So we’re nicely into the second round and in all of the series the first two games were split and that means we have to keep an eye on the pivotal Game 3.
Here’s a number for you, in the history of the NBA playoffs, 192 best-of-seven series have been played with the first two games divided between the combatants. Even more interestingly, the team that wins Game 3 seems to come out with a distinct advantage, holding a 147-45 (.766) record when it all shakes out.
The Miami Heat and San Antonio Spurs took a leg up in their respective series thanks to Game 3 victories over the Chicago Bulls and Golden State Warriors. Miami and San Antonio lead their series 2-1.
Many pundits weren’t sure that the Bulls could even win a game, particularly since Feb. 1 home owners have made more monthly or bi-weekly mortgage payments than Miami lost games. However, Chicago’s physical dominance combined with a long layoff helped the Bulls take Game 1.
Still, it’s important to keep in mind that since the Big Three of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh have congregated in Miami a series opening loss has served as a wakeup call for the Heat. Specifically, it’s happened twice before and the Heat have come back and won the next four games on each occasion.
Will this be different? It depends on the Bulls health and how head coach Tom Thibadeau chooses to use his lineup. Chicago has been ravaged by injuries and although battling valiantly, it remains to be seen much it will have left with starters playing heavy minutes.
The Bulls strategy and tactics may also start to work against them. Forward Jimmy Butler was ready to be mentioned with Wilt Chamberlain as the only player to stay on the floor for the full 48 minutes in four consecutive playoff games but that streak stopped in the Game 2 blowout.
As it stands, however, Butler has logged the full 48 in four of the last 5 playoff contests dating back to the series against Brooklyn. To make matters tougher on the second-year man out of Marquette, he’s usually been matched up against the best player on the planet, four-time MVP James.
Chicago is also walking the fine line of the relationship between aggression and performance. While it’s true that a team has to be aggressive in order to perform well, the same can also be said of over-exuberance hurting a team.
The impact of consistent over-aggressiveness will wear off as the Heat become desensitized and focus more on their own game plan. In short, trying too hard to take an opponent out of its game may actually take you away from your own scheme.
And then there are the Memphis Grizzlies who continue to play an old school, more conventional style of basketball.
Lionel Hollins, who is one of the NBA’s most under rated and under publicized coaches, has a clearly defined system with commensurate roles for his players.
With the league suffering from a dearth of quality big players, the Grizzlies have two of the best in Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph who complement one another and have excellent chemistry together.
Folks, don’t be surprised to see the Grizzlies in the NBA Finals. Their opponents, the Oklahoma City Thunder, may not have enough to get past Memphis. True, they have Kevin Durant. But he can’t do it all himself.
Speaking of doing it all yourself, Carmelo Anthony is going to need help in New York as the Indiana Pacers play that “bring-your-hard-hat-and-a-metal-lunchbox-to-work” approach similar to that of the Grizzlies.
Anthony is a gifted scorer but he will be looking at a bunch of different defenders over the course of a game with the Pacers. The issue for Indiana will be finding consistent offence. With a focus on defence, teams like Indiana are prone to blackout periods where the offence takes some time off occasionally. Witness a section of Game 2 where the Pacers went more than a quarter of playing time without a field goal.
Lastly, San Antonio simply needs to make shots against Golden State. The Warriors have a high-powered offence and this helps fuel their defence in a sort of a Phoenix Suns circa mid 2000s sort of way. Force the other team to play quickly and take some bad shots.
With that said, the Spurs can also play that style and be successful, just take a look at Game 3. It wouldn’t be head coach Gregg Popovich’s first choice when it comes to winning the series but he’ll take a win in any way it materializes.
On the flip side, one has to wonder if the Spurs are aging in front of our eyes. Remember last season in the Western Conference Final when they led the Thunder 2-0 and then OKC turned up the athleticism and the San Antonio could not match it and had no other answer?
Let’s see how it plays out.