What defines a comeback? For the purpose of our discussion, we will adopt the criteria used by Major League Baseball in determining the comeback players in each league: a player judged to have “re-emerged on the baseball field during a given season.”
Last season, the winners were Rick Porcello of the Boston Red Sox – who won the American League Cy Young Award and had 22 wins after losing 15 games in 2015 – and Anthony Rendon, the Washington Nationals third baseman who hit .270 with 20 home runs in 2016 after playing in just 80 games the year before due to an MCL sprain and oblique injury.
Injuries, illness, a reversal of form … all can contribute to a player being a candidate for comeback player of the year. Here are five players who are poised to make a run for the 2017 honours:
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Matt Harvey, New York Mets
There’s a reason Mets fans cheered every time Harvey hit 97 mph on the radar gun during Grapefruit League games in Port St. Lucie: a franchise with memories of the wasted potential of ‘Generation K’ – Bill Pulsipher, Jason Isringhausen and Paul Wilson’ – has been life and death to keep its starry, young rotation healthy.
Harvey is making his second big comeback – he missed 2015 with Tommy John surgery after posting a 2.27 ERA in 26 starts in 2014, tying for fourth in National League Cy Young Award voting, and was shut down last season with thoracic outlet syndrome after posting a 1.468 WHIP in 17 starts. He’s shown some commitment to throwing his secondary stuff this spring, which is notable if he’s going to have to become less of a thrower and more of a pitcher.
Greg Holland, Colorado Rockies
Holland’s 2015 season was on fumes even before he underwent Tommy John surgery in October of that year and missed the entire 2016 season. The closer signed a one-year, $7 million contract after posting a career 2.42 ERA in six seasons with the Kansas City Royals and has averaged 12.1 strikeouts per nine innings. He was a beast in the 2014 post-season, when the Royals went to the World Series, going seven-for-seven in save opportunities with a 0.82 ERA.
A bit of a leap of faith here, but if the Rockies somehow factor in the race he’ll get his share of attention, and given the money being thrown around on relievers it wouldn’t take much to build up his value in the marketplace.
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Lance McCullers, Jr., Houston Astros
Limited to 14 starts after an elbow sprain in a game against the Toronto Blue Jays ended his season on Aug. 2, McCullers is slotted in as the Astros’ No. 2 starter and finished spring sitting around 93-95 mph with a change-up to go along with a power curveball that he was throwing 50 per cent of the time before his injury – a pitch that resulted in a 20.9 per-cent swinging strike percentage.
Scouts in Florida have a good feeling about this right-handed starter, who will have a major say on an Astros team facing some hefty expectations. McCullers was comfortable enough this spring to experiment with a variety of circle change-ups and to give in to the organization’s suggestion that he drop his arm slot to clean up his mechanics and address what were some troubling control issues.
Mike Moustakas, Kansas City Royals
A collision with teammate Alex Gordon in foul territory resulted in a torn medial collateral ligament and just 113 plate appearances in 2016 after a breakout 2015, when the third baseman slashed .284/.348/.470 with 22 home runs and a strikeout rate of just 12.4 per cent. Moustakas showed signs that 2015 was not a mirage – his isolated power was .260 at the time of the injury and he’d hit into some hard luck – and he’ll be motivated entering his walk year.
It seems like he’s been around forever, but Moustakas won’t turn 30 until the end of next season. Continuing the development he showed before his injury should make him immune to the fear of mid-30ish sluggers that teams showed this winter, and could position him to cash in from teams looking to add a ‘bridge’ free-agent to get them to that once-in-a-lifetime crop following the 2018 season.
Pablo Sandoval, Boston Red Sox
A reformed tub of goo who essentially disappeared after early-season surgery to repair his left labrum, a much-slimmer (read: under 250 pounds) Sandoval showed up 11 days early to Red Sox camp and even managed to hit a home run off a left-hander this spring (Blake Snell of the Tampa Bay Rays) for the first time since taking Tom Gorzelanny deep in August, 2014.
Spring statistics mean squat, but Sandoval hammered the ball in Grapefruit League play, and going into the third year of a five-year, $95-million deal, nobody expects a great deal other than that he perhaps do something – anything – to prevent this from looking like the worst contract in Red Sox history while improving on a weakness in an otherwise robust lineup (Boston third basemen ranked last in the American League with a .685 OPS in 2016).
Moving from San Francisco to Fenway Park was supposed to help Sandoval’s performance, even though his right-handed swing had deteriorated gradually with the Giants to the point where he has actually abandoned switch-hitting. Let’s see if a thinner, happier Kung Fu Panda can finally produce.
