Draft-day steals: NBA prospects who could fall to the Raptors

Raptors GM Masai Ujiri discusses the club’s philosophy heading into the 2017 NBA Draft, and their 23rd overall pick.

The NBA Draft is compelling mainly for two reasons: Seeing which players tumble down the board and which players end up going earlier than expected.

The reality-TV nature of placing prospects with employment opportunities adds a sense of theatre to the proceedings that are essentially just Adam Silver reading names at a podium in a monotone voice. For Toronto Raptors fans, the 23rd overall pick means you’re hoping for a young man’s misfortune. Selfishly, the ‘We the North’ nation should be hoping a talented prospect slips in the draft and falls to them, providing their beloved franchise maximum value. Here are some realistic options of players you can root for to slide down and still be available when Toronto is on the clock.

Justin Patton, C, Creighton
AGE: 20
HEIGHT: 7’0
WINGSPAN: 7’3
WEIGHT: 226
POINTS: 12.9
REBOUNDS: 6.1
ASSISTS: 1.2
PER: 25.2
Patton is large, mobile, and has a good stroke out beyond the three-point line. He’s literally the anti-Jonas Valanciunas, which will excite some Raptors fans. Patton redshirted a year at Creighton before emerging last season as a rare one-and-done redshirt freshman but is still a work in progress. A seven-foot forward who averaged better than 12 points and 6 rebounds in just 25.3 minutes will excite most GMs and could intrigue Masai Ujiri as a potential Valanciunas replacement to provide trade flexibility. Patton shot just 51 per cent from the free-throw line, did not have great workouts and could fall to Toronto.

Dennis Smith Jr., PG, North Carolina State
AGE: 19
HEIGHT: 6’3
WINGSPAN: 6’3
WEIGHT: 195
POINTS: 18.1
REBOUNDS: 4.6
ASSISTS: 6.2
PER: 23.4
This is highly unlikely as Dennis Smith Jr. could easily go in the top five and likely will go in the top 10. However, if he gets past Sacramento at 10, Smith could free fall due to the lack of a need for a point guard until Toronto at 23. Detroit and Denver are the only major hurdles at 12 and 13, respectively. Tearing his ACL in high school and being in a toxic situation at NC State has impacted his stock, but Smith Jr. was seen as equal to De’Aaron Fox and Markelle Fultz as point guard prospects entering college. He’s got the bulldog mentality of Kyle Lowry with greater size. The rumours of Lowry potentially not being interested in signing in Toronto might not matter if his replacement somehow falls to Canada’s franchise.

 
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OG Anunoby, F, Indiana
AGE: 19
HEIGHT: 6’8
WINGSPAN: 7’2 ¼
WEIGHT: 215
POINTS: 11.1
REBOUNDS: 5.4
ASSISTS: 1.4
PER: 24.1
Anunoby is the best defensive prospect in the draft. However, he may fall because he’s coming off a season-ending right knee injury in January that wiped out most of his sophomore season. That injury likely means he’ll miss the start of the NBA regular season. He has the most upside of anyone that will go outside the lottery, so he’d be a steal at 23 as long as the medical staff signs off that his injury isn’t likely going to be chronic.

Justin Jackson, SF, North Carolina
AGE: 22
HEIGHT: 6’8
WINGSPAN: 6’11
WEIGHT: 193
POINTS: 18.4
REBOUNDS: 4.7
ASSISTS: 2.8
PER: 21.7
Late in the first round, most options are projects. If you’re hoping the Raptors draft someone who can contribute right away, this is who you should be rooting for. Jackson could go late in the lottery but the fact his field goal percentage went down every year he was in school will be a red flag for some. But that can be chalked up to the fact he took more shots on tougher looks the longer he stayed at Chapel Hill. Last year he shot a career-high 37 per cent from three-point range as a junior. Jackson was the leading scorer on a national champion at a position of need and is of high character. You can do much worse in the back end of the first round.

Harry Giles, C, Duke
AGE: 19
HEIGHT: 6’11
WINGSPAN: 7’3 ¼
WEIGHT: 222
POINTS: 3.9
REBOUNDS: 3.8
ASSISTS: 0.3
PER: 20.2
Harry Giles is reported to have performed better in NBA workouts than he did while at Duke. Giles is another player coming off an injury who could turn into a steal years down the line. He was a former No. 1 overall recruit before ongoing knee injuries left him ineffective during his one season in school. Giles has great size, can guard and play multiple positions, has explosive leaping ability and a good three-point shot. Just a year ago he was a five-star recruit, so grabbing him outside the lottery despite his lack of production would be a win.

TJ Leaf, PF, UCLA
AGE: 20
HEIGHT: 6’10
WINGSPAN: 6’11
WEIGHT: 220
POINTS: 16.3
REBOUNDS: 8.2
ASSISTS: 2.4
PER: 27.0
Leaf probably won’t be good enough on defence to have a major role right away, so teams ahead of Toronto might go in a different direction. The best-case scenario for Leaf would be a Kevin Love comparison. Leaf is a big man who confidently shoots 46.6 percent from three with moves around the basket and passing ability. The Raptors’ cultural reset would be augmented with an offensive weapon like Leaf.

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Anzejs Pasecniks, C, Latvia
AGE: 21
HEIGHT: 7’2
WINGSPAN: 7’6
WEIGHT: 229
POINTS: 7.8
REBOUNDS: 3.1
ASSISTS: 0.3
PER: 21.3
The Latvian is a former teammate of Kristaps Porzingis on the under-18 national squad and had a very good season in the highly competitive Liga ACB league. Pasecniks has a good handle for his size, a steady jump shot and can hold his own on the defensive end. But he has a slight frame and already is pretty old relative to the other prospects who will be selected on Thursday. The fact he’s a draft-and-stash candidate and could stay in Europe for a year might be intriguing to the Raptors, who are already carrying one of the youngest rosters in the NBA and need salary flexibility.

Ike Anigbogu, C, UCLA
AGE: 18
HEIGHT: 6’10
WINGSPAN: 7’6 ¼
WEIGHT: 230
POINTS: 4.7
REBOUNDS: 4.0
ASSISTS: 0.2
PER: 17.5
Anigbogu averaged only four points and four rebounds in 13 minutes per game at UCLA. That was partly to do with the fact that he struggled with injuries for most of his first season in Westwood. Anigbogu was an energy big who only scored by catching lobs from Lonzo Ball. Chances are he won’t be playing with Ball in the NBA so he’ll struggle to provide his own offence. The fact he only played over 20 minutes once in college shows you how limited his game is. But he’s six-foot-10 with a seven-foot-six wingspan and a motor which makes his floor Bismack Biyombo and his ceiling Draymond Green.

 
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Terrance Ferguson, SG, Australia
AGE: 19
HEIGHT: 6’7
WINGSPAN: 6’8 ¾
WEIGHT: 186
POINTS: 4.6
REBOUNDS: 1.2
ASSISTS: 0.6
PER: 5.5
Ferguson is a freak athlete who was inconsistent while playing in Australia this season. Rather than spending a freshman season at the University of Arizona, he went overseas and it didn’t exactly work out. Last season Ferguson shot 31.3 percent from three-point range in 30 games. He is a spot-up shooter without much ability to handle or create on his own, so he can’t really leverage his unique athleticism. His NBA comparison would be Terrence Ross, which will excite some Raptors fans and terrify others.

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