Something about this doesn’t compute. The Yankees don’t get outbid for players, especially by a bad Mariners team saved from the American League West basement thanks only to the Houston Astros’ putridness. Superstar sluggers like Robinson Cano repped by flashy agents like Jay Z don’t leave the bright lights and continent-wide exposure of New York for the dreary rain and off-the-map solitude of Seattle.
Yet sometime early next week, once the all-star second baseman takes a physical, his $240-million, 10-year contract with the Mariners will be official, and the biggest surprise in one of the wildest weeks of baseball transactions in recent memory will be complete.
“Shocked,” was one executive’s reaction via text.
Stunners like this, however, can happen when a new agent out to earn a rep plays old-money hubris against new-money ambition, or desperation, depending on your view of the Mariners here.
Whether the Yankees grossly miscalculated the pace of negotiations or the seriousness with which Jay Z and CAA’s Brodie Van Wagenen would regard the Mariners’ interest—more than a handful of people believed the team was simply being used as leverage to bleed more money out of New York—is unclear.
What’s certain is that this agreement will have far-reaching repercussions at the winter meetings set to kick off Monday at Disney World’s Swan and Dolphin hotels—for the Yankees, Mariners, and baseball as a whole.
Let’s start with the Yankees. Between Derek Jeter’s age, Mark Teixeira’s wrist and Alex Rodriguez’s suspension appeal, their lineup was already full of holes. Now, despite the additions of Brian McCann and Jacoby Ellsbury, they are without their best offensive player in Cano, and therefore substantially weaker.
Given that, how could they let him get away?
Clearly one element at play is the Yankees’ history with Rodriguez and the $275-million, 10-year deal they gave him. Strictly from a baseball perspective, the way the third baseman has broken down physically in his 30s over the course of the contract underlines the risk inherent to such commitments. Another cautionary tale can be found in Albert Pujols, who’s produced a .823 OPS but played in just 253 games over two seasons since being lured to the Los Angeles Angels from the St. Louis Cardinals by a $240-million, 10-year deal. Good luck with the back end of that.
Cano, however, who’s 31, has proved to be more than durable, playing in at least 159 games every year since 2007 while making four consecutive trips to the all-star game. That the Yankees never offered more than $175 million over seven years, according to reports, to a homegrown star with the potential for a spot in Monument Park is stunning, regardless of their efforts to stay under the $189-million luxury tax threshold.
Of course, the calculus is quite different for the Mariners, and their investment in Cano extends beyond what he delivers on the baseball field.
In signing him to a mega-contract they are rebranding themselves in two ways: locally, as a team committed to winning, and nationally, as a destination of choice for star players. To that second point, the Cano signing can’t be all general manager Jack Zduriencik has up his sleeve, because beyond Kyle Seager at third base and perhaps top catching prospect Mike Zunino, there’s a whole lot of meh in the rest of Seattle’s lineup.
One thing they do have is starting pitching, with veterans Felix Hernandez and Hisashi Iwakuma fronting the rotation and the coveted up-and-coming trio of Taijuan Walker, Canadian James Paxton, and Danny Hultzen, who is recovering from shoulder surgery.
On top of that, the Mariners are expected to try and pry ace lefty David Price from the Tampa Bay Rays, an accomplishment which, while beefing up the lineup through trade or free agency, should allow them to make a legitimate run at both the division champion Oakland Athletics and wild card Texas Rangers.
None of that is on the table without Cano, which is why the $240 million coming his way can be viewed as the price of doing business at the big-boy table.
The concern for the rest of baseball is what his contract means for subsequent ones, and you can bet fellow free agent second baseman Omar Infante stands to benefit as a result. So too do Carlos Beltran, Nelson Cruz and Kendrys Morales, who are among the few impact hitters still on the open market.
As for the Blue Jays in all this? Cano’s people called last month to ask about potential interest, and were told there was no need to discuss the matter unless the all-star second baseman would accept a maximum of five years, as per team policy. The conversation ended soon after. Toronto’s policy makes plenty of sense, but it does keep them out of the game on the bigger names in play. Instead, the Blue Jays continue to try and upgrade through trade, using free agency to plug smaller holes.
Moves of those types abound right now, too, and even after this week’s frenzy of activity, plenty of intrigue remains for the winter meetings. Disney World positions its properties as places where dreams come true, and by the end of next week we’ll see how many players, GMs and agents agree with that.