LAKE BUENA VISTA, Fla. – The GM Meetings concluded without so much as a minor trade or middle reliever signing Wednesday, prompting questions about why the off-season has started so slowly.
A few credible theories circulated the lobby of the Waldorf Astoria as the meetings wrapped up. Combined, they go a long way toward explaining the relatively slow start to the winter.
A handful of typically active teams, the Yankees, Red Sox, Nationals, Mets, Phillies, Tigers and Braves among them, made major personnel changes that demanded considerable attention early in the off-season.
Then you’ve got Scott Boras representing many of the market’s top players including J.D. Martinez, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Greg Holland and Jake Arrieta. While some agents prefer to strike quickly, Boras doesn’t mind letting his clients linger on the free agent market until the new year.
In a 45-minute session with the media Wednesday, Boras made the case that teams should spend to improve their clubs, even if it means exceeding baseball’s competitive balance tax. The ongoing owners’ meetings provide Boras with the perfect setting and audience for his pitch, yet convincing clubs to spend takes time. As for the clubs that cut payroll?
“They’re not living in the gated community of Playoffville,” Boras said.
One such team, the Miami Marlins, has contributed to the slow pace of the off-season in its own way. The Marlins are open to trading Giancarlo Stanton, but based on what team CEO Derek Jeter said, they’re in no rush to do so.
“It’s easy to point the finger at (Stanton), because he makes the most money, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that that’s the move that’s going to be made,” Jeter said.
Stanton has 10 years and $295 million remaining on his contract — a reasonable estimate for what he could earn as a free agent. If the Marlins want prospects in addition to salary relief, rival teams could balk. Complicating trade talks, Stanton can block any trade.
But as long as Stanton’s available, the market for top sluggers such as Martinez and Hosmer will be impacted, too. If and when he moves, clubs like the Red Sox and Giants will have more clarity.
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Similarly, the uncertainty around Shohei Ohtani affects the pace of the off-season. To some extent, teams are devoting time to a player who won’t technically be available until MLB, the MLBPA and NPB agree on a new player movement system (that could occur by early December, according to MLB chief legal officer Dan Halem). In the meantime, clubs are operating without key information about the best player available.
But even considering all those factors — the personnel changes, the Boras factor, the uncertainty around Stanton and Ohtani — there’s still no satisfying reason that there wasn’t a minor move made.
Unless, as a couple player agents suggested, no team wants to be first in a deep reliever market. Bargains are hard to find this time of year because asking prices remain high. If you’re a GM who spends lavishly on a reliever when everything else remains quiet, you expose yourself to criticism.
At a certain point, though, teams must address their needs. Chances are they’ll make up for lost time in the three weeks leading up to the Winter Meetings.
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