Were it not for the fact that he’d be rooting against the Blue Jays, Earl Weaver would be spinning in his grave at their six-man rotation.
In the 1984 book Weaver on Strategy, the legendary Baltimore Orioles manager enumerated a number of essential “laws” of baseball, many of which would still be perceived as progressive among today’s analysts.
Among those commandments was Weaver’s Seventh Law: “It’s easier to find four good starters than five.” Weaver elucidated this maxim in the days when four-man rotations were becoming less common, and as the five-man rotation was becoming the standard. The logic of Weaver’s argument was that the starts you give to your fifth best starting pitcher are starts that you take away from four pitchers who are better than him.
In a 2002 edition of the book, he acknowledged that there would be little chance of ever going back to a four-man rotation because of the reality of players protecting themselves and their careers in the modern game, though in principle, he stood behind the original notion.
So when the Blue Jays announced that they would proceed – at least for now, for the time being, for some as-yet-to-be-determined period – with a six-man rotation, I couldn’t help but wonder what the often-eruptive skipper would have thought, especially since I tend to agree with him.
Moreover, Weaver espoused a nine-man pitching staff, so the concept of a 13 pitchers on the active roster would have certainly sent him to his grave were he not already there.
Indeed, the Blue Jays have needed to use the other half of their roster creatively in recent weeks, when injuries and player limitations have led to unusual usage, such as Darwin Barney’s recent deployments in the outfield. Moreover, John Gibbons has fewer cards in his deck when it comes to playing matchups, since Barney now represents the full extent of his team’s positional flexibility.
Yes, that one extra roster spot matters that much, and in a crucial portion of the schedule, the Blue Jays may need to hold on tight for three weeks, until rosters expand on September 1.
But in spite of being opposed to such a roster configuration in principle, and even after seeing the limitations it imposes, it’s an odd feeling to somehow feel as though a rotation of six starters is the best possible solution for this team in this moment.
With the team’s senior decision makers forced to contend with the mixed blessings of Aaron Sanchez’s exceptional season, it’s no wonder the plan has seemingly weaved to and fro in recent weeks. It’s an almost impossible task to balance a player’s desire to remain in his role with what’s best for his future while also ensuring that the team’s competitiveness in the here and now. Keeping Sanchez in the rotation while at the same time rationing out his workload seems like the best compromise.
Beyond Sanchez, the rotation has a number of concerns as we head down the stretch. Marco Estrada has pitched exceptionally for most of the season, but is seemingly battling recurring physical ailments, and one wonders at times if he will be able to gut out starts through October.
Marcus Stroman is coming off a season in which he threw just 36.1 innings between his late season return and the playoffs. With 2016 having been a greater challenge for the young starter than many would have foreseen, his performance should be worth monitoring as much as Sanchez’s in the final seven weeks of the season.
Two of the veteran pitchers on the staff, R.A. Dickey and the newly-acquired Francisco Liriano, have both pitched like fifth starters for most of the season, and until they string together multiple quality starts, minimizing their workload isn’t the worst option in the short term.
Seemingly, the only pitcher you’d actively want on his regular workload in the coming weeks is J.A. Happ, and hands up all those who figured on that before the season. Hopefully, if the Jays are attempting to find extra rest for the others, they can look for opportunities to keep the unlikely Cy Young candidate on his regular turn.
In principle, a rotation of six starters is not something you’d recommend for any team. But for this team, with this very specific set of circumstances, you can make an argument that it works in the short-term. You might have even been able to convince The Earl of Baltimore, though not without withstanding a showering of incredulous profanity.
