Mock drafts have Jays taking high schoolers

Alex-Anthopoulos-Paul-Beeston

Alex Anthopoulos and Paul Beeston (AP).

The Toronto Blue Jays don’t know who they’re going to select with the 10th pick of the 2013 amateur draft Thursday evening, so it’s safe to assume that no one else does.

Even so, mock drafts — educated guesses from experts as to how the draft might unfold — can be an informative way of learning which players might be available at a given point. They aren’t foolproof, but they are useful.

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Here’s a look at which prospects the Blue Jays could take with the 10th pick based on the most recent published mock drafts of noted amateur baseball experts:

Jim Callis, Baseball America: Clint Frazier, high school outfielder

Frazier has the best bat speed in the draft, according to Callis and ESPN’s Keith Law. Though he may have to move to a corner outfield position in the future, he has impressive power and arm strength.

The Blue Jays hope to get Frazier or high school right-hander Kohl Stewart, according to Callis. High school outfielder Austin Meadows, high school left-hander/outfielder Trey Ball and high school shortstop J.P. Crawford also appear to be possibilities for the Blue Jays.

Keith Law, ESPN.com: Trey Ball, high school left-hander/outfielder

Law has only heard the Blue Jays in connection to Ball, Crawford, high school catcher Reese McGuire and high school right-hander Phil Bickford.

Ball has pitched and played in the outfield as a high school player. Though he’d be viewed as an early round selection as an outfielder, teams appear to believe he’s more promising as a pitcher.

Where the 2013 Blue Jays were drafted (source: Baseball-Reference.com):

Player Pick Year
Brad Lincoln 1st round (4th overall) 2006
Brandon Morrow 1st round (5th pick) 2006
Brett Lawrie 1st round (16th pick) 2008
R.A. Dickey 1st round (18th pick) 1996
Chad Jenkins 1st round (20th pick) 2009
J.P. Arencibia 1st round (21st pick) 2007
Colby Rasmus 1st round (28th pick) 2005
Brett Cecil 1st round (38th pick) 2007
Anthony Gose 2nd round 2008
Adam Lind 3rd round 2004
Casey Janssen 4th round 2004
Mark DeRosa 7th round 1996
Edwin Encarnacion 9th round 2000
Aaron Loup 9th round 2009
Thad Weber 16th round 2008
Jose Bautista 20th round 2000
Neil Wagner 21st round 2005
Steve Delabar 29th round 2003
Mark Buehrle 38th round 1998
Todd Redmond 39th round 2004

Jonathan Mayo, MLB.com: Austin Meadows, high school outfielder

The Blue Jays also have interest in Ball and McGuire, according to Mayo.

Meadows has a good chance of staying in centre field as a professional and has the potential to impact the game on offence and on defence. The toolsy high schooler has the “highest upside of any of the prep bats in this draft,” according to Law.

Kiley McDaniel, Scout.com: J.P. Crawford, high school shortstop

The Blue Jays are hoping for Frazier or McGuire, according to McDaniel.

Crawford, the nephew of Dodgers left fielder Carl Crawford, is the best shortstop prospect eligible for the draft, according to Callis. However, he could be four or five years away from reaching the MLB level in Law’s view.

Top Blue Jays first round picks by career wins above replacement (source: Baseball-Reference.com):

Year Selected Name WAR (Career)
1995 17th Roy Halladay 64.6
1991 16th Shawn Green 34.5
1993 15th Chris Carpenter 34.5
1997 5th Vernon Wells 30.1
1999 19th Alex Rios 27.8
1978 2nd Lloyd Moseby 27.6
1992 19th Shannon Stewart 24.7
2003 13th Aaron Hill 23.9
1990 22nd Steve Karsay 11.2
2005 6th Ricky Romero 9.8

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