The first quarter of the Toronto Raptors season has gone about as perfectly as could be expected.
They are on pace for 55 wins, so within a rounding error of the 56 they won a year ago when they set a franchise record. They are second place in the East and just a game-and-a-half out of first even though they have lost all three times they’ve played against the first-place Cleveland Cavaliers — the season’s primary blemish.
Despite fears about the conference improving as a whole, no big, scary monsters have emerged yet. If anything the Raptors have consolidated their status as the East’s second-best team and could make a strong case that other than Cleveland, Golden State and perhaps San Antonio — there are no teams better in either conference.
Barring injury it looks like smooth sailing to home court advantage in the first two rounds of the playoffs where — like a year ago — the ultimate judgement on their quality will be made.
But that doesn’t mean there won’t be some interesting subplots to cause some waves in what are otherwise smooth waters.
On that, emerging already is the battle for minutes at centre where Jonas Valanciunas has slipped into a funk and Raptors head coach Dwane Casey hasn’t been shy about giving emerging backup Lucas ‘Bebe’ Nogueira every chance to pick up the slack.
Valanciunas hasn’t seen the floor in the fourth quarter in four games, or since he left a win against the Philadelphia 76ers in the late going after rolling his ankle. In his place has been Nogueira, who is suddenly looking like viable option in all kinds of situations.
For all his gifts — a seven-foot-six wingspan, buttery hands, quick feet and a nice overall feel for the game — Nogueira comes across as light-hearted to the point where the no-nonsense Casey could wonder about his focus and competitiveness.
But Nogueira has proven reliable when on the floor, which is all that matters.
“I’m really impressed with the way Lucas is coming [along],” said Casey on Wednesday as the Raptors practised in advance of Thursday night’s meeting with Andrew Wiggins and the Minnesota Timberwolves. “He’s a young kid …. but his time on the court is growing.”
Casey’s affection for the 23-year-old Brazilian is a fairly recent development. He’s played more minutes this season than he has in his first two combined. His injury history — he’s battled back and hamstring problems, often making him unavailable — and Casey’s lack of faith keeping him buried in the rotation when he was active.
Even this year Casey sounded like he was losing patience with Nogueira, who was acquired in a trade in the summer of 2014 that also brought Lou Williams from the Atlanta Hawks. Williams won the NBA’s Sixth Man award, but Raptors president Masai Ujiri always claimed Nogueira was the key to the deal. After Nogueira sprained his ankle in the last exhibition game this season, opening the door for rookie Jacob Poeltl, Casey said that Nogueira would have to fight his way back onto the court.
But then Valanciunas missed a couple of games with a bruised knee, Nogueira played well and he’s been part of the rotation ever since, giving the Raptors a dose of the defensive versatility they lost when Bismack Biyombo left as a free agent but with a much more polished offensive package.
But Casey’s decision to leave Valanciunas for long stretches — he’s averaging just 23.3 minutes a game over the past four outings compared with the 28.9 he averaged prior — raises other questions.
Since rolling his ankle — he left the game against Philadelphia, a blowout win, but didn’t miss any subsequent time — Valanciunas’s normally reliable offensive game has faltered, the contrast even more glaring give that Nogueira has surged on a steady diet of rolls to the rim and put-backs.
Valanciunas is shooting just 31.8 per cent from the floor in his last four outings (compared to 55 per cent for his career) while averaging 4.5 points and 6.5 rebounds. In contrast Nogueira has been near perfect, finishing 14 of his last 15 shots — a cool 93.3 per cent from the floor — while chipping in 8.5 points, four rebounds, two steals and 1.8 blocks in just 18.4 minutes a game.
“Right now [Valancuinas] in a slump, it’s [not] his fault he’s played some teams [with] matchups that are unbelievably tough for him,” said Casey, making reference to opponents like Memphis’s Marc Gasol and Cleveland’s Channing Frye — big men who are each comfortable stepping out to the three-point line. But mixed in too were outings against the Atlanta Hawks’ Dwight Howard and the Los Angeles Lakers’ Timofey Mozgov, who should be right in Valanciunas’s wheelhouse.
“It’s not his fault. His instincts take him to the rim and in the new NBA you’ve got fives shooting threes now. That’s another area he’s going to need to learn to play if he’s going to stay on the floor is to guard perimeter fives. That’s tough for all the NBA, not just Jonas.”
There’s a chicken-and-egg element to the problem. Casey acknowledged that pulling the string on Valanciunas’s minutes could be a factor in his performance — he looked lost at times against Cleveland — but didn’t apologize for his tinkering.
“I think a lot of it … probably I’ll take the blame for it because of the matchup situations it doesn’t garner a lot of confidence and that probably has jerked him around a little bit,” said Casey. “… But at the same time we have to try to continue to win games, that’s our mission, our goal as he fights through it.”
The young T-Wolves might have the prototype for the centre of the future in second-year big man Karl Anthony Towns who can knock down threes and put the ball on the floor like a two-guard but has a rugged post game and long-armed defensive presence as well. It’s a lethal combination.
The question is who Casey trusts to counter it?
When teams go ‘small’ there is always the option of staying with Valanciunas and taking advantage of whatever matchup advantages emerge. But that generally means less touches for DeMar DeRozan or Toronto’s collection of on-fire three-point shooters. It also puts pressure on Valanciunas as a passer if and when double-teams do arrive — not one of his strengths.
With Nogueira the Raptors don’t lose rim protection but gain a threat in transition and a threat for lobs at the rim that force opposition defences to sag middle just enough that scrambling out to contest threes becomes a challenge. And defensively he’s shown signs of being able to flash out and guard smaller players on pick-and-rolls too.
So far this season Nogueira has a +29.8 net rating in the fourth quarter compared to Valanciunas’s +15.6 according to NBA.com. Overall Nogueira’s net rating is 24.4 compared to 5.2 for Valanciunas.
Doubtless Valanciunas will get is chance to earn his minutes back — prior to his four-game slump the big Lithuanian had his most productive seven-game stretch of the season — but Casey doesn’t seem like he minds the way Nogueira has emerged to challenge his starters.
I love it. I think it’s great … Competition, adversity — all of that — keeps you on your toes and makes you a better player I think,” he said. “Lucas playing well will help Jonas to take a deep breath and say ‘Hey look’ I’ve either got to pick it up or … it’s healthy as long as they handle it the right way, which our guys do, in a roundabout way it makes us a better team.”
And in a season of calm, a more interesting one.