Paul Jones

Paul Jones is the voice of the Raptors on the FAN 590 and writes regularly for Sportsnet.ca.

The Spurs have done a good job of containing Dirk Nowitzki.

Just wondering if we could petition the NBA to make the San Antonio-Dallas series a best-of-nine or maybe even a best-of-11 because it has been the best tilt of the first round.

Right now, the Spurs have the Mavericks on the brink of elimination, leading 3-1 as they are suddenly looking like the team everybody thought San Antonio would be over the course of the regular season. Maybe they were just waiting for the post-season to show up to play with that sense of urgency and put it all together.

Is the result surprising? Yes and no. Yes because after an 82-game regular season, teams are (usually) what their record says they are but in this case, the Spurs are one of a handful of NBA teams that you reserve judgment on until at least Mother's Day.

San Antonio's defence was solid again on Sunday, holding Dallas to just under 42 per cent from the floor as the Spurs did a tremendous job of limiting Dirk Nowtizki. Even when Nowitizki had the ball in the pinch post (elbow area) or the mid-post area where he likes to operate from, the Spurs were able to double-team him to get the ball out of his hands or force him into tough shots. Most of the solid one-on-one defence came from veteran Antonio McDyess.

The Spurs may have found something with George Hill, who had a career playoff-high 29 points, in the starting line-up and veteran Tony Parker coming off the bench, for now. Parker provides a spark and if you're Gregg Popovich, don't change anything and ride it as long as you can. If you're Dallas bench boss Rick Carlisle, it's all about adjusting and doing it quickly.

True, the playoffs are about winning the best four-of-seven in the series but in truth, three is a very key number. Check out these stats and percentages for the first team to get to three wins in the series.

It's already been stated that when a team goes down 3-0, it's just a matter of lying in state in the arena -- be it at home or on the road -- until the eulogy is read and the epitaph is engraved. No team has ever come back from being down 3-0 to win a series and there has only been a seventh game three times in the previous 88 instances. But get down 3-1 and it's like Halley's Comet. A comeback happens only four per cent of the time and if you want raw numbers, that's eight out of 189 times all-time in the NBA.

It has happened four times since 1995, but it's not a regular occurrence so don't get your hopes up if you’re in Dallas, Denver, Miami or Chicago. If a series happens to be tied at two, you guessed it, the team that wins Game 5 goes on to win the series 83.4 per cent of the time. See why getting to three wins first means that there is a pretty good chance you will beat the opponent to four?

With all the emphasis on getting three wins before your opponent, how big does it make Game 5 between the upstart Oklahoma City Thunder and the Los Angeles Lakers on Tuesday? There are a bunch of stats that say the youngsters shouldn't be close to threatening the defending champs the way they are right now but this group is too "green" to be paying attention. The biggest thing they have going for them right now is a belief that they can win and their confidence is an issue for the Lakers. Never mind the youth, athleticism, shot-blocking, fast breaking and defence.

But the Lakers have been here before as recently as last season when they were pushed to Game 7 in the first round by the Houston Rockets before going on to win the NBA title. True, into every championship ring a little sweat must go, but there are some that have a host of reasons why the Thunder may be in the driver's seat. Do you agree?

The one thing that you can never quantify is how healthy a player is and with Kobe Bryant on the limp, the Lakers need him to get healthy so he can come to the rescue. All those blocked shots by Kevin Durant against Bryant in the final quarter of Game 3 might be an indication that Bryant doesn't have the explosiveness to get to the bucket in isolation scenarios. If he were capable, you know Bryant would get (ahem) a favourable whistle, but pulling up for midrange jump shots is uncharacteristic of Bryant.

Should be very interesting theatre for Tuesday night.