The last time the Chicago Cubs played the St. Louis Cardinals in a series, Joe Maddon issued a warning worthy of a great mafia film.
“We don’t start stuff, but we finish stuff,” said the Cubs manager on Sept. 18 after a tense game that saw his star first baseman Anthony Rizzo hit by a pitch that Maddon believed was intentional.
It was clear then that the National League Central rivals didn’t like each other. And now, much to the joy of the baseball world, the clubs will meet in the post-season for the very first time.
In many ways this series could have the feel of a heavyweight bout. The Cardinals, who won the Central division title, were the only team in baseball with 100 wins. The Cubs finished with 97 wins – good for No. 3 in MLB.
Here’s what to look for in the NLDS:
Friday, Oct. 9 – 6:30 p.m. ET
Jon Lester (11-12, 3.34) vs. John Lackey (13-10, 2.77)
Saturday, Oct. 10 – 5:30 p.m. ET
Kyle Hendricks (8-7, 3.95) vs. Jaime Garcia (10-6, 2.43)
Monday, Oct. 12 – TBD
Michael Wacha (17-7, 3.38) vs. Jake Arrieta (22-6, 1.77)
Tuesday, Oct. 13 – 4:30 p.m. ET*
Lance Lynn (12-11, 3.03) vs. Jason Hammel (10-7, 3.74)
Thursday, Oct. 15 – 4:30 p.m. ET*
TBD vs. TBD
*If necessary
Season series:
Cardinals 11, Cubs 8
Classic case of youth vs. experience: The Cardinals are the gold standard in baseball: Post-season regulars with a rich history as a winning franchise. The Cubs on the other hand are the new kids on the block, a young team making their first playoff appearance since 2008 and one that had three rookies in the starting lineup for Wednesday’s wild-card game.
To put this in hockey terms, one is Sidney Crosby, the other is Connor McDavid. Thus, this series will be a good litmus test to measure the importance of playoff experience.
Joe Maddon factors into this; whether it’s through a pajama party or turning Wrigley Field into a petting zoo, the Cubs manager kept his players loose while they navigated a pressure-packed September.
Maddon’s seen it all before. Recall back to 2008, when he guided a young, inexperienced Tampa Bay Rays squad to the playoffs for the first time in franchise history, before ultimately losing in the World Series. His knack for squeezing the most out of young players can’t be discounted.
Dodging the ace: Cubs right-hander Jake Arrieta is no doubt the best pitcher in this series, but there’s a chance the Cardinals only face him once. The Cy Young contender carved the Pirates up during his complete-game shutout in the wild-card affair and will go on regular rest in Monday’s Game 3.
This places a heavy onus on Cubs left-hander Jon Lester, who the team signed in the off-season to a $155-million deal. A proven playoff performer, Lester gets the assignment in Game 1 and likely in Game 5. Despite owning a 1-3 record in five games against the Cardinals this season, he fashioned a 2.59 ERA across 31.1 innings while limiting hitters to a .216 average.
Molina factor: A vital key to this series for the Cardinals will be the health of catcher Yadier Molina. A torn ligament in his left thumb forced the seven-time Gold Glover to miss the final 13 games of the regular season. He’s been fitted with a splint for the injury to his catching hand and the hope is that it helps him hit and field his position despite not being fully healed.
Make no mistake – the health of Molina, whose 86 career playoff games rank 10th all-time, is of paramount importance to St. Louis. He’s the shepherd of a pitching staff that yielded the fewest runs in the majors this season, a feat made even more impressive by the fact that it was without ace Adam Wainwright for most of the campaign. (Wainwright is back from his Achilles injury and will pitch out of the bullpen in the NLDS.)
Here’s something to keep in mind: With Molina behind the plate, Cardinals pitchers posted a 2.80 ERA, which is the best in MLB among qualified catchers. That number rose to 3.51 with backup Tony Cruz receiving.
Factor in Molina’s presence with the bat (he holds a .290 batting average across 19 career post-season series) and it becomes even more clear why he registers as a difference-maker for the Cardinals.
Schwarber’s coming out party: NL Rookie of the Year front-runner Kris Bryant gets the lion’s share of attention among the Cubs’ first-year players, but it was outfielder Kyle Schwarber who stole the spotlight in grand fashion during the wild-card game with his monstrous home run that left PNC Park.
Built like a linebacker and carrying a high draft pedigree – he was taken No. 4 overall in last year’s draft – Schwarber has the makings of a playoff hero, especially considering who he’ll be facing this series.
The Cardinals are slated to send three right-handers to the mound in the first four games, which could be excellent news for Schwarber, who was called up in June by the Cubs. The 22-year-old is hitting .278/.396/.557 with 14 home runs against righties this season, compared to .143/.213/.268 with two homers against left-handers.
Cardinals offence: The St. Louis offence is not spectacular, ranking 24th in baseball with 647 runs scored. With the club’s excellent pitching, though, it didn’t matter much. But things are different in the playoffs and a big question will be if the Cardinals offence can produce enough.
Matt Carpenter turned himself into a premier slugger this season, setting new career highs in home runs (28), doubles (44) and RBIs (84), but several questions remain. There’s the aforementioned health issues of Molina, plus the state of veteran Matt Holliday, who hit just .182 (4-for-22) in his September return from a quad injury that sidelined him for 41 games.
