Why Blue Jays went all-in on Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Check out this amazing footage of 15-year old Vladimir Guerrero Jr. mashing home runs in the Dominican Republic, and that's right he's been linked to the Blue Jays. (Courtesy: Matthew Marotta, @mhallbaseball).

TORONTO – Settling on Vladimir Guerrero Jr., as their top target in the new international free agent period was the easy part for the Toronto Blue Jays, who underwent a complex series of machinations in landing the 16-year-old Dominican slugger.

In handing the son of former Montreal Expos superstar Vladimir Guerrero a signing bonus of $3.9 million, one of the largest in franchise history, the Blue Jays blew past their allotted spending pool total of $2,324,100, setting themselves up for a couple of different overage penalties, one of which was a tax of nearly $1.6 million.

A simultaneous trade with the Los Angeles Dodgers, in which the Blue Jays traded prospects Chase Dejong and Tim Locastro for three spending slots totalling $1,071,300, cut the penalty by the same dollar amount.

It also reduced the overage total under 15 percent (down to 14.86), meaning the secondary penalty was reduced from being unable to sign players for more than $300,000 in the next two international signing periods down to just the next signing period.

Considering that they can now reallocate the more than $1 million in savings elsewhere, perhaps even to the big-league team, while at the same time adding an elite power-hitting prospect to a system in dire need of one and only having to essentially sit out one signing period, you have a pretty tidy piece of business.

“That question, obviously, was the main debate,” Ismael Cruz, the Blue Jays’ international scouting director, said of the decision to exceed the club’s bonus pool. “We spent some time debating if we were (willing) to get one guy and sit out X amount of years. Those guys don’t come across very often, so it was either play all your marbles on one guy or go out and get a couple of players that are fine but for us, Vladdy Jr., is a difference-maker. He has the potential to be a very, very special kid.”

The biggest signing bonus handed out by the Blue Jays remains the $4 million they gave Adeiny Hechavarria, which was part of a $10-million, four-year major-league contract for the Cuban shortstop. Jeff Hoffman, the 2014 first-rounder, holds the club record for draft bonuses at $3,080,800 while prior to Guerrero, the $2.8 million Adonys Cardona received in 2010 was the biggest for a July 2 player.

Another factor is that after sacrificing their first-round pick in the signing of Russell Martin (though they did get the 29th pick used on righty Jon Harris as compensation for Melky Cabrera’s departure), the Blue Jays had a much smaller draft pool to work with.

Landing Guerrero was like acquiring a high pick, and the Blue Jays clearly felt he was the best offensive player in the international market. Given that they prioritize pitching in the draft and their top prospect base is pitching heavy, the timing was right in multiple ways to splurge on a bat.

“We decided to go after him because basically, in the international market, we haven’t seen a kid at that age with such hitting ability and power … for the three years we’ve been following him,” said Cruz.

Guerrero – who is represented by Beverly Hills Sports Council, the same agency as Aaron Loup and Liam Hendriks – is the first player the Blue Jays have blown through their international bonus pool to sign, and while they can still sign others, any contract over $10,000 will add to their overage penalties.

Speaking in general terms Wednesday, general manager Alex Anthopoulos explained that “for the right guy, absolutely,” paying penalties makes sense.

“These guys are so young, I don’t know who the best 16 year old is going to be (next year),” he adds. “We might have an idea but these guys change, it’s hard enough already to scout 18 year olds. If you have a player you really like and you’re trying to say, well, you forgo the opportunity to sign the best 16 year old two years from now or three years from now, well, you may not like that guy to begin with, and two, you may not even get him. We’re fine with taking the bird in the hand approach, but we better really feel good about the player if we were to do something like that.”

Clearly the Blue Jays feel that way about Guerrero, who is already working out at the club’s complex in the Dominican Republic and is expected to start his career as a right-fielder, just like his father.

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