News flash: barring a catastrophic injury to one of their two indispensable stars the Golden State Warriors are going to surpass the 72 win total of the 1996-97 Chicago Bulls.
They are too good, too deep, and already have too many wins in the bank.
Pundits continue to talk about how challenging “72” is— the NBA’s regular season wins record— and how long the marathon of the season is. But the attrition of a long season will affect their shallower and less-versatile challengers more than they will Golden State.
The Warriors have already won 22. That leaves them with a 60-game season to compete in where they’d have to go 50-10 or win just over 72 percent of their games. So essentially they have to win five out of every six games. If we assume they’ll have some stretches where they run off 10 straight wins that gives them margin of error where they can go 4-2 in a separate six game sample.
What’s more, the Pacific division is so bad with the Lakers and Kings almost automatic wins that they’ll get some easy victories in exchange for little travel towards the back end of the schedule.
It’s dangerous to chart wins in advance; the 72-10 Bulls lost to the expansion era Raptors. However when you are looking at probability Golden State has already tackled some of their toughest hurdles.
This current stretch will be paramount to keeping pace as they are currently on 7 game East coast road trip. After a close-call versus the Raptors on Saturday, Boston is now the only 2014 playoff team they face until they get the Cleveland Cavaliers on Christmas Day. A NBA Finals rematch with Kyrie Irving returning to the lineup versus an undefeated defending champion is real possibility.
This is already Golden State’s second East coast trip this season. If they survive it unscathed the rest of their schedule plays out favourably.
This is all barring a Draymond Green or Steph Curry injury who are both catalysts on the defensive and offensive ends.
Draymond Green is the first Warrior since Wilt Chamberlain in 1964 to post back-to-back triple-doubles. Green anchors their defence and facilitates their offence as a point forward.
The real player who is indispensable is obviously the MVP.
When the best player is taking the most efficient shot in the game more than ever good things will happen.
Curry broke his own record for 3’s in a month with 76 in November beating the 75 he had in March last season. He now has 17 games with 25 plus points including seven games with 40 points or more. In four of those aforementioned games with 40 he did after just 3 quarters.
In 102 games in the Steve Kerr era the Warriors are plus-1261 with Curry on the floor.
They’ve already sustained injuries this year to rotation players Andrew Bogut, Shaun Livingston, Marresse Speights and currently Harrison Barnes. Have you noticed a drop off in performance? Brandon Rush and Ian Clark have recently featured in crunch time for the Warriors. They are that good at player development.
None of their big stars are playing big minutes—nobody is playing more minutes than Curry’s 34 minutes a night. The Warriors have 11 players that play at least 10 minutes a night. Thompson, Barnes and Green join Curry as the only Warriors that play over 30 minutes. The burden just like the ball is shared.
Usage rate for their stars isn’t crazy which is why the Warriors lead the league in points per game and assists. The Warrior’s have two different five-man lineups that are in the top five in net rating.
It’s a force multiplier of excellence. They play so well and so efficiently they don’t have to play their stars long thus keeping them fresh and healthy. Yet at the same time they are so deep when the starters leave the game the bench can maintain without having to bring the starters back in the game to close wins out.
There have already been nine games that Steph Curry hasn’t played in the 4th quarter including 4 straight at the end of November. Dub nation has witnessed 77 straights wins when leading by 15 plus. Golden State has played more minutes up 15 this year than they have trailing.
This dominant display is more impressive than the Bulls feats in 1996. The salary cap era with punitive penalties for over spending has watered down the league and makes the power more balanced. It’s harder to acquire and keep elite talent. It’s also harder to go on dominant win streaks because you are often facing another star that can have a big night and win a game by themself.
Where this new era does help them is in the rest department. The new all-star break format gives them an eight day rest in the middle of the season. Although Curry, Green, and Thompson and the Warriors coaching staff is most certainly going to be in Toronto that weekend.
In a long season after coming off of winning a championship they will need something to get motivated about and play for. Over the span of two seasons the organizations regular season win streak is streak is now 26 straight. Now they just trail the 2012 Miami Heat with 27 and 1971-72 Lakers with 33 for the longest in season win streaks. These incremental milestones make challenging 72 palatable. This pursuit of history is actually bad news for the rest of the league, as it will force the Warriors to keep their razor sharp focus.
Even if you catch them napping and build a big lead against the Warriors victory is unlikely. They wake up when they are challenged. Incredibly they’ve won the last five games where they gave up 40 points in the first quarter.
Yet a dissenting thought is that they’ll wrap up the first seed in the playoffs so early they’ll rest players down the stretch and drop games as a result. That, however, is unlikely given that last season they posted 67 wins and finished the campaign on a 16-2 run.
Some feel that stating the Warriors will challenge the Bulls’ record is an affront to the legacy of Michael Jordan. Generations hold on to what they knew and retell it as if it is better than it actually was. It’s the sports equivalent of your grandfather’s back in my day stories where he claimed to walk to school barefoot, uphill both ways.
You can hold on to the memory of the historical Bulls as much as you want to but know their record is in serious jeopardy. If you don’t believe me believe the data. If the Warriors stay the course history is in the making.