Playing from behind

Regardless of your sports persuasion, it's hard not to get caught up in the final moments of a close basketball game.

A buzzer-beater is universal, up there with huge hits, acrobatic catches and impossible dekes. People get them and they like them.

Conversely, a blowout, well, even hard-core hoops junkies can find it hard to watch a blowout. No drama, no tension. Just get it over with.

The NBA lockout is a blowout. The players are down 25 at the half, on the road on the second night of a back-to-back. Just get it over with -- no one wants to see good people humiliated.

Late Sunday afternoon, Victoria's own Steve Nash took to Twitter to rally the players’ cause as the NBA lockout reached a critical phase. His passion was admirable, and he may even have the moral high ground when he tweeted:

"Why are the owners unwilling to negotiate in good faith? As a player I apologize to the fans that we're in this position … but we will not be taken advantage of. In our hearts we're desperate to play, in our minds we know better and are prepared to #standunited."

Good effort, Steve.

A few hours later, NBA commissioner David Stern emerged from a seven-hour session with the NBA Players Association and made an announcement he probably had typed up about six months ago: The first two weeks of the NBA schedule - - Nov. 1-15th -- are cancelled.

If the NBA and its players can't reach an agreement on how to share the $3.82 billion in revenue generated by the league, more cancellations will follow:

"With every day that goes by, I think we need to look at further reductions in what's left of the season," Stern said to reporters in New York.

I'm not one for taking sides in these kinds of things. There is no great injustice that leaves me feeling the need to right wrongs. The owners presumably have a clue about how to run their business.

The players are by any standard well paid; are individually represented by agents they've hand-picked and collectively by what should be a negotiating team that befits a group that has claim to nearly $2 billion in guaranteed income annually.

Whatever can be hammered out between the two parties is fair, end of story and -- as one follower replied to Nash -- what's so bad about the owners wanting a 50-50 split of revenues with their partners?

As for who will get what, or who will win? It's the owner's game to lose and always is, given they have time on their side, the equivalent of Michael Jordan in his prime.

Larry Coon is a widely respected NBA salary cap expert and a few days ago he laid out in plain English why the NBA players will almost assuredly lose in this round of collective bargaining. The only question being by how much.

While there are a range of issues to be resolved, the main one is how to split league revenues -- basketball related income as it's called.

In the deal that just expired, the players got 57 per cent of BRI. They're seeking 53 per cent now. The owners, as mentioned, are offering a 50-50 split.

If the owners really want it, they'll get it. They just have to wait. As Coon pointed out, each week the players go without a deal costs them about $82.4 million in lost wages.

At last report, the gap between the two sides reflected a $120-million shortfall for 2011-12 and $796 million over the life of a six-year deal.

According to Coon, the players will reach the point of no return -- where they can't make up for lost wages even if they get what they're asking for -- by Dec. 16th. And given that Stern has been clear that the owners’ offers won't improve from this point forward, the real break-even point is probably sooner.

For the owners, digging in only makes sense. Whatever getting a good deal might cost them now is off-set by the reality that most of them will remain NBA owners for a long time, meaning they'll have a better chance to realize gains they make over the long term.

Also fans may be more tolerant of labour stoppages than they used to be. Hockey fans got over a lost season pretty quickly. It took the NBA and MLB a little longer to recover from their labour stoppages, but that was back in the 1990s -- a simpler time, apparently.

It's hard to imagine NBA fans giving up their hoops fix because the first six weeks of the season got cancelled. As for fringe fans? As if they'll notice.

Finally, a significantly better deal for the owners adds instantly to their franchise values. According to an industry rule-of-thumb, every $10 million saved in player wages annually delivers $100 million to the value of the business. The players don't get a cut from that and owners have the incentive to keep the wage bill as low as possible even if means cancelling games.

The current group of players are no doubt aware of the sacrifices their elders have made for them to create a league in which Gilbert Arenas is still owed $62.4 million for the next three seasons despite having one good leg and occasionally bringing guns to work.

But while you admire the passion, here's hoping Nash and his union brethren take the best deal they can get as soon as they can.

Coming back from double-digits late in the fourth quarter makes for great theatre. You never know which play will spark a rare run. You have to keep trying and the best players do just that.

But in labour negotiations -- at least this one -- sometimes you just have to look at the scoreboard, check the clock and do the math.

This one is a blowout; there will be no buzzer-beater.

Make a deal and play.

Michael Grange will provide insight and analysis on all the top stories in sports.