TORONTO – The luxury of having the American League’s stingiest rotation is that the Toronto Blue Jays can turn to a high quality starter no matter whom they put on the mound in Tuesday’s wild-card game against the Baltimore Orioles.
Manager John Gibbons may have tipped his hand when Francisco Liriano warmed in the bullpen during the eighth-inning of Sunday’s 2-1 victory over the Boston Red Sox, suggesting that Marcus Stroman would be the man getting the ball in the win-or-go-home contest.
The thinking at the end of last week was that Stroman would make the start, with Liriano available out of the bullpen behind him if needed.
But there’s a case to be made for both pitchers, given that the Orioles’ .234 batting average and .692 OPS versus left-handers were both last in the American League. As well, Liriano was brilliant against them last week, when he struck out 10 batters over 6.1 shutout innings in what finished as a 3-2 loss.
Compare that to Baltimore’s .783 OPS against right-handers, second to Boston in the AL, and their .263 batting average, which was third. Of their league-leading 253 homers, 204 came against righties, but in a 4-0 win last Thursday over Stroman, they could only bleed him for four runs on nine hits and two walks over seven innings.
More food for thought is that the Orioles generally gave Stroman a hard time this season, as he’s 1-2 with a 7.04 ERA in four starts against them, allowing 18 earned runs over 23 innings. Much of that damage came during a seven-run, 3.2-inning mess June 19 at Baltimore, with his best start coming April 19 when he allowed three runs over seven frames.
Still, Stroman earned the Blue Jays’ big-game trust during the post-season last year, when he started Games 2 and 5 of the American League Division Series against the Texas Rangers. He allowed a total of five earned runs over 13 innings in those two outings, and then beat the Kansas City Royals in Game 3 of the American League Championship Series, when he gave up four runs in 6.1 innings.
There’s a value in being battle-tested, and the Blue Jays can be confident that he’ll throw strikes.
Though Liriano is on a strong run of pitching of late, allowing a mere four earned runs over 24.2 innings over his last four starts, the walk monster can be a concern.
The 32-year-old lefty has had that beast tamed of late – with some help from Russell Martin effectively framing a repertoire with vicious movement – and he’s had some post-season success of his own to consider.
In 2013, he pitched the Pittsburgh Pirates past the Cincinnati Reds in the wild-card game, allowing just a run on four hits and a walk with five strikeouts. He followed that up with six innings of two-run ball against the St. Louis Cardinals in the National League Division Series.
The Orioles can be a free-swinging team and Liriano may be able to exploit that. So too, perhaps, can Stroman, whose sinker induces grounder after grounder when it’s on.
And both are in fine form right now, making the decision all the more difficult.
Getting it right is crucial, obviously, and an incentive is that the Blue Jays will be able to throw J.A. Happ on regular rest or Marco Estrada on extra rest in Game 1 of the American League Division Series against the Texas Rangers, should they get there. Whoever doesn’t pitch the opener could go in Game 2 Friday, unless the Blue Jays decide to start Aaron Sanchez, pushing the other starter back.
Regardless, they’d be positioned ideally from a rotation standpoint for a first-round rematch with the Rangers, whom they beat in five games last year.
But first things first is the wild-card game, and a decision that could decide whether or not they get there.
