NATIONAL HARBOR, Md. — Mark Shapiro told a funny story on Wednesday about a conversation he and Theo Epstein had last season before Epstein’s Chicago Cubs ended their 108-year World Series drought.
“If you talk to Theo, there’s one thing he will always say to you: Young. Young,” said Shapiro, the Toronto Blue Jays president and chief executive officer. “Don’t get old. Young good. Old bad.”
Shapiro spoke on my show on Sportsnet 590 The FAN as the third day of baseball’s winter meetings began with more talk about a game in the throes of transition: With a new collective bargaining agreement that changes the rules for free-agent compensation next season, the greatest free-agent class of all-time just two seasons away, a continuing evolution on how teams value bullpens and youth on the march.
The game still makes you laugh at times – such as when Dusty Baker, the manager of the Washington Nationals, shook his head and sadly remarked that his club couldn’t match the San Francisco Giants offer for closer Mark Melancon because “we don’t have the budget or the packed stadium for 800 games in a row like the Giants do. They have more resources than we do,” which is an odd take from a guy whose team is owned by Ted Lerner, No. 90 on the Forbes 400 with a net worth of $5.5 billion.
But mostly, as long-time Major League executive Ned Colletti said on Tuesday, this is a game where “38 [years old] no longer plays like 28.” With stricter testing for performance enhancing substances, Colletti says, “28 is now 28.”
We used to talk about young pitching being the gold standard. The currency of the realm. Now, it seems as if Epstein and the Cubs have put a twist on it: building around young position players developed from within with a lower failure rate and less frightening development curve than young arms–spending money or perhaps trading prospects for a pitcher in his late 20s or early 30s, somebody that someone else has drafted and developed and maybe even nurtured through surgery and rehabilitation.
That’s what they did Wednesday, sending Jorge Soler to the Kansas City Royals for closer Wade Davis. It’s what the Boston Red Sox’s David Dombrowski did in acquiring Chris Sale, and it’s why, frankly, the Blue Jays are playing catch-up.
Adam Eaton should be a Blue Jay. Instead, the 28-year-old outfielder is with the Nationals after Wednesday’s trade with the Chicago White Sox. He is owed just $19.9 million over the next three seasons has two club options that pay out an extra $18 million over two years and is described by Nationals GM Mike Rizzo as a player who “fits perfectly for us: left-handed hitter, high energy, plays with an edge, contact guy … can hit for power. … One of the few times I’ve been in a war room and have seen the analytics matched up with the scout’s eyes.”
Hmm, I know an American League East team that could use him.
But…
The Nationals gave away the game’s best pitching prospect for Eaton, a fine player but no franchise cornerstone. Plus, a couple of other arms. And now you know why when the Blue Jays were acquiring Francisco Liriano from the Pittsburgh Pirates. They told the Pirates they’d take a couple of minor leaguers from their top 15 as well instead of having the Pirates kick in money for Drew Hutchison.
“Teams are asking for players from our Major League team because our farm system’s not as deep,” said Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins. “We couldn’t make a trade like that right now. If we stay on this course, in another year or two it might be possible to make deal without taking away from our Major League team.”
It’s no wonder, then, that lobby chatter involving the Blue Jays focuses on Marcus Stroman and Kevin Pillar, who have attracted interest from clubs also circling around Dexter Fowler. And that’s making it tough for the Blue Jays to deal, since there’s nothing left in the system to replace those assets. Like-for-like makes no sense.
It’s a safe bet that this evolving player market is being watched closely by two Blue Jays in particular. In a world where Joaquin Benoit gets $7.5 million from a bad club like the Philadelphia Phillies and Brett Cecil is getting four years, what do you think closer Roberto Osuna will be worth if he stays healthy and hits free agency at 26 or 27? Yikes.
On the flip side, a penny for the thoughts of the Blue Jays’ Josh Donaldson, who will be a free agent at the age of 32 in a class that includes Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, among others? Harper’s camp has already suggested they’ll be looking for a $400-million deal. Laugh, but he’s represented by Scott Boras. And he’ll be 27. I asked Pat Gillick whether teams were already planning for that free-agent winter.
“They’d better be,” he responded.
The good news for Donaldson is that Dan Lozano, the same agent who has landed over $70 million worth of contracts for Carlos Beltran since he turned 35, represents the third baseman. Lozano is a tough S.O.B., but is considered to be one of the most astute readers of the market by general managers, and based on the sorry song and dance that Donaldson’s Blue Jays teammates Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion have gone through this winter with agents who have left many in the lobby shaking their heads, that’s almost like money in Donaldson’s pocket.
The game’s changed on and off the field. As Atkins said Wednesday, analytical tools are allowing teams to zero in on what he calls “total player.” The industry is moving towards a new consistency, he believes, with teams “understanding players better.”
I remember watching Derek Jeter play out his career and commenting to a Blue Jays executive that it was a shame that his skills seemed so threadbare. “Nah,” the executive responded, “that’s how 40 is supposed to look. That’s how it looked before steroids; that’s how it used to look.”
So true: and now 28 is the new 28 – the new “old” 28.