As you may or may not know, Ryan Thibodaux — @NotMrTibbs on Twitter — has been providing an invaluable service for a number of years now, tracking publicly known ballots as the BBWAA conducts its annual Hall of Fame voting.
Thibodaux posts individual ballots to Twitter, and accumulates all of his data into a comprehensive spreadsheet which provides all the information anyone could possibly desire as the BBWAA works through its process.
It’s fascinating to watch the results develop as Thibodaux collects more and more votes. And the early returns from the 2018 ballot — which features 33 candidates, including several notable newcomers such as Chipper Jones, Jim Thome and Scott Rolen — are revealing some very interesting developments. Such as:
• There is a possibility the BBWAA could elect a historically large class in 2018. Currently, five players are trending strongly towards induction: Jones, Thome, Validimir Guerrero, Edgar Martinez, and Trevor Hoffman. And four more are within six percentage points or less of earning the 75% of ballots required: Roger Clemens, Mike Mussina, Barry Bonds, and Curt Schilling. Now, as Thibodeaux points out, ballots tend to get smaller as he continues to collect, and he predicts the current percentages will likely drop from this point forward. Still, a five-player class would be one of the largest in the modern era.
• The two premier debut candidates, Jones and Thome, appear to be shoo-ins to join the exclusive club of first-ballot hall-of-famers. While voters have generally become more liberal with their ballots in recent years, there have still only been eight players to be inducted in their first year on the ballot since 2010.
• Guerrero and Hoffman, who each came excruciatingly close to induction in 2017 (Hoffman needed only five more votes, Guerrero needed 15), are both trending towards crossing the 75% threshold this year. Guerrero in particular has surged strongly since 2017, and will need to be selected on only 70% of remaining ballots to reach the Hall.
• Martinez and Canadian Larry Walker have also made significant strides in 2018, with Martinez appearing on the ballots of 13 voters who didn’t vote for him last year, and Walker doing even better as 18 members who didn’t support him in 2017 have checked off his name. Time is of the essence for these two, as Martinez is in his ninth year on the ballot, and Walker his eighth. Players can remain on the ballot for a maximum of 10 years.
• This likely won’t be the year that Bonds and Clemens, two controversial candidates who were linked to steroid use in their careers, make it over 75%. They’re currently hovering just below the threshold, and it’s unlikely they’ll see a late surge. But they both stand to improve on the 60% they each received last year, as first-time voters nearly unanimously feature the pair on their ballots. Their candidacies will be very interesting to watch over the remaining four years they each have on the ballot.
• As Sports Illustrated’s Jay Jaffe excellently laid out, the underrated Scott Rolen has a very strong case for being a hall of famer. It’s extremely unlikely it’ll happen this year, as he’s appeared on only 12% of the ballots Thibodaux has collected thus far. But Rolen should get to stick around on the ballot with more than 5% of the vote. Andruw Jones and Omar Vizquel are other notable first-timers who are trending strongly towards staying on the ballot.
With only a little more than 20% of ballots currently known, it’s still early days. As Thibodaux continues to accumulate more ballots, a clearer picture of what this year’s class will look like will emerge. But the results thus far point to a very interesting year for hall of fame watchers.
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