There is little doubt the Miami Heat will climb back off the mat and strike back with a vengeance. The Heat are already Las Vegas favourites to repeat next year. Yet after being so thoroughly dismantled, the prevailing question is not if but how Miami can rally in the off-season, especially considering the Big 3 can all opt out of their existing contracts this summer—either to re-sign with the Heat or test the free-agent waters.
For LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh the difference between $21 million and $23 million may not be a big deal. Those three Heatles have made a total of $373 million in their combined 33 years in the league and—provided they don’t opt out—are set to make just over $20 million in 2014-15 with raises that will get them around $22 million the following year.
Something that might be a bigger deal, However, is the pay cut each would have to take for Miami to land Carmelo Anthony—a popular rumour at present. Settling for the $14-15 million it would take to fit Melo under the cap would not only see the Big Three earn considerably less money up front, it would also drop their yearly percentage increases.
Still, it’s not inconceivable and we will only have to wait until next week for hints on their plan of attack. June 23 is the date Carmelo Anthony reportedly has to tell the Knicks whether he is opting out. Pat Riley and his staff no doubt have contingency plans in place whether Anthony pledges his loyalty to Phil Jackson or not, and those plans will certainly affect Miami’s draft night plans. Not due to roster composition but financial flexibility. Miami can trade the 26th pick in the draft to save money, possibly for some package of second-round picks whose contracts won’t be fully guaranteed.
Chicago and Houston are viable options for Anthony should he opt out. However, it’s hard to fathom Carmelo leaving the Knicks and a potential $35 million for a situation that is far from a championship guarantee. If he jumps ship for Chicago, his fate is tied to Derrick Rose’s knees. Anthony also wasn’t fond of playing in the midst of Linsanity in New York. Will he be willing to play beside Lin and Harden, who need to dominate the ball to be successful in Houston? Both teams failed to get out of the first round this year. Would the addition of Anthony be enough of a factor to catapult them to the Finals?
Having said that, Anthony hasn’t made it out of the first round with the Knicks, either. Standard NBA rebuilds take three years. Even if Jackson and head coach Derek Fisher can flip the Knicks around in that time, Carmelo would be past his prime. The best before date and best chance of success are both pointing Anthony south, the same way they did for Lebron in 2010.
Adding Anthony makes basketball sense because Wade’s decline has so drastically impacted Miami’s secondary scoring. In 2006, a Jordan-like performance from Wade saw him average 34 in the Finals. In 2011, that average dropped to 26 but, at the time, that was chalked up to sharing the burden with LeBron. A year later, it was down to 22 points per, then 19 and, this year against the Spurs, Wade was only able to muster 15 points per game. More than 50 percent of Wade’s offensive production has dropped off since his first title run.
Yes, Scottie Pippen used to average less than 20 in the finals, but Pippen was a defensive stopper who took the opposition’s best perimeter scorer so Michael Jordan wouldn’t have to. The man once called “Flash” missed 13 of his 15 shots in the paint in Games 4 and 5 versus the Spurs and his defensive indifference was just as glaring as his offensive inefficiency.
Throughout the playoffs, LeBron was forced to guard everyone from small point guards like Tony Parker to physical power forwards like Indiana’s David West. Meanwhile, glue guys like Lance Stephenson and Danny Green had career series for their respective clubs with Wade logging minutes on them. In the deciding game of the Finals, Wade had 11 points and three rebounds. LeBron, on the other hand, put up 31 points and 10 boards despite getting benched once the game was out of hand.
None of which is to say that Wade isn’t capable of being an effective player, but should the Big 3 take less to stay in Miami, those pay cuts need to be proportionate to their level of play. Wade should give up more money than LeBron to make the next batch of title runs viable, because it’s his eroding game that has put them in jeopardy.
For his part, Bosh has already sacrificed on the court to make the pieces fit. He added a three-point shot to create space in the lane; he’s seen less offensive touches—particularly in the paint—so LeBron can be the playmaker via the pick-and-roll; and he’s accepted the challenge—and subsequent criticism—of guarding centres to allow the Heat to play small.
Bosh has made sacrifices in his game; Wade needs to make sacrifices in his wallet.
Only Norris Cole is guaranteed for next season, on the books at just over $2 million—a decent price for a serviceable back up. Udonis Haslem would have to opt out and re-sign for less money, something he may be reticent to do since he already left money on the table in 2010 when he could have decamped for the Utah Jazz. Chris Andersen would also have to opt out to create cap space—something he’s reportedly willing to do.
Ownership has a part to play as well. To save money, the front office didn’t use the mid-level exemption last off-season. They also cut James’s friend Mike Miller to save $15 million dollars in tax—Miller went on to play all 82 games and help the Grizzlies make the playoffs.
These players aren’t going to take less so owner Micky Arison can make more money in a capped league. LeBron and his wingmen can point to a sold out American Airlines Arena and an increased franchise value as well as a Nets organization that spent $189 million to build a team just good enough to lose to Miami in five. The least the Heat can do is pay the repeater tax to keep their stranglehold on the East intact.
The Heat need to structure their cap with actual production, not reputation, in mind. It may cause some hurt feelings but the alternative would provide a different view of their desire to win. We now know that “not one, not two, not three, not four not five, not six, not seven” won’t be the number of consecutive rings; it very well may be the cost—in millions—of a hometown discount.