Numbers suggest Reyes is part of Jays’ solution

Jose-Reyes;-Toronto-Blue-Jays;-MLB

Toronto Blue Jays' Jose Reyes hits an hits an RBI single. (Frank Franklin II/AP)

During his time with the Toronto Blue Jays, the perception of Jose Reyes has fluctuated considerably, reaching perhaps its lowest point in recent days.

The 31-year-old shortstop has struggled in the field since returning from the disabled list on May 25, creating speculation about whether a position switch could be in his future.

While Reyes has not performed well defensively, a closer look into what he brings in each facet of the game suggests that reports of his demise have been greatly exaggerated.

As a bat-first shortstop Reyes is a rare breed, but value is value whether it’s accumulated through hitting, glovework, or running the bases.

Although his first 109 plate appearances of the season have been uninspiring, it’s too small a sample to be very predictive. Since joining the Blue Jays he’s consistently been one of the best hitting shortstops in game by batting average, OPS, and wRC+ a park-adjusted metric that measures total offensive output.

Time Period AVG SS Rank OPS SS Rank wRC+ SS Rank
2013 .296 3rd .780 5th 113 6th
2014 .287 T-4th .726 9th 102 T-10th
2015 .284 9th .652 18th 78 T-20th
Jays career .290 3rd .738 6th 104 7th

Reyes is one of the very few shortstops in the game who is an above-average hitter, and should his production close in on his career norms this season he’ll be an important cog in the Blue Jays’ lineup.

That said, Reyes’s plate discipline is worth watching going forward. He’s walked only three times this year and has struck out an uncharacteristic 17.4 percent of the time.

If those numbers continue he would have a hard time being productive, but at this point it’s much safer to bet on his body of work than recent results, especially given that he was playing hurt earlier in the season.

On the defensive side criticism of Reyes is fairly valid. Whether it’s his age, the fact he’s had to play through injury, or some combination of the two, his work in the field has lagged behind shortstops around the league according to UZR, DRS, and Fielding Percentage.

Time Period UZR SS Rank DRS SS Rank FP SS Rank
2013 -5.3 27th -4 25th .974 18th
2014 -6.5 18th -16 21st .966 18th
2015 -1.9 24th -4 T-25th .947 T-29th
Jays career -13.7 19th -24 19th .967 T-18th

Reyes has not been strong defensively in his time with the Blue Jays. However, a recent cluster of errors has magnified the issue.

There is a significant difference between being below-average at a position and being unable to man it.  Reyes may not have the range of many of his counterparts, but he has a strong arm and there’s no reason to believe his miscues on routine plays are anything more than a blip.

When good offensive output is combined with sub-par defensive play the result is unsurprisingly an average shortstop, but that label doesn’t do Reyes justice because it doesn’t take his legs into account. The days of Reyes stealing 60 plus bases are well in the rear-view mirror, but he remains a dangerous and efficient runner.

Time Period SB SS Rank CS SS Rank BsR SS Rank
2013 15 T-9th 6 T-8th 1.1 22nd
2014 30 2nd 2 T-22nd 8.3 1st
2015 4 T-9th  0 N/A 0.8 14th
Jays career 49 7th 8 T-14th 10.2 3rd

His raw stolen-base totals are not what they once were, but he’s improved at picking his spots. Last season he very quietly became one of only nine players in the last 50 years to steal 30 or more bases and get caught less than three times.

Despite his sterling record on the base paths, he has come under fire for making outs on the bases this year.

In Minnesota he committed the cardinal sin of making the final out of an inning at third base.

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While Reyes picked a poor time to make an aggressive decision, the gamble itself made sense. He was betting against a 39-year-old Torii Hunter running the ball down in the gap and making a strong relay. The result was not good, but the bet could have been worse.

Two days later he tried to stretch a single into a double, and cost the Blue Jays a run by running into an out just before Josh Donaldson hit a home run.

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Once again the timing was dubious, but the decision was logical. This play was close enough to require a review, and in order to get Reyes Twins’ outfielder Eddie Rosario had to make an accurate throw from a horizontal position immediately after a sliding catch attempt.

Neither of these plays seem to suggest Reyes has lost his judgement or his wheels, the Twins simply made good plays to retire him.

As a starting shortstop Reyes is not without his flaws. His limitations in the field and risk-taking on the bases have undoubtedly hurt the Blue Jays lately. However, playing poorly for a short stretch is not necessarily indicative of wholesale skill erosion.

In his 13th season Reyes is not the superstar he with the New York Mets, even if he’s paid like it. That doesn’t mean he’s no longer one of the better shortstops in the game, blemishes and all.

For a team trying to climb back into the playoff race, a player of Reyes’s calibre is much more likely to be part of the solution than the problem.

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