To trade or not to trade? That has been the biggest question facing the Toronto Raptors ahead of Thursday’s NBA Draft. And for good reason.
Owning two first-round picks — the ninth and 27th overall -— the Raptors are in a good position to add promising young talent to a roster that made it within two wins of the NBA Finals before bowing out to the eventual champion Cleveland Cavaliers.
But after coming so close to the NBA’s biggest stage, and playing in a relatively weak Eastern Conference that would make another deep playoff run legitimately attainable again next season and beyond, general manager Masai Ujiri hasn’t exactly been shy in stating that he’d prefer to add veteran players that can help his team today. Which means he isn’t particularly interested in being in the prospect development business, one that’s already booming in Toronto with Norm Powell, Delon Wright, Bruno Caboclo and Lucas ‘Bebe’ Nogueira already under contract.
It’s resulted in plenty of speculation as to the Raptors’ options heading into draft night, and whether or not they’ll trade the ninth pick for an already-established player.
Well, don’t hold your breath.
As I’ve been told by a source close to the team, the Raptors brass is no longer expecting to move the pick and have began to narrow their options at No. 9, with Gonzaga big man Domantas Sabonis emerging as a frontrunner.
Part of the reason the team is moving further away from trading the pick may be because it’s hard to imagine the No. 9 pick yielding a huge return, or the kind of player the Raptors could have envisioned on the floor vs. Cleveland or Miami during the playoffs.
Sure, the team could package the pick with a player or two on the current roster, but would that be worth it? For argument’s sake, let’s take a completely hypothetical deal with the Los Angeles Clippers for a reliable veteran shooter, J.J. Redick, who would certainly help the Raptors off the bench, or beside Kyle Lowry in a smallball lineup with DeMar DeRozan, DeMarre Carroll and Jonas Valanciunas.
Would you trade the ninth pick and Terrence Ross for Redick (who is in the final year of his contract next season) and change? Would the Clippers even say yes? Conversely, if the Raps were to go after a starting-quality power forward, the market for candidates who could fill that role would almost certainly dictate a higher asking price than the Raptors can pay in a trade.
But perhaps the biggest argument for keeping the pick is that whomever is selected will be locked into a rookie-scale contract that will pay whomever the Raptors draft just over $2 million per year over the next three seasons. In other words: cheap labour, should the player be able to step onto the NBA floor and find a role within the next couple of years. In the big picture, it’s a relatively inexpensive gamble that, given the options (or lack thereof), could be worth taking.
Historically, the nine-spot (like much of the draft) has been something of a crapshoot. While there have been more than a handful of all-star-level players (Tracy McGrady, Dirk Nowitzki, Shawn Marion, Amare Stoudemire, Andre Igoudala, Kemba Walker and Andre Drummond, to name seven from the last two decades), there have been enough misses as well (Mike Sweetney, Trey Burke, D.J. Augustin, Ike Diogu, Ed O’Bannon).
Another former No. 9 pick, DeRozan, is more in line of a best-case scenario with this year’s pick: a talented player still years away from being a consistent or meaningful contributor to a winning team.
While there’s obviously a ton of value in that — DeRozan is fresh off his second all-star campaign and was the Raptors’ best player in the Eastern Conference Finals -— it took him five seasons to figure out his game and reach his potential. Those expected to be on the board this year at No. 9 aren’t any more NBA-ready than he was on draft night.
In other draft years, there may be a player available at No. 9 who could have stepped in and played some part in helping a playoff team in some role, big or small (think: Gordon Hayward in 2009). But when you factor in the Raptors depth chart and this year’s draft board, chalk full of collegiate freshmen and sophomores, it remains to be seen if that player can be found.
At Sunday’s pre-draft workouts at the Bio-Steel Centre, Raptors scouting director Dan Tolzman acknowledged the team is in an interesting spot, choosing ninth overall in a draft year in which, at this point in time, the first eight picks seem to be locked in (in whatever order): Ben Simmons, Brandon Ingram, Jaylen Brown, Jamal Murray, Kris Dunn, Marquese Chriss, Dragan Bender and Buddy Hield.
Of the remaining names, the consensus seems to be that the best remaining players available are one of the numerous big men who’ll be on the board, including Henry Ellenson, Jacob Poeltl, Skal Labissiere, Deyonta Davis and Sabonis.
To this point, the Raptors have worked out all but Davis, and will spend the next few days debating the merits of each.
And so the Raptors’ biggest draft night question may now be whether they should draft for potential — essentially draft n’ stash — or for fit/readiness. With the draft just three days away, it won’t be long until we know the answer.