Of the following two free-agent point guards, which one would you choose?
Point Guard A just came off a season with 17.9 points, 4.7 rebounds and 7.4 assists, and Sports Illustrated just rated him the 30th best player in the game.
Point Guard B registered 17.7 points, 4.7 rebounds and 5.5 assists. He ranked 33rd on SI‘s list.
On numbers alone you might be inclined to choose A. However when you factor in the fiscal ramifications, the decision becomes a no-brainer: Point Guard A signed a four-year, $48-million deal while Point Guard B will make $70 million over the next five.
Point Guard A is Kyle Lowry, who re-signed with the Toronto Raptors in July.
Point Guard B is Eric Bledsoe, who just last week re-signed with the Phoenix Suns.
When Lowry signed, Toronto basketball fans rejoiced and most industry watchers agreed the terms were fair. And while there were some at the time who worried a bit about the dollar figure, the ensuing Bledsoe deal makes Lowry’s contract looks like a steal.
Yes, Bledsoe is younger. And no, Lowry doesn’t have the upside Bledsoe has. But Bledsoe has never been the lead dog on his team. In Los Angeles he backed up Chris Paul; in Phoenix, it’s Goran Dragic’s team. Even in his college days at Kentucky, John Wall was the lead ballhandler and DeMarcus Cousins was the team’s crunch-time option.
So why did Phoenix management have to spend so much more than Masai Ujiri did? The collective bargaining agreement theoretically should have played in the team’s favour. The Suns had leverage as they were in position to match any last-minute offer Bledsoe got from another team. What’s more, they had strength in numbers at Bledsoe’s position. Not only do they have Dragic, but they signed another diminutive playmaker in Isaiah Thomas and and drafted Canadian point guard Tyler Ennis in the first round of the draft in June. When you consider Phoenix just signed Dragic’s brother, Zoran, they now have five young players to split the guard minutes.
According to multiple sources, Phoenix initially made a four-year, $48-million offer to Bledsoe. The deal was based off the deals Ujiri had constructed for not just Lowry but Ty Lawson before him in Denver. But despite the undeniable stats comps between the players, Bledsoe was reportedly looking for max money—or an annual salary averaging about $16 million over five years. He didn’t get it, but he got close.
Even if you consider Bledsoe’s youth (he’s four years younger than Lowry) and potential, those pros have to be weighed against the con of his lack of experience. Bledsoe has less than one full season as a starter under his belt. And the reason he didn’t finish last year as a starter is something that has dogged him over his short career—his health. There are injury concerns with Bledsoe as a torn meniscus cost him half the 2013–14 season. He has now had two knee surgeries in the last four years.
Lowry has fought the “injury plagued” label during his career as well, but he’s coming off a season in which he played big minutes for 79 games and performed at peak effectiveness in the playoffs.
In two or three years, the Lowry deal will look even better in retrospect. As the salary cap goes up in conjunction with the league’s new, richer TV contract on the horizon, $12 million for an all-star-calibre lead guard will seem like a smaller and smaller figure. Meanwhile, Phoenix has to navigate Dragic’s unrestricted free agency next year. As he’s been a better player for the team than Bledsoe, he is likely to opt out of the $7.5 million remaining on his contract and start negotiating a deal worth twice as much.
That conversation will dominate the Suns’ season, and has really already started—”#Dragic” was trending the day Bledsoe signed. The Raptors, on the other hand, also locked up Vasquez this off-season and now have backcourt continuity and solidarity moving forward.
Add it all up and once again Masai Ujiri has turned water into wine. The Raptors might not have everything come up roses this season like they did during their magical run in the spring and Lowry may have trouble reaching all of the career highs he posted, but judging by the market in which it was signed his contact can only be seen as a huge win for the team. You can make a valid argument either way regarding which free-agent point guard you’d rather have moving forward, but there is no argument regarding who you’d rather have at their current price.