Division series played between the winner of a wild-card game and the team with the best record in either league tend to have a pretty heavy favourite.
Not only does one team posses a significantly better record than the other, but the wild-card team has already used their best starting pitcher recently, making them vulnerable early in the series as they take to the road.
This year the Kansas City Royals have won nine more games than the Houston Astros and get to dodge ace, and likely Cy Young winner, Dallas Keuchel until the third game of the American League Division Series. That puts them in good position, but these two teams aren’t as far apart as their records indicate.
In fact, Houston actually has the better run differential of the two, and won the season series 4-2. It would not be a surprise to see this matchup go to five games.
Here’s what you need to know about the ALDS:
Thursday, Oct. 8 at Kansas City – 7:37 p.m. ET
Collin McHugh (19-7, 3.89) vs. Yordano Ventura (13-8, 4.08)
Friday, Oct. 9 at Kansas City – 3:45 p.m. ET
Scott Kazmir (7-11, 3.10) vs. Johnny Cueto (11-13, 3.44)
Sunday, Oct. 11 at Houston – 4:10 p.m. ET
Edinson Volquez (13-9, 3.55) vs. Dallas Keuchel (20-8, 2.48)
Monday, Oct. 12 at Houston – TBD*
TBD vs. TBD
Wednesday Oct 14th at Kansas City, Oct. 1 – TBD*
TBD vs. TBD
*If necessary
It will be a battle of stylistic differences on offence: During the regular season the Astros’ run total (729) was almost identical to the Royals (724), but the way the two teams scored was very different. The Astros ranked second in the majors in home runs, while the Royals ranked 24th. No team in baseball struck out less than Kansas City and Houston had a strikeout percentage of 22.9%, the second worst number in baseball.
Expect the Royals to get their runs by putting the ball in play and stringing together hits while the Astros do it by depositing the ball over the fence. Also, expect a misguided debate on which is the better way to construct an offence even though a 162-game season just proved that they’re equally effective.
The running game has a major role to play: The Astros and Royals ranked first and second in the American League in stolen bases this year, and if runs prove to be hard to come by each team will look to take extra bases wherever they can.
Both primary backstops, Jason Castro of the Astros and Salvador Perez of the Royals, were fairly effective theft deterrents this season throwing out 36 per cent and 32 per cent of base runners respectively. Even with some capable arms behind the dish, the green light will be on more often that not.
The Astros can cancel out the Royals’ best quality: Not many teams can say this, but the Royals’ greatest strength might be their outfield defence. According to both UZR and Defensive Runs Saved, their group was more than 30 runs above average over the course of the season. Their ability to track down balls and prevent singles and extra-base hits from falling in is crucial to the Royals’ run prevention, especially seeing as their pitching staff is not a special group.
Lorenzo Cain and Alex Gordon in particular are absolutely stellar with the glove, and balls hit to the left-centre field power alley are gobbled up at an incredible rate. However, the Astros’ reliance on the home run could be a benefit in this matchup. Even the best outfielders in the game can’t catch balls that are 10 rows into the stands.
Yordano Ventura has been the ace Johnny Cueto was supposed to be: It’s no secret that Cueto has struggled since donning a Royals uniform, but his issues have been mitigated by the rise of Ventura.
The hard-throwing right-hander struggled mightily earlier in the season and even earned a demotion to triple-A, but he seems to have turned the corner of late. Since the all-star break he has gone 9-2 with a 3.56 ERA and 3.27 FIP while striking out more than a batter per inning.
Cueto could easily find himself and be the top-flight starter the Royals were imagining when they got him at the deadline, but even if he doesn’t Ventura has shown the ability to fill that void.
Home-field advantage could be more important than usual: Normally it can seem like lazy analysis to put too much stock in home-field advantage, but in this series it could be particularly important.
The Royals’ style of play fits perfectly in their pitcher-friendly stadium, with a huge outfield that only they have the athletes to cover. This season their 51-30 home record ranked sixth in baseball. Perhaps as importantly, the Astros have not travelled well, posting a 33-48 record on the road.
Kansas City has a chance to get Houston down early in this series when it takes on a team that hasn’t played well on the road and won’t be able to use its ace until Game 3.
