TORONTO – The Baltimore Orioles deserve credit for getting this far: after nearly four months of baseball they’re atop the American League East.
But as division leads go, theirs seems particularly precarious, and not only because their 0.5 game lead over the Toronto Blue Jays is the smallest among baseball’s six divisions.
There’s also the fact that their starting pitchers rank 27th among the 30 MLB teams with a 4.98 ERA. Included in that rotation: Yovani Gallardo, who has a 5.37 ERA, Ubaldo Jimenez, who has a 7.06 ERA and Dylan Bundy, who has all of three big league starts to his name.
On paper, there’s a simple solution for Dan Duquette, Baltimore’s executive VP of baseball operations: trade for a starting pitcher. In reality, though, Duquette faces a more complex challenge.
First of all, the market for starting pitchers may be the most over-crowded, over-priced corner of the summer trade market. Look no further than the trade that sent potential Orioles target Andrew Cashner to Miami for evidence that prices are inflated. The Marlins parted with well-regarded prospects Josh Naylor and Luis Castillo in the deal for Cashner, a rental with a 4.76 ERA.
Secondly, there’s the fact that the Orioles don’t have the kind of high-end trade chips that teams like the Red Sox and Rangers do. “Baltimore has guys, but they would not be elite in my opinion,” one scout for an American League team said.
To be fair, the Orioles do have a whole lot going for them despite the glaring weaknesses in their rotation. Chris Tillman’s putting together a bounce-back season with a 14-3 record and a 3.47 ERA in 132.1 innings. Without him, Baltimore might not even be contending, let alone leading the division.
“He’s the ace of our staff,” centre fielder Adam Jones said. “He wants to be that guy. He’s just got more and more experience, able to trust himself even more — trust everything he’s throwing. He’s got that bulldog mentality, too.”
As much as Baltimore’s rotation has struggled, their bullpen remains one of the best in the game. Led by All-Stars Zach Britton and Brad Brach, Orioles relievers ranked fourth in baseball with a 3.09 ERA entering play Friday.
Then there’s the offence, which leads baseball with 152 home runs thanks to the likes of Manny Machado, Chris Davis and Mark Trumbo. That home run power has typically translated to lots of scoring, though the Orioles have scuffled at the plate of late, getting runners on without scoring them.
“We’re not capitalizing on our opportunities right now,” Jones said. “We’re generating a lot of opportunities, we just haven’t capitalized. As long as you are continuously able to generate the opportunity, you’re going to break through. The concern comes when you can’t generate the opportunity.”
As Jones points out, there are no easy outs in Baltimore’s lineup. That depth allows manager Buck Showalter to use Jones in the leadoff spot with shortstop J.J. Hardy acting like a second leadoff bat at the bottom of the order.
“It’s about run production, especially if you’ve got a deep enough lineup where you have someone (productive) in the nine hole,” Showalter said.
So despite Baltimore’s recent slump, scoring runs shouldn’t be a long-term issue for this club. With three days remaining until the deadline, the biggest questions surrounding this team still revolve around pitching.
“It’s still July, so we’ve got a lot more baseball to play,” starter Kevin Gausman said after allowing six runs in Friday’s loss. More than enough time remains for any one of three teams to pull ahead in the AL East.
If Duquette adds to the rotation meaningfully, the Orioles may well hold off the Blue Jays and Red Sox. Otherwise, that division lead will continue to seem pretty shaky.
