We are less than one week away from— not that anybody asked— my favourite event of the sports calendar: The NBA Draft.
The draft is live television at it’s best. Like when a habitual line-crosser hosts Saturday Night Live, it’s worth tuning in just to see what could happen next. We’re treated to genuine surprises, like this:
And the draft consistently offers a seemingly never-ending slew of unintentionally hilarious moments, like awkward high-fives, wardrobe malfunctions, hair vs. hat wars, and cringe-worthy reactions.
Oh, and it can absolutely shape and transform the future course of the NBA.
There is always uncertainty with the draft, and with increased reports surrounding the status of the consensus top two players— Markelle Fultz and Lonzo Ball— this year is proving to be no exception.
Here, in no particular order, are some of the most burning questions ahead of the June 22 draft:
Is Lonzo Ball to the Lakers a lock?
Short answer: Nope.
Long answer: Let me preface this by saying that Ball has become wildly underrated throughout the pre-draft process. The presence of his overbearing father and a series of potential smokescreens regarding his conditioning and other perceived issues have seemingly left many questioning his worth as an elite prospect. Which, for the record, he very much is.
Ball was dominant in his lone collegiate season, leading the NCAA in assists while scoring nearly 15 points per game and leading UCLA to a 31-5 record with a similar Ball-less roster that was under .500 the previous season. There are fair questions about whether he can handle the physicality of the NBA, and his funky shooting form is, fairly, under scrutiny (it’s worth noting that Ball shot 55 per cent from the floor and 41.2 per cent from beyond the arc, better than any player projected in the top 5 save for Markelle Fultz, who shot a whopping 0.1 per cent higher). He has incredible court vision, slams home alley-oops with ease, and has three-point range that extends way, way beyond the arc. He’s an absolute blue-chip prospect.
But there are still enough legitimate reasons to believe that the Lakers may pass on Ball on draft night.
One of the most popular theories surrounds the March Madness matchup between Ball and Kentucky’s De’Aaron Fox, who is projected to be drafted in the top 5. Lakers president Magic Johnson was in attendance that night, in which Fox torched a seemingly disinterested Ball to the tune of 39 points— and got the win. Did that poor performance sully Ball in the eyes of Johnson and the Lakers’ brass? And did it vault Fox past Ball on their draft board?
Another factor is the Lakers current roster, which features another point guard, D’Angelo Russell, who they just drafted second overall last season. Can Ball and Russell co-exist in the Lakers backcourt? Or can the Lakers flip Russell for another asset? Those answers will help determine Ball’s potential future in L.A.
Lastly, a fresh report suggests the Boston Celtics are seriously considering drafting Kansas forward Josh Jackson first overall. It would be a shocker (it would also make sense— more on that in a bit), but that would leave Fultz, the consensus top prospect, available to the Lakers at No. 2, which could be too enticing an opportunity to pass up. Speaking of…
Is Markelle Fultz the real deal?
Short answer:. Yes.
Long answer: Fultz has been atop draft boards for most of the collegiate season, and solidly in first throughout the pre-draft process. And for good reason— it’s hard to pinpoint a weakness for the six-foot-four point guard, who projects to be a perfect fit in today’s NBA.
Fultz is an explosive athlete who can score in any number of ways and is a pick-and-roll maestro who can vacillate between facilitator and go-to scorer on any given possession. His size and speed allows him to get to and finish at the rim with the best of them, and he should be a lethal shooter from the mid-range and beyond the arc. The biggest knock has been his defence, but he has all the tools to develop into a high-end two-way player under the right coaching and seems willing to put the work in to improve. Fultz has “future all-star” written all over him, and his ceiling is even higher.
…But who is the best fit for the Celtics at no.1?
Short answer:. Josh Jackson.
Long answer: Here’s where things get interesting. Fultz is the best player available, and would look mighty fine in Celtics green, where his ability to play off the ball will give him a meaningful role from Day 1 while allowing him time to groom into his future spot as the natural heir to Isaiah Thomas’s role as starting point guard.
But adding Jackson to the Celts current nucleus makes a ton of sense. He’s reportedly been guaranteed a spot by one of the teams selecting in the top three, and while the consensus seems to be that that team is the Philadelphia 76ers, it’s not hard to imagine his impact in Boston.
