The eagerly-anticipated Celtics-Heat showdown is finally here.
The series many have been waiting for since last July when Chris Bosh decided to leave the Toronto Raptors and LeBron James announced "The Decision" is finally here. It's not the Conference final and it may have come earlier than some predicted but it's still time for the Boston Celtics and Miami Heat to do battle.
As always, for the most part you can throw the regular-season numbers out the window. The timing of the games in the regular season tends to take away some validity from the numbers. Remember, the first meeting was on opening night and the two teams played twice within the first 10 games of the season. As for the final meeting of the season, the Celtics were in a funk. So like I said, put much of what happened in those games in a bag and leave them at the side of the road.
However, there are some trends from the regular season that do need to be watched. Boston and Miami are solid defensively as they both finished in the top three in opponent's field goal percentage. The Heat have to be wary of the long ball as Ray Allen shot the ball well in the first round from behind the arc . The Celtics have done the same against the Heat in the four contests this season going 16/26 (57 percent).
Even more bad news for Miami comes from the fact that its primary decision-makers, Dwayne Wade and LeBron James, seem to have a more difficult time with the Celtics defense than others around the NBA. Knicks forward Carmelo Anthony utter those five words an offensive star hates to hear as he said the Celtics "load up on one side" which means ball movement is paramount.
Miami was 26th in the regular season in assists and had an even tougher time averaging fewer than its usual 20 assists per game against Boston. In four games against the Celtics, Wade averaged just a shade over five turnovers per game while James averaged exactly five per contest. Yes, I understand that the two of them are primary ballhandlers, and that comes with the territory, but those two players committed 65 percent of all Miami's turnovers against Boston. To make matters worse, much has been made of the Heat's inability to execute well with the game on the line as they are a collective 1 of 19 in the final 10 seconds of the fourth quarter or overtime when they trail by between one and three points.
But Boston has its demons as well.
Paul Pierce while doing a good job defensively against James, laboured offensively against the Heat. Boston needs to be better with the ball. Yes, the Celtics swept the New York Knicks, but they had their own issues turning the ball over. Oh, and the Celtics are comparable to the Heat as they are 2 of 14 in the final 10 seconds of the fourth quarter or overtime when trailing by one to three points.
Both teams need solid bench play. Boston's bench has been sub-par since the trade that sent Kendrick Perkins and Nate Robinson to Oklahoma City for Jeff Green and Nenad Kristic. With an emphasis on the perimeter play from Miami, Green will have to play well off the bench. The Celtics also need Jermaine O'Neal continue to step up as he did for stretches in the Knicks series.
Currently, Boston has an edge as they have played together longer and the core of a title team has experience in these situations as a unit. The Celtics may also have better role definition with its support players. A couple of injured could also return and have a major effect on the series as Shaquille O'Neal and Udonis Haslem are currently sitting out.
It's shaping up to be a great series. Expect some hard feelings to be shown and some good, old-time Eastern Conference basketball where every possession means something. Miami has home court but it's not like Boston isn't capable of winning in Miami and then holding the advantage.
So who do I like to win it? Let's give Boston a slight advantage.
