TORONTO – The winter meetings open Monday in San Diego and while many big dominoes have already fallen so far this off-season, there are plenty of major moves still to come.
Before the action gets started, our Sportsnet panel looked at 10 storylines to watch as the baseball world gets set to hit the Manchester Grand Hyatt.
Winter Meetings roundtable on the Jeff Blair Show
Team To Watch
Jeff Blair: The Cincinnati Reds have Mat Latos, Johnny Cueto and Alfredo Simon entering their walk years, and rumours persist they might deal Jay Bruce or even Aroldis Chapman.
Ben Nicholson-Smith: By trading Josh Donaldson, the Oakland Athletics reminded us that they’re willing to deal anyone – even established stars – for the right price. GM Billy Beane will be worth watching with Jeff Samardzija and Brandon Moss sure to draw plenty of interest.
Shi Davidi: Has to be the New York Yankees. No way they sit out the off-season and bank on CC Sabathia and Masahiro Tanaka to stay healthy when Max Scherzer, Jon Lester and James Shields are all available.
Mike Wilner: How about the Chicago White Sox? They’ve already signed a slugging first baseman (Adam LaRoche) and a reliever (Zach Duke), they’re rumoured to be in on Jeff Samardzija and may even be courting Max Scherzer. After six seasons out of the playoffs, the Pale Hose are getting serious.
Mystery Team Poised To Steal The Show
Blair: The Chicago Cubs made a run at Russell Martin and Jon Lester and have the deepest farm system in baseball, especially when it comes to impact infielders.
Nicholson-Smith: I’m going with the Padres, and not just because the Winter Meetings are in San Diego. First-year GM A.J. Preller showed serious interest in top free agents Pablo Sandoval and Yasmany Tomas – an indication he’s able to spend for a big bat.
Davidi: The young and talented core of the Houston Astros is getting better and this might be the time for GM Jeff Lunhow to add an established piece like David Robertson or Andrew Miller to push the project forward.
Wilner: The Arizona Diamondbacks were baseball’s worst team in 2014, and with a new front office headed by Tony La Russa and Dave Stewart they’ve already been aggressive in dealing for Jeremy Hellickson and landing free agent Yasmany Tomas. They have dough and trading chips and want to get a lot better in a big hurry.
Team That Needs To Make A Move
Blair: For the second consecutive year the older, slower Philadelphia Phillies. Father Time hasn’t only caught up to these guys; he’s imprisoned them.
Nicholson-Smith: If the season began today, Shane Greene and David Phelps would project as the New York Yankees’ fourth and fifth starters. And once he addresses his rotation, GM Brian Cashman must also replace Derek Jeter and add late-inning relief.
Davidi: The Cincinnati Reds are stuck in a dangerous no-man’s land with several pivotal players entering their walk years, little money to spend and probably not enough talent to dethrone the St. Louis Cardinals in a competitive NL Central.
Wilner: The Baltimore Orioles might have run away with the AL East this past season, but this winter 40-homer man Nelson Cruz and O’s mainstay Nick Markakis have already run away from them. If they want to hold their perch, they’ve got to make something happen – Adam Jones can’t be the only straw stirring the crabcakes. Or something.
Key Domino That Needs To Fall
Blair: With Scott Boras content to slow-play the market for Max Scherzer, teams won’t really show their hands until Jon Lester is off the market.
Nicholson-Smith: Aside from Jon Lester, David Robertson is the main player holding up the market. Once he signs, the relief market will be established and teams that miss out on Robertson will move on to the remaining relievers.
Davidi: Max Scherzer and James Shields are waiting for Jon Lester to sign, and once he does, the frenzy for the other two aces and potential trade targets really opens up.
Wilner: I’m not sure I believe in the “they’re waiting for the market to determine itself” theory anymore, as we haven’t seen one big signing get a roll going in the recent past. In fact, I think some team may sneak in and grab James Shields before Jon Lester and Max Scherzer find a home, in an attempt to avoid a panic overpay.
Stock Rising
Blair: David Robertson will set a record for a closer in free agency – but is he serious about the Houston Astros, or just using them for leverage with the New York Yankees.
Nicholson-Smith: Is it a great time to be Andrew Miller or what? He was an afterthought three years ago and now he’s set to obtain a record deal for a non-closing reliever after a breakthrough season in the AL East.
Davidi: Luke Gregerson, with a 2.47 ERA in 283 games over the past four seasons, could see his market spike once David Robertson and Andrew Miller find new homes.