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I know what you’re thinking: The Celtics just drafted a small forward, Jaylen Brown, third overall last year and he looks like he’ll be really good!
But the reason why Jackson would be a good fit in Beantown is because his best NBA position may be at the four, which is the Celts biggest area of weakness. At six-foot-eight and 205 pounds (and counting), Jackson is a big body who uses his size to his advantage and routinely showed his ability to destroy defenders at the basket last season at Kansas.
He is an explosive athlete and the definition of a two-way player, but his calling card will be defence (think: Andre Igoudala), where, in a league going smaller and smaller, he can absolutely guard opposing power forwards. Playing the four in Boston would also mean he wouldn’t have to rely as much on his jump shot, improving as it may be, which is nice.
Will the Raptors’ pick contribute next season?
Short answer: No.
Long answer: In one of the deepest drafts in years, there will still be plenty of talent on the board when the Raps select at No. 23. But don’t expect whomever Masai Ujiri & Co. draft to make an impact from Day 1. For starters, Dwane Casey is notoriously hesitant to award rookies with meaningful roles (that said, the increased usage of Jakob Poeltl down the stretch may have signalled a change. Pascal Siakam’s starting job at the beginning of the season, mind you, was out of need/desperation/lack of options). But this has more to do with the Raptors’ current roster makeup.
There isn’t a clear area of need where any of the prospects expected to be available can fill. Given the way the crop breaks down, it’s most likely that the team will draft a combo forward at 23, or a long-term project centre (the exception is Terrance Ferguson, a talented wing player who will likely need some time to develop in the D-League before stepping onto an NBA court).
Barring an unforeseen breakout performance in training camp, there are too many players— Poeltl and Siakam in the frontcourt, Delon Wright in the backcourt, perhaps even, dare I say, Bruno Caboclo at small forward — ahead of whomever is drafted 23rd. There will be an opportunity for the Raptors’ draft pick to see spot minutes off the bench, or a skill-specific role in certain situations, but time with the Raptors 905 is far more likely for now.
Will the Sacramento Kings screw this up?
Short answer: Of course!
Long answer: There are few teams more untrustworthy on draft night than Vivek Ranadive and Vlade Divac’s Kings. This year the team is well-positioned to make huge strides in their rebuilding effort, with two lottery picks (five and 10) and a talent-rich pool of players to choose from. But can we really have faith in the Kings’ ability to do the right thing at the draft?
Last year, promising forward Marquese Chriss inexplicably fell to them at No. 8. So they selected him, and then promptly traded him to Phoenix. 2015’s sixth overall pick Willie Cauley-Stein is looking like a good pick, but in the four years prior they spent lottery picks on Nik Stauskas (8th), Ben McLemore (7th), Thomas Robinson (5th), and Bismack Biyombo (7th) who they also traded away on draft night.
There are already rumours that the team is looking to package their picks and trade up to select point guard De’Aaron Fox, which would be so Kingsian given that there’s an overwhelmingly high chance that Fox will fall into their laps at fifth overall anyways. The Kings have options, and it will be hard to screw it up. That’s what’ll make it all the more impressive when they do.
Who is the player we’ll look back on and say “how did he drop that low???”
Short answer: Frank Ntilikina.
Long answer: First off, it was incredibly tempting to say Indiana’s OG Anunoby, who has already received comparisons to Kawhi Leonard for his defensive excellence and raw offensive game— the same things Leonard brought to the Spurs as a rookie. Call it a gut instinct, but I think the player being undervalued right now is France’s Frank Ntilikina.
The six-foot-five point guard projects to be a terror on defence, where his incredible instincts and Stretch Armstrong arms allow him to pick the pockets of opponents regularly. His footwork and tenacity keep him in front of his man and forces them into tough shots or turnovers. What’s more, he has the potential to be an impact player on the other end of the floor as well, where his passing and elite ability to run the floor will translate to the next level. His jump shot is improving, too, and he impressed running the point in the French league playoffs.
The MVP of FIBA’s U-18 tournament has all the tools. He’ll also likely be the fifth point guard selected, after Fultz, Ball, Fox, and Dennis Smith Jr.
