numbers declined for the second straight season. Don’t over-draft Molina based on name value.
First Base: Freddie Freeman, Atlanta Braves
Freeman has been a reliable producer for the past few seasons. However, his fantasy stock is a bit too high. He’s being drafted amongst the top six for first basemen, yet he may not live up to his 2014 production. The Braves overhauled their roster and traded away Jason Heyward, Justin Upton, and Evan Gattis in the off-season. The lack of offensive punch will likely impact Freeman’s RBI opportunities.
Second Base: Dustin Pedroia, Boston Red Sox
Like Molina, Pedroia still gets drafted too high because he’s a big name. While he’s been a very good player for the Red Sox, his fantasy value has taken a tumble. His home run and stolen base totals have declined in three straight seasons, and he hit a career-low seven home runs last year. Steamer’s projection system forecasts just 10 home runs and 10 stolen bases in 2015. Is that worth his draft cost?
Shortstop: Javier Baez, Chicago Cubs
Baez has a ton of talent, but unless you’re in a keeper pool, he may be a year or two away from being a reliable fantasy player. His contact rates were problematic last season — 95 whiffs in 52 games as a rookie — and he isn’t a lock to play every day under new manager Joe Maddon. He’s only 22 years old and will improve, but let someone else live with his erratic production.
Third Base: David Wright, New York Mets
The Mets’ third baseman is coming off of his worst statistical season as a pro (.262 average with eight home runs), and we’re imploring you to stay away in 2015. Also, durability has become a concern. Wright averaged just 126 games the last four seasons and he already dealt with a shoulder injury early in spring training. His draft cost isn’t expensive, but it’s just not worth it anymore.
Outfield: Nelson Cruz, Seattle Mariners
Cruz will be the cleanup hitter on a potential contender, but that still doesn’t mean he’s worth the price. The Mariners outfielder just got handed a handsome long-term deal after a monster season and it’s difficult to imagine him repeating his 2014 numbers in pitcher-friendly Safeco Field (see Cano, Robinson in 2014). Cruz will have an adjustment period in Seattle and it’s not worth dealing with.
Starting Pitcher: Masahiro Tanaka, New York Yankees
Tanaka was outstanding in his rookie season before he suffered an injury to his ulnar collateral ligament — an issue that routinely leads to Tommy John surgery. Despite his incredible production, it’s hard to get past the UCL damage that threatens to linger all season.
Relief Pitcher: Zach Britton, Baltimore Orioles
Britton shined in the closer’s role for Baltimore last season, and he’s still a good candidate for saves, but his peripheral numbers told a different story. His strikeout rate — 7.31 strikeouts per nine innings — was one of the lowest among closers who registered at least 20 saves, and his .215 batting average on balls in play allowed leads you to believe he’s due for regression in both ERA and WHIP. I’m staying away this year.
