Although they did it by the thinnest of possible margins, the Toronto Blue Jays landed themselves in a wild-card matchup with the Baltimore Orioles on Tuesday.
The format of a one-game play-in holds a great deal of potential for euphoria or heartbreak and should serve Blue Jays fans a steady diet of heavy tension sure to do their cardiovascular systems no favours. It also allows for tactical scenarios that are utterly unique.
There is no other situation in baseball where a team can set an entire 25-man roster for a single game and play like there’s no tomorrow. Even with a World Series Game 7, a club is forced to work with the group they decided on at the beginning of the series.
Because the format is so new — only eight wild-card games have been played — it’s unclear whether teams have yet found the best way to tackle its challenges. That said, the examples we have seen so far provide the foundation for a working guide to wild-card tactics.
Below is a list of do’s and don’ts based on past wild-card contests:
DO stick with your best players no matter what
This seems intuitive to the point of being reductive, but it’s an important point. The hot hand can be very seductive in do-or-die scenarios. We tend to think of how good a player is “right now” and act accordingly and it’s hard for managers to stray from anything that has worked recently, even if the logic behind it isn’t sound.
In wild-card history, there have been two multi-home run games. One was by Russell Martin in 2013, the other belonged to Brandon Moss. Martin had been hitting .127/.214/.222 in September before he helped drive the Pittsburgh Pirates to the NLDS. Moss was even worse with a .075/.148/.150 line in September prior to his heroics.
A player’s track record and skill set will always mean more than what they’ve done in the last few weeks. The Blue Jays would be wise to remember that if they consider giving career .255/.314/.351 hitter Ezequiel Carrera more at-bats than anyone else in their lineup on Tuesday.
DON’T load up on pitchers
According to Ben Nicholson-Smith’s piece on wild-card rosters from last Monday, the average team brings 9.6 pitchers to a wild-card game. Managers want to err on the side of caution and the idea of running out of arms in a must-win situation is certainly unpalatable.
Even so, the record for pitchers used in a play-in game is seven by the Kansas City Royals in 2014. That game went 12 innings and their starter only went five, almost a worst-case scenario. The average number of pitchers used stands at 4.56. By and large, teams use a starter and three to four of their most trusted relievers.
If you bring two or three starters, your four best bullpen guys and maybe an emergency long-man type like Scott Feldman if things get out of hand, you’ll be more than covered and have a lot more flexibility with pinch hitters, pinch runners and defensive replacements.
DO bring at least one dedicated pinch runner
Jarrod Dyson‘s steal of third helped launch the Royals all the way to a World Series in 2014, and made it apparent how useful a man who can swipe bases at will is in a must-win game.
While Dyson brought the value of the pinch runner into focus, it has always been a significant part of wild-card tactics. In eight contests there have been nine pinch runners used, and six of them came in to score.
During the Blue Jays 2015 playoff run, Dalton Pompey thrived in this role and the team has a lot of plodders he could conceivably replace in a critical late-inning situation.
DON’T leave starters in for the third time through the order
The third-time-through-the-order penalty is robust and well-documented, but sometimes it seems like managers don’t take it seriously. When their starter is rolling they are reticent to pick up the phone, even if the evidence suggests hitters can be fooled once or twice, but rarely three times.
In 2015, batters hit .247/.312/.398 the first time they faced a pitcher and .270/.330/.440 the third time. For Blue Jays starters this year the third go-around has been particularly rough.
| Pitcher | ERA 3rd Time Through the Order | Full-season ERA | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Sanchez | 4.37 | 3.00 | +1.37 |
| Marcus Stroman | 6.79 | 4.37 | +2.40 |
| J.A Happ | 4.38 | 3.18 | +1.20 |
| Marco Estrada | 4.34 | 3.48 | +0.85 |
| Francisco Liriano | 8.44 | 4.69 | +3.75 |
The worst thing a manager can do in a wild-card game is leave his starter in too long. Oakland Athletics skipper Bob Melvin certainly lost himself one that way with Jon Lester in 2014.
DO use starting pitchers in relief if need be
Starters have pitched in relief in the wild card six times in its brief history and five of those outings have been scoreless.
There is understandable concern about asking players to go outside their comfort zone in critical situations, but the reason starters are asked to pitch so many innings is because they are the best pitchers. Most relievers are failed starters and almost all starters would be great in the bullpen if their talents weren’t needed elsewhere.
Despite a couple of shaky relief outings earlier this year, Francisco Liriano could be an asset out of the bullpen for the Blue Jays, even if he’s just used to get one tough lefty. Liriano has held left-handers to a .219/.296/.302 line in his career and is capable of perpetrating some serious left-on-left crime with his world-class slider.
With Brett Cecil potentially moving into a more traditional set-up role, Liriano might be the team’s best LOOGY.
DON’T play for one run
Because the Blue Jays offence has appeared listless in recent weeks the idea of “making things happen” via small ball will certainly be alluring. We are also inclined to think of games with stakes this high as being close almost by definition.
The reality is that only one of the previous eight wild-card games was decided by one run. The average margin of victory is 3.86 runs and seven contests have been decided by three runs or more.
A big inning is far more likely than a manufactured run to grant the Blue Jays a win on Tuesday and they should not try to reinvent their identity in search of the latter.