The Los Angeles Lakers and the Orlando Magic tip off the NBA final Thursday night in what is expected to be a long series. The Magic may seem to be an unlikely Eastern Conference representative as they knocked off both the defending champion Boston Celtics and the team with the NBA's best regular season record, the Cleveland Cavaliers. But remember, Orlando finished the regular season a combined 6-3 against Boston (2-2), Cleveland (2-1) and Los Angeles, sweeping the Lakers as they won both meetings.
Many still see this as a march to the title by the Lakers, a team that is even more motivated by last year's title series loss to the Celtics. Orlando is a good road team having closed out Philadelphia and Boston away from home and wrestled home court from Cleveland in the first game and never giving it back, beating the Cavaliers in six games. But the 2-3-2 format in the final makes it extremely difficult for the team without home court to close it out on the road.
Consider these numbers before you put down a few shekels on the Orlando Magic to win the series. Since the 2-3-2 format came into play in 1985, the home team has swept the three middle games only three times, in fact you have a better chance sweeping on the road, accomplished by the visitors on five occasions, (two times each by Detroit and the Lakers) than you do at home.
The home team has won the title 75% of the time since the 2-3-2 format was instituted with the team playing the middle three at home going 34-34 since 1985, and that has only happened thanks to a 10-4 mark over the last five NBA finals. With that in mind, do you see Orlando winning three straight at home after getting a split in Los Angeles? It is possible, but not probable in these eyes. So in all probability for Orlando to win the series they would have to win twice in LA.
There are a number of wild cards that will be closely watched in the series. Orlando has proven to have the perfect inside outside attack and thus Phil Jackson and the Lakers will have to make some decisions about how to guard the Magic. If Andrew Bynum is in the game to guard Dwight Howard, then Pau Gasol may be forced to guard one of Rashard Lewis or Hedo Turkoglu, probably Lewis, out on the perimeter to try and keep the Orlando three-point shooting under raps. If Jackson decides to try and curtail the long range barrage right from the start, then it is expected that Bynum will go to the bench early if he does start and Gasol will have to wrestle inside with Howard while Lamar Odom is out on the perimeter. Trevor Ariza has played well and will have his hands full defensively with one of the Magic's three point dart throwers.
But Orlando has its own issues and they start with that Kobe Bryant dude wearing a Laker uniform. Michael Pietrus did a good job, as good as one can do, in guarding LeBron James in the conference finals but in this writer's opinion, when its money time, Kobe is still the tougher match up as he has more tools to go to work on you with than this season's MVP James. You can bet the Magic will throw different looks at Bryant and try to make him work at the defensive end to take some of the bounce out of his legs. The Magic must also be leery of the Los Angeles inside attack as the Lakers have great size on their front line. The interior passing when Odom, Gasol and Bynum decide to play above the heads of smaller defenders, making it look like they are playing against dwarfs can be devastating. When they don't default to the outside game, Los Angeles inside presence can be substantial. This factor could be one that Phil Jackson uses to keep Bynum on the floor and put Howard on the bench in foul trouble. That's right, go inside to Bynum, not as your primary means of attack, but do it often enough to keep pressure on Howard so that he doesn't get to rest on defence. Why not? It's the same tactic Orlando may will on Bryant. If Superman has to sit, then there is no inside-outside attack for the Magic.
The most intriguing decision will be Stan Van Gundy's choice of what to do with Jameer Nelson. There are rumblings that the all-star point guard will be ready to suit up in the series and does Van Gundy fix something that isn't really broke right now. It may be that Van Gundy uses Nelson as somewhat of an ace in the hole if things aren't going well he can put him in the game or use him for limited minutes.
Orlando has an advantage at the point but veteran Derek Fisher can make shots in the triple post offence as the Lakers move the ball well when it is employed. But it hasn't been all triangle all the time for the Lakers and when the screen roll game is used, other Lakers come into play with the likes of Shannon Brown, Jordan Farmar, and Sasha Vujacic contributing to the cause. Luke Walton has experience and it remains to be seen if Jackson trusts him enough defensively to put him on the floor to guard one of Orlando's outside threats.
So what does it all mean? With all the variables, it still comes down to the team that can play the best defence and force the opponent to modify its offensive approach. After much head scratching, I'll go with the Lakers in seven games and Kobe to win his first title as "the man". In the past if there was no Shaquille O'Neal it was no title for the Lakers but it may turn out to be different this year. Bryant is such a highly motivated individual and historian of the game that he knows in order to be considered one of the greats of all time he needs to stand on his own and win on his own. For a guy that always studied tapes of Michael Jordan and now has more and more Jordan mannerisms on the floor than any other player, he knows to be considered as one of the all time greats, its about the bottom line and that's winning rings.
