(1) Miami Heat vs. (3) Indiana Pacers
Series begins Wednesday in Miami.
Season series: Pacers won season series 2-1
Heat starters: LeBron James SF (26.8 ppg 7.3 apg, 8.0 RPG); Shane Battier PF (6.6 ppg, 2.3 RPG); Chris Bosh C (16.6 ppg, 6.8 RPG); Mario Chalmers PG (8.6 ppg, 3.5 apg); Dwyane Wade SG (21.2 ppg, 5.1 APG, 5.0 RPG).
Pacers starters: Paul George SF (17.4 ppg, 4.1 apg, 7.6 rpg); David West PF (17.1 ppg, 7.7 rpg); Roy Hibbert C (11.9 ppg, 8.3 rpg); George Hill PG (14.2 ppg, 4.7 apg, 3.7 rpg); Lance Stephenson SG (8.8 ppg, 3.9 rpg).
Historical note: These two sides met just a year ago when the Pacers pushed the Heat to six games. Chris Bosh was sidelined for that series and it forced the Heat into playing LeBron James at power forward and Miami has never looked back.
For Heat to win: The Heat hold a major advantage in almost every aspect of this series except for inside the paint. That is why their perimeter defence is going to play such a large role as the outside players are going to have to double down without giving the Pacers open looks on the wing. It will require quick rotations as the Pacers pitch the ball around the horn.
They will also need to get out and run to take advantage of their athleticism as the Pacers would prefer to slow the game down to a grinding halt.
Of course, a healthy Wade will go a long way to solving the Heat’s problems but he was not at his best a year ago when these two teams met and they should be able to survive without him. Many seem to overlook this point when talking about Miami’s chances of repeating.
Of course while the offensive talent level has gotten better in Miami since last year, the injury to Wade along with the aging Ray Allen has really slowed their perimeter defence.
Against a banged-up Bulls team they were able to make due but the Pacers have more scoring on the outside, at least from their starting unit. During the regular season the Pacers managed to win two of three versus Miami and Wade’s coverage of Stephenson was suspect. If he is slowed by injury, things could get even worse.
For Pacers to win: We have not mentioned LeBron James much yet but the Pacers could use an assist from the basketball gods here.
Other than an injury to James, the Pacers need to pound the ball inside to David West and Roy Hibbert before kicking the ball back out looking for looks along the outside. If they can establish their inside-outside game, that could go a long way to causing the Heat some heavy grief.
While the Pacers front five is almost as good as Miami’s, they will need to find some bench scoring if they are going to remain in contention here. Even if it is a bullpen-by committee-situation someone from the bench will need to lend a hand if they are going to upse4t the champs.
Over the first two rounds, Paul George has covered Atlanta Hawks forward Josh Smith and New York Knicks forward Carmelo Anthony, and while he has been a disruptive force on defence, the NBA’s Most Improved Player award winner will need to step up his game on the offensive end to help tire out James.
Easier said than done as he will be matched up with James who was runner-up for the Defensive Player of the Year Award. George just has to hoist a few shots so that James can’t leak off him to help with the other starters.
Key matchup: Chris Bosh vs. Roy Hibbert. There are plenty of interesting matchups in this series but Bosh needs to hit a few buckets to prevent Hibbert from providing help defence off of him.
Bosh also has the ability to stretch the defence with a decent mid-range shot and that could prove lethal as the Pacers may let him take those shots. On defence, Hibbert might be a little too big for Bosh too handle but if he can provide some stout defence, things may get easier for Miami.
Best bet: Heat in six.
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