Ben Nicholson-Smith did the heavy lifting on the draft last night while I was travelling back to Toronto from Detroit (thanks to Rob MacLeod of the Globe and Mail for the ride), but here are a few pertinent thoughts to kick around this morning.
Will first-rounders Jeff Hoffman and Max Pentecost sign with the Blue Jays? The answer here is almost assuredly yes, as both are college players and don’t have nearly as much leverage as a high school player in negotiations. If they want to play ball, they have nowhere else to go. That being said, someone close to Hoffman told me after he was picked that the power-armed right-hander was excited about joining the Blue Jays and looking forward to pitching in the AL East, and a good indicator of his mind-frame came during a conference call with media when he said, “I’m looking forward to getting something done and as soon as the Blue Jays are ready. Me and my family are going to sit down and we’re going to try and get something done as soon as possible.” Amateur scouting director Brian Parker also noted that “we’ve already done some background stuff with both,” and you’d figure that at nine and 11, the Blue Jays should have a pretty good idea of what it’s going to take with both players.
What went wrong with Tyler Beede in 2011 and Phil Bickford last year? Most of the concern about the Blue Jays’ ability to sign their picks is rooted in the negotiations with those two players. With Beede, the Blue Jays simply couldn’t buy him out of his commitment to Vanderbilt, initially offering $2 million and later $2.4 million, while he is thought to have sought $3 million. That happens and the compensatory pick they got turned into Marcus Stroman, so that didn’t work out too badly. With Bickford, there are strong indications something came up with his physical that prevented an agreement. Bickford turned into Pentecost, so that trade-off will be fun to watch.
Isn’t it risky picking a player coming off Tommy John surgery like Hoffman? A little bit, and that doubt is the only reason he slipped to nine. One source told me it’s “hard to get college arms with Hoffman’s stuff” and he has the potential to move through the system quickly once he’s back to health because of how advanced he is. Usually college pitchers of his calibre go right at the top of the draft, and trying to get such arms out of high school usually entails a long wait and more risk. Another thing to keep in mind is that like Hoffman, Drew Hutchison also had TJ at 21. That’s working out OK so far.
What are the signing bonus pool implications in play here? The Blue Jays have $3,080,800 in bonus pool space for the No. 9 selection and $2,888,300 for No. 11 and one school of thought is that they may be able to sign Hoffman for less than the ninth pick’s assigned value, and redirect the savings elsewhere in the draft. A candidate for that would be high-school righty Sean Reid-Foley, who was projected as a first-round pick but slipped all the way to the Blue Jays in the second round at No. 49. That spot has an assigned value of $1,128,800 and if that’s not enough to buy him out of a commitment to Florida State University, the Blue Jays might use some of their pool money from elsewhere to buy him out of school.
Were any Canadians drafted? Toronto-born outfielder Gareth Morgan went in the second competitive balance round, 74th overall to the Seattle Mariners. He’s a rare combination of power and athleticism but has a scholarship at North Carolina State.
The draft continues Friday and Saturday.
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No Eddie? No problem for the Blue Jays on Thursday, as they added Justin Verlander to their list of starters roughed up lately. They open a three-game series with the visiting St. Louis Cardinals tonight, with Marcus Stroman facing off against Lance Lynn. Mark Buehrle takes on Shelby Miller on Saturday and it’s Drew Hutchison versus Jamie Garcia on Sunday.
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Blue Jays bullpen coach Bob Stanley is very fond of the late Don Zimmer. The way Zimmer told Stanley he had made the Boston Red Sox in 1977 is pretty awesome.