Hey, I don’t make the rules.
The Toronto Raptors make the rules, and so far they’ve made an odd point of sticking to traditional scripts — namely, failing to show up for specifically numbered playoff games.
Case in point: Before the playoffs began you may have heard about their struggles in Game 1s — as of the start of this post-season, they were 1-10 in series openers all-time. Not only that, but they were 0-5 in home Game 1s.
But many were quick to point out: 1) that record is cobbled together from eight playoff runs over 18 years so it’s indicative of basically nothing; and 2) that run had to end in 2017 given the fact that the Raptors were a deeper, more talented team than the Milwaukee Bucks, right?
Nope! Toronto lost in a laugher, 97–83, bringing the team’s overall record in Game 1s to 1-11.
| GAME | WIN | LOSS | WIN% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Game 1 | 1 | 11 | .083 |
| Game 2 | 6 | 6 | .500 |
| Game 3 | 6 | 6 | .500 |
| Game 4 | 5 | 7 | .417 |
| Game 5 | 6 | 4 | .600 |
| Game 6 | 1 | 5 | .167 |
| Game 7 | 2 | 2 | .500 |
Traditionally, Games 2 through 5 have been toss-ups (they’re exactly 23-23 overall). And they’ve gone 3-1 in those games against the Bucks this post-season, tipping the matchup back in their favour.
But Game 6 presents the next opportunity to stick to a disturbingly consistent trend: The Raptors have been terrible in Game 6s.
Just as in the weird Game 1 streak, the Raptors have not won a Game 6 since the 2001 series with the Philadelphia 76ers. That’s a run of five straight Game 6 losses that somehow even survived their long 2016 playoff run.
Here are their stats in those games:
| Date | Opp | Result | FG% | 3P% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2001-05-18 | PHI | W 101-89 | 0.477 | 0.444 | 0.846 |
| 2007-05-04 | @NJN | L 97-98 | 0.486 | 0.600 | 0.760 |
| 2014-05-02 | @BRK | L 83-97 | 0.385 | 0.292 | 0.800 |
| 2016-04-29 | @IND | L 83-101 | 0.367 | 0.310 | 0.640 |
| 2016-05-13 | @MIA | L 91-103 | 0.415 | 0.250 | 0.760 |
| 2016-05-27 | CLE | L 87-113 | 0.418 | 0.320 | 0.765 |
| TOTAL | 0.425 | 0.344 | 0.752 |
Those are noteworthy because, well, they’re not that bad outside of the Brooklyn and Indiana series. In fact, taken on the whole they’re not far off the Raptors’ total playoffs numbers: .428 FG%, .326 3P% and .772 FT%.
Where they’ve really had trouble in Game 6s is on the defensive end, where their opponents have shot like crazy:
| Date | Opp | Result | Opp. FG% | Opp. 3P% | Opp. FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2001-05-18 | PHI | W 101-89 | 0.420 | 0.214 | 0.818 |
| 2007-05-04 | @NJN | L 97-98 | 0.492 | 0.526 | 0.828 |
| 2016-04-29 | @BRK | L 83-97 | 0.468 | 0.286 | 0.760 |
| 2014-05-02 | @IND | L 83-101 | 0.461 | 0.364 | 0.885 |
| 2016-05-13 | @MIA | L 91-103 | 0.476 | 0.333 | 0.800 |
| 2016-05-27 | CLE | L 87-113 | 0.541 | 0.548 | 0.762 |
| TOTAL | 0.475 | 0.398 | 0.811 |
More troubling specifically for tonight’s game: The Raptors are 0-4 in road Game 6s.
But tonight isn’t just a Game 6: It’s also a close-out game. If we look at the Raptors’ record in close-out games, however, things don’t look much brighter. The Raptors have won three times in nine such opportunities, and — as made clear above — never before a series-ending fifth or seventh game.
That said, all of this can change with a single good game in Milwaukee tonight. The sample sizes are small enough that they’ll turn fast, making this piece look real old, real fast.
And, hey, if you’re killing time before tip-off and looking for something to slam me with in the comments below, here’s a good one: Before last post-season the Raptors were 0-2 in Game 7s, but then won two straight against the Pacers and Heat before missing out on a third opportunity in the conference final. (TAKE THAT, NUMBER MUNCHER!)
So, as I said above, none of this stuff is actually predictive. The Raptors just have a strange way of making it seem like it.