The 38-point margin of victory for the Cleveland Cavaliers is tied for the fifth largest in Conference finals history. In order to win this series, the Toronto Raptors will have to do something they haven’t done all year: Win a game in Cleveland.
Toronto can take solace in the fact that it has yet to lose to Cleveland at home inside the Air Canada Cen-tre this season. In what could be the last home game of the campaign, the Raptors will face their third win-or-go-home scenario on home soil this post-season.
Raptors’ key to the game No. 1: Outscore The Big Three
The Raptors duo of Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan combined to average 59.5 points per game in the team’s two home wins in the Eastern Conference Finals. But Lowry is averaging only 13.3 points per on the road, while DeRozan is averaging 18 points. For the series to head back to Cleveland, the two all-stars have to once again outscore the Cavs’ big three like they did the last time the series was in Toronto.
| Lowry and DeRozan Road Percentages | ||
|---|---|---|
| Home | Road | |
| PP Game: | 59.5% | 28.3% |
| FG %: | 59% | 39% |
| 3PT% | 47% | 10% |
Raptors’ key to the game No. 2: Screen with energy
Toronto will be playing its 20th playoff game on Friday night. That is a lot of basketball, even for the best-conditioned athletes in the world. In Game 5, the great screens with force that Bismack Biyombo and Patrick Patterson were setting offensively were not as solid.
With the Cavs aggressively trapping both DeRozan and Lowry, they need help from their teammates to find space. Cleveland is going under picks for DeMar and over picks for Kyle. In both instances the reason why the all-star guards got air space and clean looks is because of well-timed and angled screens by their big men. Somehow the always-energetic Patterson and Biyombo need to find that energy again to assist on the Raptors’ made baskets without touching the ball.
Cavaliers’ key to the game: Big three playing big on the road
When all three of Kevin Love, Kyrie Irving and LeBron James play well the Cavaliers are impossible to beat. The trio combined for 71 points in Game 4. Love had 25 and James and Irving each had 23. In the 15 times they’ve combined to score at least 20 points, the Cavs are 14-1 and 5-1 in the post-season.
Love and Irving have been less effective on the road in the Eastern Conference finals. Love was even benched for the fourth quarters of Game 3 and Game 4. Both players have to bring their A-games to give LeBron some assistance in order to close out the series.
| Kevin Love’s last three games | ||
|---|---|---|
| Games 3 & 4 | Game 5 | |
| Points | 13 | 25 |
| FGs | 5/23 | 8/10 |
| 3PT FGs | 3/11 | 3/4 |
| Cavaliers home and road splits in Eastern Conference Finals | ||
|---|---|---|
| Home | Road | |
| Points | 50.7 | 28 |
| FG% | 69.1 | 54.9 |
| Point Differential | +56 | -24 |
Raptors Player to watch: DeMar DeRozan
DeRozan’s best two games in the playoffs thus far have been in the previous two Game 7s. He’s going to have to be just as aggressive with his shot and have a strong mentality in Game 7. Toronto is 4-9 when the guard fails to score at least 25 points in the post-season.
Surpassing that number will be tough with LeBron James taking the challenge to guard DeRozan as the series goes on. If the Raptors all-star can involve James in multiple screens and force him to expend energy, it will not only help open things up for his teammates offensively, it will also affect LeBron on the other end of the floor.
Cavs Players to watch: LeBron James
If you thought LeBron got star calls before, wait until Game 6 (and a possible Game 7). James is 8-1 in Game 6s when leading a series 3-2. His only loss was a decade ago in 2006 against the Detroit Pistons.
James is also undefeated at 3-0 when leading an Eastern Conference Finals after five games. LeBron has been passive in the previous two home games in Toronto, but his track record shows that when the series is on the line, he’s the ultimate closer. With the chance to get added rest before a potential NBA Finals, expect the two-time champion to be in attack mode from the opening tip.
Key Stat – The Raptors have lost four consecutive Game 6s and are 1-4 all-time.