The Toronto Blue Jays and the Texas Rangers will face off in the American League Division Series beginning Thursday at Globe Life Park in Arlington, Texas. It’ll be a rematch of last year’s heated affair—which produced the most iconic bat flip in baseball history—so we’re likely to see some fireworks.
Before tempers flare and bats get flipped, though, we wanted to know how these two teams stack up against each other. Here’s a look:
OUTFIELD
The Blue Jays outfield, depending on who ends up at DH, is likely to be a mix of Kevin Pillar, Michael Saunders, Jose Bautista, Ezequiel Carrera and Melvin Upton Jr. Pillar is a guy to be counted on for game-saving, awe-inspiring catches, while Saunders, Carrera and Upton are also solid defensively.
The Rangers are likely to field a mix of Ian Desmond, Carlos Gomez, Carlos Beltran, Nomar Mazara, Jared Hoying and Ryan Rua. They could also include Shin-Shoo Choo, who missed time after undergoing surgery to repair a fracture in his left forearm in mid-August. The 33-year-old right-fielder returned to play on Sept. 30, going just 2-for-12 over three games. But if he’s feeling healthy, the veteran could be a difference-maker.
While both teams have strong options in the outfield, judging by FanGraphs WAR, Texas—assuming Choo is in the pack and can perform as expected—has a slightly mightier lineup overall.
EDGE: TEXAS
1B
Edwin Encarnacion made the most appearances at first base for Toronto this season, and he’s likely to slot in at the position in the ALDS. Encarnacion finished the regular season tied for most RBI in the American League. The 33-year-old slugged 42 home runs and posted an OPS+ of 133. He also bashed his way into Toronto sports lore on Tuesday night with a three-run walk-off homer. While Moreland is a slightly better player defensively, his OPS+ for the season was just 88.
EDGE: TORONTO
2B
Rougned Odor, a.k.a. “Stinky,” is well-known to baseball fans for the Punch Heard ’Round the World. The second-baseman is a hard-nosed player who gets under opponents’ skin. His numbers are fairly similar to those of Devon Travis, who’s in the midst of his first MLB post-season. Travis, though, has the advantage with a 108 OPS+ compared to Odor’s 105, and a 1.7 FanGraphs defensive rating compared to Odor’s -10.1.
EDGE: TORONTO
SS
Elvis Andrus is a skilled shortstop capable of meaningful plays and hits, though Toronto fans may remember him most for the defensive errors he made during routine plays in Game 5 of last year’s ALDS.
Andrus is an excellent player, but Troy Tulowitzki has the edge with a 2.7 FanGraphs WAR on the season (compared to Andrus’s 2.2).
EDGE: TORONTO
3B
Adrian Beltre is the Rangers’ best hitter. The 37-year-old hit .300/.358/.521 with 32 homers and 104 RBI this season, and will no doubt someday be inducted into baseball’s Hall of Fame. His FanGraphs WAR this season was a mighty 6.2.
Blue Jays third baseman Josh Donaldson, though, boasts a WAR of 7.6, which is just ridiculous.
EDGE: TORONTO
C
While Russell Martin has been a valuable leader for Toronto, and matched up against most catchers in the league he’d fare well, the Rangers boast Jonathan Lucroy, who leads all qualified MLB catchers in FanGraphs WAR.
Lucroy, who was traded to Texas from Milwaukee this summer after making headlines for vetoing a move to Cleveland, posted an OPS of .855 this season, best among all qualified catchers in baseball (Martin, for context, posted an OPS of .733).
EDGE: TEXAS
DH
It’s tricky to know who will slot in at DH for each team. During Toronto’s wild-card game with Baltimore, manager John Gibbons showed that he’s willing to select his DH based on matchups.
Assuming Jose Bautista DHs for the Blue Jays and Carlos Beltran DHs for the Rangers, it’s a tight race. Bautista, who had the most plate appearances at DH for Toronto this season, had a rough year, missing time due to multiple injuries. He’s been on fire of late, though, showing that he’s still capable of big hits when it matters most.
Beltran, who was traded to Texas from the Yankees this summer, posted better numbers than Bautista on the season overall, with an OPS+ of 122 to Bautista’s 117. He’s been hitting slightly less well since joining the Rangers, though. He’s slashed .280/.325/.451 in 52 games with his new team.
EDGE: TORONTO
ROTATION
The Rangers boast a solid rotation. Cole Hamels gets the start for Game 1; he leads the staff with an ERA of 3.32. Yu Darvish, who has fared well in his return from Tommy John surgery, leads both the Rangers and Blue Jays with a FIP of 3.09. He’ll get the nod in Game 2.
Both teams will carry four starters in the series in order to allow for an extra reliever or position player. The Rangers will probably opt for Colby Lewis and Martin Perez. Both Hamels and Perez are lefties, which means there likely isn’t a spot for Derek Holland, who’ll also probably miss out on a bullpen spot, given that the team already has two left-handed relievers in Jake Diekman and Alex Claudio—and given that Toronto’s lineup is dominated by right-handers.
The Blue Jays rotation carried an AL-leading ERA of 3.78 this season and was a major factor in the team’s successes of late, keeping the team in games even when the offence was uncharacteristically quiet. Marco Estrada gets the start in Game 1, followed by Aaron Sanchez, J.A. Happ and Marcus Stroman.
EDGE: TORONTO
BULLPEN
Toronto’s biggest weakness in this series is its bullpen. Roberto Osuna (ERA: 2.68) has been a lights-out closer for the Blue Jays, though his health is a concern given how much the team had to use him just to reach the wild-card game, and given, of course, his exit in the 10th inning on Tuesday.
Behind Osuna, there have been some inconsistent performances. The team is likely to bring along some combination of Francisco Liriano, Joe Biagini, Jason Grilli, Brett Cecil, Scott Feldman, Aaron Loup and Ryan Tepera.
The Rangers have a few more reliable relievers at their disposal than they did for last year’s ALDS. They’ve also got one of the best closers in the game in Sam Dyson (ERA: 2.43)—though Bautista proved last season that even he has weaknesses.
The team’s pack of relievers will most likely include Dyson, Matt Bush, Tony Barnette, Jake Diekman, Aluex Claudio, Keone Kela and Jeremy Jeffress.
EDGE: TEXAS
MANAGER
Jeff Banister led his team to an AL-best 95-67 record this season. The 52-year-old, named AL Manager of the Year in his first season with the team last year, boasts an overall winning percentage of .565 across his two seasons of managing in the majors.
John Gibbons, meanwhile, has more experience as an MLB manager—with nine seasons under his belt—though his overall record is less winning at .512. This one’s a close matchup.
EDGE: TEXAS
OVERALL EDGE: TORONTO
