It’s often the stars who dominate the headlines as every new MLB season gets underway, but it’s the lesser-known players who are often the most intriguing. With that in mind, here’s a look at the top 10 candidates to break out in 2016.
1. Michael Conforto, OF, New York Mets
The numbers in Conforto’s 56-game taste of the majors were intriguing: an .841 OPS with nine home runs, 14 doubles and three homers in 12 feast-or-famine playoff games, when he had a .235 OBP — but posted a 1.046 OPS in the World Series, becoming the third-youngest player in history with a multi-homer game. But he had just 15 regular-season appearances against left-handed pitchers in 2015, and the kid gloves will come off this season as a full-timer. He’ll see time in right field during the spring, but is ticketed for left.
2. Anthony DeSclafani, RHP, Cincinnati Reds
Part of the return the Miami Marlins received from the Toronto Blue Jays in the Jose Reyes trade, DeSclafani was traded to the Reds and an effective September set himself up for 2016. DeSclafani’s 4.05 earned run average must be put in context: despite being comfortably in the top 40 in generating soft contact, he was hurt by a .318 average on balls in play. DeSclafani hits 96 mph, has a slider strikeout rate that compares favourably to Dallas Kuechel, and found a curve in September.
3. Randal Grichuk, OF, St. Louis Cardinals
Every season, the Cardinals find a guy and this season it could be Grichuk, who underwent hernia surgery in December, ending a miserable three months that also saw him sustain an elbow strain in August and look like a one-handed hitter when he returned. Grichuk had been a force for three months before the injury, slugging .529, and most projections have him slicing down his strikeout rate by seven per cent.
4. Raisel Iglesias, RHP, Cincinnati Reds
The 26-year-old right-hander was a reliever in Cuba but his four-pitch mix convinced the Reds to make him a starter. He was dominant in the second half, averaging 10.4 strikeouts and 2.6 walks per nine innings, and managed a home ERA of 3.60 at Great American Ball Park. He was the first major league rookie to strike out 10 in three consecutive games since Hideo Nomo in 1995, and his stuff will play well despite a hitter-friendly park and bad team. He ties up righty hitters and his change-up will become an equalizer against lefties.
5. Ender Inciarte, OF, Atlanta Braves
A 25-year-old left-handed hitter who was acquired from the Arizona Diamondbacks in the Shelby Miller trade, Inciarte is expected to be at the top of the order and play centre field after looking good at all three outfield positions for the Diamondbacks. Inciarte doesn’t hit for power (10 home runs in 1,008 plate appearances over two seasons), but he had the sixth-best contact rate in baseball, doesn’t hit fly balls and uses the entire field. Given the way the Braves are approaching the season, he could be a trade chip at the deadline.
6. Trevor May, RHP, Minnesota Twins
After a disappointing 2014 season, May exploded after moving into the back end of the bullpen, cutting his walk rate in half and dropping his ERA from 4.43 as a starter to 2.87, with 10.6 strikeouts per nine innings. May’s rate of strikeouts, walks and home runs (22.4 per cent, 5.3 per cent and 2.2 per cent, respectively) were significantly better than league average. Much like the Toronto Blue Jays, the Twins have depth if not necessarily a died-in-the-wool ace. May is a slightly older version of Aaron Sanchez.
7. Rougned Odor, 2B, Texas Rangers
Ask the Blue Jays how much of a pain he can be. Odor’s punchless start to 2015 saw him sent to the minors on May 8 before returning in June, posting a .235 isolated power average and .305 batting average on balls in play. His selectivity returned and he could be an intriguing offensive contributor out of the bottom of the Rangers order or in a more responsible offensive role. He’ll be pressed, too: Hanser Alberto and Jurickson Profar give the Rangers options at the position.
8. David Peralta, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks
Now three years into a conversion from pitching, the 28-year-old lefty hitter has a .301 average and .842 OPS through three seasons. But the key to his success is the quality of his at-bats: he was third in the majors in batted balls hit over 100 miles per hour and had a hard-hit percentage over 30 per cent to all fields. That power manifests itself in fly balls. Peralta is expected to bat cleanup behind Paul Goldschmidt in a team focused on winning immediately; he’ll have plenty of opportunity to pull up his numbers against lefty pitchers.
9. Jonathan Schoop, 2B, Baltimore Orioles
A 24-year-old right-handed hitter with 32 home runs in 774 at-bats, Schoop’s 2015 was ruined by a serious right knee injury just 10 games into the season. Possessed with one of the most powerful infield arms in the game, Schoop is a feast-or-famine power-hitter: he misses a lot, can hit it far when he does make contact … but is also capable of looking overmatched against refined pitching. A good sign? Schoop’s percentage of pitches swung at inside the strike zone increased from 68.3 to 81.7.
10. Corey Seager, SS, Los Angeles Dodgers
He’ll start the season as the prohibitive favourite for National League rookie of the year and the only long-term question about Seager is when the larger-than-usual shortstop is moved to third base. Scouts marvel at the technical soundness of his swing — which allows him to make good contact — and in a taste of the majors last season he showed a better-than-expected walk rate. For all the money the Dodgers spend, Seager could be the cost-effective difference maker.