Wilner: Cole Hamels. When the Dodgers, Yankees and Red Sox are all sniffing around you, that’s about as good of a bidding war as you’re going to get. Unfortunately for Hamels, the price that’s rising will be paid to the Phillies in trade, not to him. Though he’s doing pretty well.
Stock Dropping
Blair: Anybody else beginning to think the only team Casey Janssen will ever close for is the Toronto Blue Jays?
Nicholson-Smith: The Rays always seem to remain competitive, but they lost their highly-regarded GM-manager combination this fall and their offence must improve in a big way next year.
Davidi: Given the number of catchers available via trade, it’s a bad time to be a mediocre free agent backstop. Dioner Navarro, Yasmani Grandal and Houston’s available catchers are far more appealing than anyone on the open market, which means the free agents may have to wait for that to settle before they find new homes.
Wilner: Carl Crawford. The speedy outfielder hit .300 this past season, but the Dodgers aren’t getting the bites they want on him as they try to clear both payroll and space in the outfield for young Joc Pederson. Who imagined Crawford would be the most difficult to move between him, Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier?
Market Movers (player)
Blair: Andrew Miller is about to re-define the value of a powerful bullpen arm with little experience as a closer.
Nicholson-Smith: He’s not a big name yet, but Yoan Moncada is most definitely a market mover. Teams are expected to bid tens of millions for the Cuban infield prospect even though it’ll mean accepting tens of millions more in penalties in a precedent-setting deal.
Davidi: Either Jed Lowrie or Asdrubal Cabrera is probably going to set the market for middle infielders, an area that’s been pretty stagnant so far. They’re the best of the bunch, while Chase Headley is head and shoulders the best free agent third baseman out there.
Wilner: David Robertson has been a major-league closer for one year and Andrew Miller has been a major-league closer never. Yet every relief pitcher on the market is keeping an eye on the both of them with great interest.
Power Brokers (agent or GM)
Blair: Josh Yates is advising Jon Lester; Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein has more resources than anyone else in the majors.
Nicholson-Smith: How long will Scott Boras wait the market out this time? He has the top pitcher available in Max Scherzer, but has seemed willing to remain on the sidelines so far.
Davidi: New Dodgers GM Farhan Zaidi has the money to get Jon Lester or David Robertson and assets to deal with his glut of outfielders. Led by president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman, the defending NL West champions should have a major say in where things go from here.
Wilner: Brian Cashman has the Yankees’ massive brand and huge money behind him, and even though he hasn’t done a thing yet this off-season, many in the industry are simply taking for granted that he’s going to bring a few more big names to The Bronx this winter.
Top Trade Candidates
Blair: Jay Bruce, OF, Reds; Dioner Navarro, C, Blue Jays; Starlin Castro, SS, Cubs; Jeff Samardzija, P, Athletics; Matt Kemp, OF, Dodgers.
Nicholson-Smith: Not only is Cole Hamels the Phillies’ best trade candidate, he might be the most intriguing trade chip in the game. Philadelphia could also deal Marlon Byrd and listen on their relievers.
Davidi: Outfielder Yoenis Cespedes seems like an odd fit in Boston and the Red Sox need starting pitching, so moving him to a team like the Reds, perhaps for Mat Latos, would address issues for both clubs.
Wilner: It’s pretty much a foregone conclusion that catchers Yasmani Grandal (SD) and Dioner Navarro (TOR) will be traded, and likely soon. Matt Kemp seems the likeliest of the Dodgers’ outfielders to go, and I hope Jeff Samardzija didn’t make a down payment on a house in the Bay Area.
Teams With Surplus To Trade
Blair: Phillies (old, broken-down players and Cole Hamels); Dodgers (outfielders); Cubs (prospects, especially infielders.)
Nicholson-Smith: The Red Sox (outfield), Rockies (outfield), Rays (outfield), Royals (bullpen), Angels (infield), Nationals (rotation), Reds (rotation), Mets (rotation), Phillies (bullpen), Cubs (middle infield), Dodgers (outfield) and Padres (pitching) stand out as teams with enviable depth.
Davidi: The glut of middle infielders the Cubs already have with top prospect Kris Bryant coming hard suggests the time is ripe for them to move someone like Starlin Castro. They could also go lower end and trade someone like Luis Valbuena.
Wilner: The Red Sox have two full starting outfields from which to deal, the Cubs have an overwhelming amount of young talent, some of whom will never approach their potential and are great sell-high candidates and the Athletics seem to have at least one arbitration-eligible left-handed platoon power bat too many for Billy Beane’s liking.
