Dwane Casey is well aware of what the Toronto Raptors are capable of—and well aware of what they aren’t.
The second-best team in the East boasts the conference’s best offence so far this season. The Raptors currently have the league’s second-highest offensive rating—a measurement of points scored per 100 possessions. The Raptors own a 113.9 figure while the Golden State Warriors sit in first in the category with 115.4.
Last season Toronto finished fifth overall in O-rating, at 107, right behind the championship-winning Cleveland Cavaliers.
But while the improvement has helped lead the Raptors to success so far this season, it doesn’t quite make up for the team’s difficulty at the other end. It’s not that the Raptors are bad defensively—but they’re just not quite good enough.
“I don’t know if we’re ever going to be a top-five defensive team,” says Casey, the Raptors’ head coach. “But we’ve got to get somewhere in the middle, [so] on the nights where the ball isn’t falling our defense can carry us.”
The Raptors were 11th in the NBA last season in overall defensive rating, at 102.7 (measured by points allowed per 100 possessions). So far this season they sit 16th, at 104.2.
Part of the problem for the Raptors has been a difficulty guarding opponents beyond the arc. On average, Toronto gives up 30 points off three-pointers per game on about 28 attempts—the seventh-highest number faced by any team in the league. That’s up by about five three-point attempts from last season.
But that might be, at least in part, by design. To create a more robust interior defence, Casey has tried to get his players to pack as close to the zone as possible.
“Our philosophy is we’re zoning up to protect the paint and then getting out,” says Casey. “So the three-point line is open. Now we have to do a better job of getting out there.”
It’s something the Raptors will need to focus on if they want to topple the reigning kings of the East in Cleveland. In last season’s seven-game Eastern Conference Final, the Cavaliers hit 68 threes. (The Raptors hit 44, shooting .289 from beyond the arc.)
When the teams met on Monday night, the Cavaliers hit 14 threes, en route to a 116–112 win. To the Raptors’ credit, they hit 13 in the loss. Overall they’ve increased their attempts and percentage this season, but the Raptors’ offence isn’t built on shooting threes.
If Toronto hopes to reach the Conference final again—let alone beat the Cavs and have a shot at the Warriors—they’ll need to find ways to defend in the paint while challenging outside attempts more effectively. Because middling D won’t cut it if the Raptors want to join the league’s elite.