Just before the regular season ended in October, I sat down with a scout whose judgment I really trust and told him how much trouble I was having with my AL Cy Young Award ballot.
David Price and Dallas Keuchel were in a virtual statistical dead heat in all the numbers that count, delivering the goods while helping carry their teams to the post-season. Other people I’d polled as part of my research were split on who should win, too.
Some argued for Keuchel, saying his contributions to a young team on the rise should carry more weight. Others pointed to Price, arguing his brilliant 9-1 run with a 2.30 ERA in 11 starts for the Toronto Blue Jays after his acquisition from the Detroit Tigers, including a 3-0 mark in four starts against the New York Yankees, was the tipping point.
David Price | Dallas Keuchel | |
---|---|---|
Record | 18-5 | 20-8 |
Starts | 32 | 33 |
Innings pitched | 220.1 | 232 |
ERA | 2.45 | 2.48 |
WHIP | 1.08 | 1.02 |
Strikeouts | 225 | 216 |
So I asked the scout, how do you break the tie?
“I always put more stock at what a guy does against winning teams,” he said. “Check the numbers there, and that may give you an answer.”
The numbers provided some differentiation.
Price made 21 of his 32 starts against teams .500 or better, compared to 17 of 33 for Keuchel, and quite obviously the more a pitcher faces tougher opponents, the more taxing his load.
During those outings, Price went 13-3 with a 2.35 ERA over 145.1 innings, with a 1.115 WHIP while his ERA was actually higher, 2.64, in his 11 starts against sub-.500 teams, meaning he didn’t pad stats against weaklings. Keuchel, meanwhile, was 12-3 with a 2.52 ERA and 1.045 WHIP against winning teams, while posting a 2.44 ERA against losing clubs.
Another difference between the two: Their numbers in high-leverage spots.
Over 159 plate appearances in such situations, Price limited opposing batters to a .169/.219/.225 slash line, while, in over 152 plate appearances, Keuchel’s slash line was .237/.318/.328.
Price allowed no home runs, walked only 10 and struck out 44 in those circumstances. Keuchel surrendered three home runs, walked 17 and struck out 23.
Splitting hairs? Perhaps, but that’s how close, at least to these eyes, the two exceptional and deserving seasons were.
All that being said, here’s my ballot:
- David Price (TOR)
- Dallas Keuchel (HOU)
- Chris Sale (CWS)
- Corey Kluber (CLE)
- Chris Archer (TB)