They are two of the most successful March Madness schools in recent memory, but nobody predicted either the Kentucky Wildcats or the Connecticut Huskies to be playing Monday night for the NCAA basketball national championship.
And when bettors try to decide between the talented crew of freshmen from Kentucky or the veteran cast of Huskies, they will have plenty of trends and stats to consider.
Kentucky opened as 2.5 point favourites and that number was holding early Monday at most sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com, the lines provider to sportsnet.ca.
The Wildcats have now won 11 straight tournament games, while the Huskies are riding their own hot streaks, which include a 10-2 against-the-spread run in tournament action.
So it’s the No. 8 seeded Kentucky against No. 7 seeded UConn in a battle that pits the lowest seeds ever in a title game. While most predicted Florida and Michigan State might be here, instead it’s a Wildcat team that limped into the tournament having lost four of seven and a Connecticut team that lost twice to Louisville in the week before the tournament, once by 10 points and once by 33 points.
"It makes some of the usual trends a little less attractive and relevant," said Jack Randall of Odds Shark. Higher-seeded teams are 8-2 in title games in the past decade and they covered the spread at the same pace.
Favourites are also 7-2-1 against the spread in that same timeframe. The first trend would favour UConn. The second trend would favour Kentucky.
The OddsShark.com computer predicts a 70-69 win by the Huskies.
It’s just the second time an eighth seed has faced a seventh seed in the tournament since 1996. No. 8 North Carolina beat Tulsa 59-55 back in 2000.
Check out some NCAA championship final trends courtesy of Odds Shark.
Kentucky -2.5 versus UConn (134.5)
— UConn is 3-1 straight up in four games versus Wildcats since 2006
— Kentucky 11-0 straight up, 8-1-2 against the spread past 11 tournament games
— Kentucky is 8-2 straight up in Final Four games since 1996
— UConn is 6-1 straight up and against the spread past seven games as underdogs
— UConn is 10-2 against the spread past 12 tournament games
— UConn is 7-1 straight up, 6-2 against the spread in Final Four games since 1999
