TORONTO – The math on this for the Toronto Blue Jays is pretty simple – five years of Troy Tulowitzki for $50 million more than two years of Jose Reyes is a clear win. Both offensively and defensively they get the better shortstop, and even if his game isn’t what it once was after hip surgery, any decline he experiences shouldn’t be as steep as the one Reyes might endure.
What dramatically alters the equation, and, potentially the final summation here for GM Alex Anthopoulos are the three prospects headed to the Colorado Rockies, in particular the high ceiling of Jeff Hoffman, although fellow right-handers Miguel Castro and Jesus Tinoco may make an impact, too.
Factor in the team’s immediate need for pitching help, the possibility that Hoffman might have one day aced the staff, and that elite prospect capital was used to address a position already reasonably manned, and there’s a good amount of risk here, especially if there isn’t more before the non-waiver trade deadline passes at 4 p.m. ET Friday.
The perception all around is that something else is coming.
On its own, the gamble makes sense on a macro level, also serving to insulate the Blue Jays position player core against the potential departures of Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion after the 2016 season. But on a micro level, at this moment, with the way the 2015 team is constituted, pitching was the obvious need.
Why not spend on that?
"We weren’t too thrilled about trading some of our better prospects like we did in this deal for rentals," Anthopoulos said during a news conference Tuesday announcing the deal. "It’s not to say we’re out of the rental market, or we won’t look at it, we’ve had discussions about players only available for two months. That being said, it’s a rare opportunity to get better. Getting better doesn’t have to mean getting a reliever or starter, when you have a chance to get the best player at a respective position, and a guy that brings some intangibles as well, rare opportunity and we wanted to take advantage of it. We’re always focused on the short and long-term, we felt like an acquisition like this addressed both."
Fair, and a valid argument is that an extra run scored is just as good as a run prevented. One rival executive estimated Tulowitzki might be worth an extra win over Reyes for the rest of the year.
That’s something.
Also worth remembering is that this deal comes after a trade with the Cleveland Indians for Carlos Carrasco recently died at the finish line, as Sportsnet first reported Sunday, with Bob Elliott of the Toronto Sun reporting Monday that the return for the Tribe would have been Hoffman, Daniel Norris and Dalton Pompey.
So the Blue Jays did take a shot at landing a long-term starter and it didn’t get done. Waiting for another such opportunity isn’t reason to pass on Tulowitzki, who was coveted by several other teams.
Yet the need in the rotation is real, both now and in the years to come.
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Mark Buehrle and Marco Estrada are both free agents at season’s end and R.A. Dickey, with a club option for $13 million, could join them, which would leave Drew Hutchison, Marcus Stroman, Aaron Sanchez, Roberto Osuna, Daniel Norris and Matt Boyd as the internal options to fill out the staff.
The latter two remain candidates to be dealt before the trade deadline while Hoffman would have been in the running had he stayed, underlining how badly help is needed, something even the new guy has noticed.
"You look at their lineup – they’ve scored the most runs in the league," Tulowitzki, as quoted by MLB.com, told reporters in Chicago. "From what I hear, it’s a good place to hit, especially home runs. I know pitching at times for them has been a struggle. Maybe they’re not done acquiring guys to really make a run."
Anthopoulos hinted at that Tuesday but was at his cryptic best, offering nothing concrete on what might happen before the deadline. He poo-poohed the notion of trading an impact bat from the Blue Jays for an arm – "you never rule anything out but I would say it’s unlikely," said Anthopoulos – while conceding that "we’re still talking to some clubs about some things on the position player side."
A left-fielder like Gerardo Parra of the Milwaukee Brewers, perhaps packaged with young controllable starter Mike Fiers, makes lots of sense. So too does pairing Chicago White Sox right-hander Jeff Samardzija with a 0-3 service time reliever like Zach Putnam. Cincinnati Reds rental Mike Leake would fit the mould if partnered with Jay Bruce, the Blue Jays are on the outfielder’s no-trade list. San Diego Padres starters Andrew Cashner and Tyson Ross both come with control beyond this season, and could come with rental lefty Ian Kennedy or reliever Joaquin Benoit attached.
In the above cases, connecting a longer-term piece to a rental might make the price in prospect capital more palatable, providing something for 2016, and maybe beyond, the way Tulowitzki does.
"This wasn’t a July move, this just happened to be the time we could get him," said Anthopoulos, who began his pursuit of the five-time all-star during the off-season, revisited the Tulowitzki/Reyes concept in May and again at the beginning of July, leading to the trade. "I would have loved to have done it in June or May, I know sometimes fans would like deals to get done sooner, but unless you’re going to do something you really don’t feel comfortable with, at lot of times there are no deals that present themselves or clubs aren’t willing to deal at that time. I just think we got better, for the short and the long-term.
"Ideally you don’t shop in the rental market, that doesn’t mean we’ll rule it out, we’re open to it, but our preference is always to have guys under control that can be here for a while."
In Tulowitzki, they have precisely that, a piece for 2015, and a cornerstone for beyond.