There’s never been a contract like the one Miguel Cabrera will officially sign this morning. Valued at a reported $292 million over ten years, the deal will make Cabrera the highest-paid player in MLB history.
But this isn’t the first time Detroit Tigers president and GM Dave Dombrowski has bet big on Cabrera’s ability. In fact it’s already happened twice.
When the Florida Marlins first signed Cabrera as a skinny 16-year-old shortstop in 1999, Dombrowski was the team’s GM and Al Avila, the Tigers’ current assistant GM, was one of Florida’s top scouting evaluators. They signed Cabrera for $1.9 million — a record contract for a Venezuelan player that stood for nearly a decade.
“He is one of the most-touted prospects out of that country in years,” Dombrowski told the Sun-Sentinel at the time. The Marlins beat the Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Dodgers, Toronto Blue Jays and others for the 180-pound prospect in part because they were willing to spend a record amount for his rights.
The investment paid off, as Cabrera helped the Marlins win the 2003 World Series, then proceeded to average 32 home runs with a .947 OPS over the course of the next four seasons.
Eight years after the Marlins first signed Cabrera, Dombrowski bet on him again. By then, Dombrowski and Avila were in Detroit running the Tigers, who were one year removed from their first World Series appearance in decades. They wanted to return, and they knew Cabrera would help them get there.
The price was steep. The Marlins demanded Detroit’s two top prospects, Cameron Maybin and Andrew Miller. Ultimately Dombrowski decided to bet big on Cabrera again, sacrificing his organization’s best young talent and four complementary players for Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis on December 4, 2007. The Tigers doubled down on Cabrera, locking him up for $152.3 million before he played a regular season game for Detroit.
Again the gamble paid off. The Tigers have reached the American League Championship Series three consecutive times thanks to dominant offensive seasons from Cabrera. He has hit at an incredible .327/.407/.588 clip with Detroit, averaging 38 home runs per season, winning back to back American League MVPs and establishing himself as a future Hall of Famer.
This time, the stakes are different. While $1.9 million is a lot of cash and two top prospects carry immense value, we’re now talking about the biggest contract in the history of pro sports, at least $292 million. (The deal covers the two seasons for which he was already under contract plus eight additional years with two potential vesting options for a maximum commitment of $352 million.)
Cabrera is now baseball’s best hitter — an incredibly valuable player headed for Cooperstown. Yet even elite players see their production decline as they age. So far Cabrera has generated 55 wins above replacement in 11 seasons at a rate of 5.0 WAR per season. For him to generate as much as 4.0 WAR per year over the course of the eight years the Tigers added to his contract, he’ll have to produce at an exceptional rate — even for a Hall of Fame player.
The Hall of Fame includes 150-plus hitters, and only 17 of them have averaged 4.0 WAR during their age 33-40 seasons: Barry Bonds, Edgar Martinez, Chipper Jones and 14 Hall of Famers including Babe Ruth, Willie Mays, Hank Aaron, Ty Cobb, Ted Williams and Stan Musial. Only the best of the best continue hitting at this level until they turn 40.
Of course Cabrera is earning a place among those elite hitters, as Dombrowski noted last summer.
“For my career and players that I’ve been with — and I’ve seen a lot of really great hitters. He’s been the best professional hitter that I’ve been around,” Dombrowski told Sportsnet. “He’s got a chance to go down as one of the all-time greats.”
“When you start talking about some of the all-time greats as time goes on — he’s only 30 years old — Miguel Cabrera will be mentioned with all of them as time progresses.”
At age 30, Cabrera has many productive years ahead of him. Even so, the Tigers are taking on considerable risk by guaranteeing him annual salaries in the $30 million range for the next decade. There’s a good chance this will turn into a bad contract for the Tigers by the time it expires.
It’s a huge investment for Mike Ilitch, but the 84-year-old owner can take solace in two things: he’s locking up baseball’s best hitter, and Dombrowski’s bets on Cabrera have paid off twice before.