TORONTO – In recent seasons the Toronto Blue Jays‘ roster has offered a subtle reminder of the talent available at the non-tender deadline.
Russell Martin and Edwin Encarnacion were once non-tendered on the same day in 2010, and Jose Bautista narrowly escaped the same fate on a couple of occasions. Ultimately all three players re-built their value in short order and became fixtures on the 2015-16 Blue Jays teams that reached the ALCS.
Ongoing CBA talks could complicate matters, but assuming there’s no work stoppage, teams will have until Friday to decide whether to retain arbitration eligible players. The 11:59 ET deadline creates pressure and opportunity all at once: pressure for teams wary of losing potential star players and opportunity for teams seeking value.
A closer look at the Blue Jays’ arbitration eligible players shows that they’re in little danger of losing impact talent. Based on the projected arbitration salaries at MLB Trade Rumors, all four eligible players can reasonably expect to be tendered.
Starter Marcus Stroman ($3.5 million projected salary) will be an easy tender after a 200-inning season, and useful bench pieces Darwin Barney ($1.6 million) and Ezequiel Carrera ($1.2 million) don’t appear to be particularly tough calls either.
That leaves Aaron Loup, who’s projected to earn $1.2 million after a season spent mostly at triple-A. When Loup did pitch at the big league level he did so with diminished velocity while posting a 5.02 ERA. Rarely did the Blue Jays call on the left-hander in high-leverage moments, an indication that team decision-makers have limited confidence in his ability to record big outs.
Even so, it makes sense for the Blue Jays to tender Loup, who’s easily their most experienced left-hander now that Brett Cecil has signed in St. Louis. Loup’s experience makes him more of a known commodity than Matt Dermody and Chad Girodo, the other internal options the Blue Jays have from the left side. A salary of $1 million-plus wouldn’t prevent the Blue Jays from making other moves, and because arbitration salaries aren’t fully guaranteed, the Blue Jays could theoretically cut Loup in spring training and pay just a fraction of the deal. All told, he’s worth the tender at this point in the view of a rival executive.
If the Blue Jays do tender contracts to all of their eligible players, they’ll be positioned to take advantage of other teams’ cast-offs. Chris Carter could warrant a look after a 41-home run season in Milwaukee, and other quality position players will inevitably join him in free agency. Intriguing relievers become available every year and discarded catchers could flood a market that already includes plenty of backstops. An influx of options behind the plate would only help the Blue Jays, who need a backup for Martin, but may be inclined to spend their available resources on the outfield or bullpen.
There’s really no such thing as a splashy non-tender pickup, but Friday’s deadline will at least infuse the market with options. In that sense it’s a day of opportunity for a Blue Jays front office that still has plenty of work still ahead.
