By their own standard — a low bar if there ever was one — the Toronto Raptors enter the NBA All-Star break as a juggernaut.
A colossus.
And that was before a 95-93 win over the Washington Wizards summed up the Raptors’ season to this point kind of perfectly: not pretty, not without flaws, but a telling example of what can happen when a team competes to the final buzzer almost every time they step on the floor.
Was DeMar DeRozan’s game-winner exactly what he was looking for? A contested, fading-elbow jumper over Raptor killer Paul Pierce that DeRozan barely got off after losing his dribble? No. Do you want to have to rely on Lou Williams coming off the bench for 27 points, including eight in the fourth quarter to help erase a 10-point third-quarter deficit? No, but it’s a nice option. Do you want to be down 10 in the middle of a lifeless third quarter? Again no.
But so far this season the Raptors have found a way more nights than not, and Wednesday at the Air Canada Centre was another example.
The result is a 36-17 mark before the moment in the season all Raptors other than all-star Kyle Lowry enjoy a franchise-record nine days between games that puts them on pace for 56 wins this season.
That’s the Raptors people. 56.
It would shatter their franchise-best mark of 48 wins set in 2013-14. The franchise’s first 50-win season seems like it’s in the bag, requiring the Raptors only limp home at 14-15 over their last 29. Only a calamity could prevent them from winning the Atlantic Division, which guarantees the team, at worst, the No.4 seed in the East and home court in the first round of the playoffs.
It means nothing, but it means something.
“I’ve gone into the all-star break with 12 wins or whatever,” said DeRozan, who scored 23 points, helped by perfect 10-of-10 free throw shooting. “It’s a credit to how far this organization has come. “
As it stands, the Raptors have a three-game lead over Chicago for the second seed, though they’re a distant 6.5 games behind the Atlanta Hawks for first in the East.
Some context: No Raptors team has ever won 50 games in a season, which is remarkable for a franchise. What’s more remarkable? No Raptors team has ever been on pace to win 50 games at the all-star break. The 36 wins Toronto has in February are more than they’ve achieved in 12 of 19 previous seasons. They’ve never won more than 29 at this stage of the season and that year — 2000-01 — they went 13-19 after the unofficial mid-way point.
Which raises the question, how good are the Raptors really? It’s hard to be sure. Dwane Casey has put his team on message and it’s simple: not good enough.
“I’ve been there before; winning 60 games, winning a championship. I know what it takes,” he said. “A lot of people might not believe it, but I do, I promise you. A lot of [wins] mask mistakes, but we have to keep grinding. There is another level we can get to.”
Wednesday night against another one of the East’s so-called elites, the challenge was to not get distracted by the upcoming vacation. You know that giddy feeling everyone gets around the office the afternoon of a long weekend? It’s no different for athletes before a break in their schedule.
“When you start getting close to knowing you’re going to get to spend some time at home, with your family, away from the game, away from everybody, it’s difficult to stay focused,” Williams said. “It’s easy to look around the corner at what’s ahead, but this group did a very good job staying focused, staying patient and allowing this break to come to us.”
In this sense the schedule did the Raptors a favour. If Toronto couldn’t find it in them to be suitably roused for the Wizards, well maybe they’re not the titans their record suggests.
You had the two Eastern Conference all-star starting guards matching up in Lowry and John Wall. You had two teams that have mirrored each other’s relatively rapid climb from hopeless to hopeful of advancing to the NBA Finals, and you had two teams that could very well meet in the second round of the playoffs.
The problem with evaluating Toronto — and the Wizards for that matter — is that the league has so many teams that are either losing by design or might as well be doing just that, and in the Eastern Conference in particular.
The Raptors have played 18 games against teams that are on pace to lose 50 games this season and are a perfect 18-0 in them. Obviously, schedules are virtually identical — at least among teams within the same conference — so every club has a chance to fatten their record against the likes of Philadelphia or the Knicks.
The Raptors shouldn’t be discounted for being ruthless efficient against the league’s weaker-thans. But it also explains why a team with a defensive rating (number of points allowed per 100 possessions) of 104.4 — 19th in the NBA and 14th out of the 16 teams currently in position for the playoffs — can be on pace for 56 wins.
Which is why this little run before the all-star break is pretty special. Three straight wins against teams with NBA Finals expectations — the Clippers, the Spurs and the Wizards — bolsters the Raptors record and their credibility.
They have five more games against some of the best teams in the league, beginning with their first after the break with a visit to the Atlanta Hawks, so it’ll be interesting to see how the Raptors look after that. Not that the season will be hanging in the balance by any stretch. The money they put in the bank with their start, the forgiving nature of their division and their conference means there’s always a safe harbour to pull into.
The Raptors have come too far to have anything but an outstanding season. Things would have to go off the rails for it not to be greatest regular season in franchise history. It’s been by far the greatest first half, and they’ve earned their break.
But the margin of error they have to enjoy a great season is slimmer than it might appear.