The Raptors are coming off by far their best season in franchise history. They won more regular season games— 56— than ever before. They not only got out of the first round but also got to the Eastern conference finals for the first time in franchise history, stealing two games off of the eventual champion Cleveland Cavaliers. They flawlessly hosted NBA all-star weekend, and sent two players to the Olympics, who returned home with gold.
However, this summer the rest of the Eastern conference got noticeably better. Atlantic division rivals New York and Boston both made a splash in free agency. Indiana improved their roster across the board. Cleveland is, well, still Cleveland.
As a result most pundits cautiously believe that, sure, the Raptors will be once again good, but almost surely won’t be better. The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, for example, has the Raptors taking a step back at 49.5 wins and, is giving Toronto the sixth best odds of winning the NBA title.
Yet, look closer, and you’ll notice there are signs the Raptors, despite resisting making any massive additions, will be even better this season than last. Here’s why:
The return of DeMarre Carroll
Remember: Carroll only played 26 regular season games last season. For much of them he wasn’t totally right as he nursed various ailments and even left his inaugural game as a Raptor with an elbow injury (to eventually return). When healthy during the regular season Carroll contributed 11 points and chipped in 4.7 rebounds. Since DeMar DeRozan isn’t known for his defense or three point shot it is paramount to have a three-and-D guy beside him. When you add Carroll’s presence as a perimeter defender and a badly needed floor spacer, his return should help Toronto improve on both sides of the ball.
Ideal Schedule
The Raptors schedule was oddly slanted a year ago. It was extremely road-heavy to start the season and backlogged with home games. Needless to say, the schedule makers were much friendlier to Toronto this time around.
The Raptors have 17 sets of back-to-back games, which is right at the league average of 16.3. Their only real tough road trip is December 23rd to January 3rd when they embark on a 6 game road trip in three different time zones. That trip does avoid the dreaded Christmas Day game of which the franchise has only had one in 22 seasons.
More players equals more pace
Dwane Casey had a tight rotation last season, partially because of injury woes. Without Carroll and Jonas Valanciunas (who missed 22 games) for extended periods, preservation of bodies took precedence over pace of play. Toronto had the second slowest pace of play in the NBA last season.
This season the Raptors support players are younger and even more athletic. Second-year man Norman Powell will be a part of the rotation from the start this season. Plus some combination of the young bigs Pascal Siakam, Jakob Poeltl and Bebe Nogueira may not necessarily command significant minutes but will bring defensive intensity and energy off the bench. Now with the deeper depth and every bench contributor being an above-replacement defender the added defensive stops and turnovers created should allow Toronto to get out in transition more and easily increase their pace of play.
Better starts means fewer comebacks
A better starting lineup net rating with the addition of forward Jared Sullinger over the departed Luis Scola means the Raptors will no longer be looking up at the scoreboard coming from behind by the first TV timeout in the first quarter. Last season Toronto was the fifth worst team in the first six minutes of the first quarter. In contrast, they were the third-best team over last six minutes of first quarter and first six minutes of second quarter. The addition of Sullinger in the starting lineup and return to health of Carroll should help rectify their slow starts.
While the Lowry-plus-the-bench unit saved Toronto many times last year, it shouldn’t have to erase as many deficits this time around, instead tasked with padding leads instead.
Dwane Casey continues to get better
We often talk about player development but we seldom talking about internal improvement from a coach and his staff. You can’t ignore that Dwane Casey has continued to get better as a coach since coming to Toronto. Last season, he diversified his sets and expanded his philosophy offensively. Casey has had a better record each season, but more importantly the Raptors stars, DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry, have played their best career basketball under Casey and swear by him as their mentor. There are no signs to expect regression from Casey now that he has the security of a long-term contract.
More Powell and Less Ross
Norman Powell was featured in just 46 games last year as he was up and down from the big club and Raptors 905 all season. The biggest knock on him coming out of college was his long distance shooting, but that should no longer stop him from getting minutes— Powell shot 40.4% from three-point range last year. This offseason he’s worked on his shot making it quicker and more compact. By comparison Terrence Ross shot 38.6% from downtown. Don’t be surprised if Powell jumps Ross in the rotation, as Powell is a superior defender and passer. Either Ross will finally fulfill his potential or Powell will steal his minutes. Either scenario is a win for Toronto.