Over and over Mark Shapiro tells Toronto Blue Jays fans to enjoy the 2016 season, to not fret about an uncertain future that in time will take care of itself. Windows of opportunity such as the one before the defending American League East champions are rare, and should be celebrated, he says. He’s absolutely right. Think back to the two decades of futility between the 1993 World Series title and the 2015 post-season run, and then look at the stacked team they’ll field this year. You’ve been waiting for this.
Yet that future, man, sits there in the distant horizon and it’s troubling. If it was just Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion headed to free agency next fall, it would be bad enough. But the contracts of R.A. Dickey, Brett Cecil, Drew Storen, Jesse Chavez, Justin Smoak, Michael Saunders and Gavin Floyd are also expiring. That’s a ton of talent to replace with $84.5 million already committed to only five players in 2017 and a farm system lacking on-the-cusp pieces to help fill the void. Factor in a thin free agent market next winter, and the Blue Jays will be facing some very, very tough calls.
If they headed into the year with the front office at a win-or-else crossroads (and former GM Alex Anthopoulos left anyway despite winning, adding “fit” to the club’s lexicon of vague but loaded terms), this year they go into the campaign with the roster moving toward an end-of-school juncture.
“How this team performs this year is going to dictate a lot of the tale for next year,” Shapiro says in an interview. “Provided we have the year we all think we’re capable of having, we’re going to have a lot of flexibility and a lot of options for maintaining a very competitive team for next year. What that looks like, whether it’s with different people or the same people, it’s easy to know who some of the key players will be. With some of the players there’s uncertainty which creates anxiety for everyone, fans and us in general. But we’re not going to close doors, and we’re going to have the resources for talking to almost anyone if this team is capable of accomplishing what we want to accomplish.”
The type of year the Blue Jays believe they are capable of is a World Series championship season, and in a refreshing change, that’s actually a legitimate goal. Critics like to argue that the Blue Jays were a .500 team before Anthopoulos brought in Troy Tulowitzki, David Price, Ben Revere, Mark Lowe and LaTroy Hawkins prior to the 2015 trade deadline, and that he gutted the farm system to make a run. But what he really did was repair the fundamental defensive and bullpen flaws that undermined a dominant club.
This year, the Blue Jays open the season with a far deeper rotation and bullpen than they did last year, and the defence with Tulowitzki captaining the infield is far improved. Given that leaky defence and relief work caused the 2015 club to squander 10-12 wins before the all-star break, they’re already better positioned out of the gate. Along the way, that team also developed a personality that’s picked up right where it left off last fall.
“The thing that stood out in seeing them play (this spring) is the edge that collective chip on their shoulder brings, that’s one thing that has been clear,” says Shapiro. “Watching from across the diamond was pretty scary, it was a pretty incredible and powerful thing to do. Edwin hasn’t taken an at-bat in a big-league game so we haven’t seen our full lineup in force, but when you think Justin Smoak is going to probably hit seventh for us, it’s a pretty dangerous and deep lineup.”
Once again, the pitching staff must ensure that baseball’s best offence is leveraged properly.
Marcus Stroman is being counted on to emerge as a front-of-the-rotation starter and has earned the trust of his teammates that he will do so. Dickey needs to once again be a 200-inning pillar of stability. Marco Estrada and J.A. Happ must simply pitch well enough to keep the team in games. Aaron Sanchez is an X-factor that can push the rotation from good to great, and perhaps alter the outlook for 2017 and beyond if he starts reaching his ceiling as a starter.
Waiting in the wings are Floyd and Chavez, who open the season in the bullpen, plus Drew Hutchison, who starts the season at triple-A Buffalo.
“I feel a little better about some of the depth than I did coming in here,” says Shapiro.
The same goes for a relief corps that features Cecil and Storen setting up for Roberto Osuna. At some point Sanchez will transition to the bullpen to manage his workload increase, and the sensible time for that is around the trade deadline, when another starter can be added to help in a playoff push.
“It’s got enough talent,” Shapiro replies when asked if the club’s prospect well is deep enough for another summer splurge. “It’s a good question, but it’s impossible to answer right now, there are too many variables that exist, but we still have the talent to do it. It’s going to be more difficult than it was before the prior group of players was traded. But windows of opportunity don’t come that frequently, you’ve got to cherish those when they come, and there’s going to be a right moment, a right time and a right price to pay if that opportunity exists.”
All of that, of course, is dependent on the season playing out as planned.
Blue Jays fans are well aware of how easily the best-laid plans can get blown up, and the alternative scenario is that the team is gutted of its pending free agents at the deadline to quickly restock the system with young players.
Given the quality of this team it’s highly unlikely, but it’s the smart play if things go south.
Far more likely is that the 2016 team plays out the season and looks to retool in the winter, a task that will be difficult given the issues with the farm system and the club’s traditional challenges in free agency.
The Blue Jays did re-sign Estrada and bring in Happ this past off-season, but plugging 10 potential holes is a whole other animal.
“There’s a reason why anyone but the largest market teams are normally players in free agency,” says Shapiro. “It’s a very risk-laden, volatile market. If you’re not very risk-tolerant, than wading into free agency is a dangerous place to be. Ideally you build a roster [that] doesn’t necessitate getting into free agency except to supplement or opportunistically – you go where there’s value.
“If we have to head into it differently at some state and time because of the status of a roster, and the team still has enough competitive resources to win, then we will. But that’s not the goal, you want to build an organization that doesn’t necessitate that.”
In their marketing, the Blue Jays are using the slogan “History Is Now” and the hashtag #OurMoment. Given what the big picture looks like, they’re not kidding.