The Toronto Blue Jays won’t be a popular pick to win the American League East this season.
The club failed to address its starting rotation and enters the season with essentially the same roster that won just 74 games in 2013. At the same time, it’s the same core group that many predicted to win the American League last season.
This year, Brett Lawrie won’t be starting the season on the disabled list and the team won’t be relying on the wonky health of Josh Johnson (he’s already on the 15-day disabled list in San Diego). R.A. Dickey had the entire spring to work with his catchers and J.P. Arencibia won’t be around any longer.
For most teams to contend over an entire 162-game season, they need a lot to fall in their favour whether it’s health, luck, or internal improvement. That’s exactly what occurred with the Boston Red Sox last year. You would have been hard pressed to find anyone that would have called them World Series candidate at this time last year.
So you’re telling me there’s a chance?
Maybe. Here’s a look at what the Blue Jays need to go right to contend in the toughest division in baseball (and be warned: it’s a lot):
THE EVERYDAY LINEUP
Health would be an obvious choice for almost every player in this section. Jose Reyes, Melky Cabrera, Jose Bautista and Lawrie all missed significant time with injuries last season and the Blue Jays do not have many suitable replacements ready in the minor leagues or on the bench.
Dioner Navarro, catcher: A successful season from the team’s perspective would start with Navarro playing 100 games. He hasn’t done that since he was a member of the Tampa Bay Rays in 2009.
Edwin Encarnacion, first base: Encarnacion needs to continue to produce the power numbers he has displayed over the past two seasons. It’s fair to expect another 30 home run, 100 RBI season with an OPS around .900.
Ryan Goins, second base:The Jays are banking on Goins to provide vastly improved defence at second. The team got disastrous production from Emilio Bonifacio and Izturis last season.
Jose Reyes, shortstop: The club needs Reyes to have a healthy season in his second year in Toronto. He’s already day-to-day with a hamstring injury and needs to be in top form for the regular season. Having Izturis or Munenori Kawasaki fill in would leave a sizeable gap at the top of the batting order (Kawasaki’s loveable antics aside).
Brett Lawrie, third base: More than anything, the Jays need consistency at the plate from Lawrie. He had an on-base percentage of .364 in the second half last year after posting a .261 OBP in his first 147 at-bats. The club needs Lawrie to take an even bigger step forward in 2014.
Jose Bautista, right field: Durability has become the big question surrounding Bautista. He hasn’t played more than 120 games in either of the past two seasons, but when he’s in the lineup, he’s one of the premier players in the American League.
Colby Rasmus, centre field: The production the Jays got from Rasmus last year was entirely different from his poor results in 2011-12. They cannot afford for him to revert back (and neither can he in a contract year). He posted a career-high WAR, according to Fangraphs, last season.
Melky Cabrera, left field: Cabrera had just three home runs in 88 games in a tough first year with Toronto. So durability comes to mind with the 29-year-old. His speed in left field was an issue last season. How much of that was a result of injuries?
Adam Lind, designated hitter: The Blue Jays need Lind to avoid any long stints on the disabled list this season. They don’t have a great backup DH option on their bench.
THE STARTING ROTATION
R.A. Dickey: No one can reasonably expect another Cy Young performance, but Dickey needs to pitch at a higher level in his second year with the Jays. He quietly had a strong second half in 2013 with an ERA under 4.00 in three of his final four months and close to 180 total strikeouts.
Mark Buehrle: Buehrle has pitched over 200 innings in every season since 2001 and that’s exactly what the Jays will need out of the veteran left-hander. They cannot afford another slow start from Buehrle.
Brandon Morrow: Morrow has the best ‘stuff’ and the highest ceiling in the group. But can he stay on the field? Morrow has only exceeded 146.0 innings once in his big-league career. The Blue Jays will need at least 175-180 innings from Morrow to jump to a playoff level.
Drew Hutchison: Hutchison is another wild card here. He or Morrow must take a large step forward for the Jays to contend. The 23-year-old has posted an impressive spring and the Jays need him to translate that to the regular season. That’s a lot to ask of their youngest starter.
J.A. Happ: Happ shouldn’t be expected to be a huge contributor to the club this season. He’s more of a fringe fifth starter at this point of his career, and could easily be replaced.
THE BULLPEN
With a number of question marks throughout, the Blue Jays need their bullpen to be a strength. It’s an area that has had erratic production on a year-to-year basis but the Jays appear to have a pretty sound group of relief pitchers — at least on paper.
Casey Janssen: Janssen has been brought along slowly in camp but is expected to be ready for Opening Day. The Jays need him in top form. He’s been incredibly consistent the last two years and it would be tough to rely on Santos to fill the closer’s role considering his injury history.
Sergio Santos: Quietly, Santos had more than one strikeout per inning and only four walks in 29 appearances last year. But most importantly, the Jays need Santos to stay healthy. He could be a top-notch power arm at the back of the bullpen.
Steve Delabar/Brett Cecil/Aaron Loup: This group of pitchers once again needs to be the stabilizing force in the middle of the bullpen. Delabar and Cecil may not regain All-Star status, but major regression from either pitcher would hurt the Blue Jays.
