Masai Ujiri had options heading into the off-season. Like a reader turning the pages of a Choose Your Own Adventure novel, the Toronto Raptors president could have, theoretically, taken the club in any direction of his choosing.
And after a 2016-17 season that featured one major trade acquisition, two players making an all-star appearance, 51 regular-season wins, and a disheartening exit in the second round of the playoffs, you could make a compelling case for just about any choice Ujiri made.
Behind door No. 1 was a full-on rebuild that would have been difficult to pull off without either trading (for 10 cents on the dollar) or wasting the prime years of DeMar DeRozan, the ever-improving star who just signed a five-year max contract last summer and proceeded to break records on the court in the first year of the deal. Kyle Lowry and Serge Ibaka would walk, handing the keys over to the likes of Norman Powell and Jakob Poeltl while trying to get lucky in the draft lottery over the next few seasons, a frustrating and only rarely rewarding formula Raptors fans had gotten mighty used to before Ujiri came along.
Door No. 2? Keep DeRozan, but reconfigure the parts around him, with an emphasis on filling out your roster with complimentary shooters and defensive specialists while exploring the trade value of the rest of the roster.
But Ujiri chose to open door No. 3: getting the band back together.
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With a little help from a weakened free agent market, the Raptors were able to sign Lowry and Ibaka to three-year deals, meaning the Raps’ core of DeRozan/Lowry/Ibaka could all see their contracts expiring at the same time.
It means the Raps have a clear exit strategy in place should the team fail to show improvement or implement the changes players and coaching staff have promised: namely better ball movement and an increased focus on finding three-point shot opportunities.
It also means the team still has a clear window to continue to compete in the East, where it’s just one season removed from reaching the conference finals. With Gordon Hayward signing in Boston and young players like Milwaukee’s Giannis Antetokounmpo and Washington’s Bradley Beal taking huge strides forward, the East won’t be a cakewalk for Toronto, but barring disaster the Raptors should at least remain securely in the top four.
Now that the biggest chess pieces are in place — Ibaka and Lowry should get to go through a training camp together after sharing the court for a grand total of four games prior to the 2017 post-season — the Raptors have a clear short-term direction. But the front office still has work to do to complete the roster.
Two key pieces from last year’s team, utility forward Patrick Patterson and trade-deadline pick-up P.J. Tucker, won’t be back after signing free agent deals with Oklahoma City and Houston, respectively, and there are noticeable holes on the roster as a result. Ujiri’s moves over the rest of the off-season will go a long way in determining just how close the Raptors can get to replicating the success of their marquee 2016 playoff run. But completing the roster won’t be easy.
So what’s next for the Raptors? As always, Ujiri & Co. have plenty of options.
EXPLORE THE TRADE MARKET
Take a look at the Raptors payroll and two names stand out: Jonas Valanciunas ($15 million next season) and DeMarre Carroll ($14 million). If both were playing to expectations, those contracts would be a steal. But right now? They may be impeding the Raps’ progress, not contributing to it.
The Lowry and Ibaka signings took the Raptors near the threshold of their cap ceiling, and trading one or both of the contract mentioned above are obvious ways to free up money to spend on remaining free agent role players who can address pressing needs on the court.
Carroll will be particularly difficult to move with his production falling drastically since leaving the Atlanta Hawks and signing in Toronto two seasons ago. He has virtually no trade value and the club may be better off giving him one last chance to prove he can contribute as the 3-and-D player it desperately needs at forward.
Valanciunas is a more interesting case. The 25 year-old is coming off his best season as a pro and should continue to improve. He started all 80 games he played in last season, yet by the time the playoffs rolled around, the Raptors found success when they removed him from the starting lineup and used him only in situational matchups. He’s always been under-utilized in Toronto, but in the changing landscape of the NBA, where only a rare breed of traditional big man can truly thrive, it’s hard to project the seven-foot Lithuanian having a major role on any team.
That Ibaka is well-suited to play the five in today’s NBA, plus a really nice showing from Poeltl – last year’s ninth-overall pick – in his first pro season means the Raptors’ centre rotation could already be in place in a Valanciunas-less world.
The Raptors have been actively shopping Valanciunas, but because he too carries low trade value at the moment, the team will likely have to include another player — Cory Joseph’s name has been linked to JV in trade talks — or a first-round draft pick (or both) in order to incentivize another team to take on the big man.
Trading away a player like Valanciunas, and to a lesser extent Carroll, can create opportunities to play a more modern brand of basketball, but would also help ensure future cap space which is important not just because flexibility is crucial in building a roster, but also because Powell will be a free agent next summer. If he’s a part of the long-term plans in Toronto, that cap space becomes critical.
Valanciunas has had big performances for the Raptors in the past, and will likely again if he remains in Toronto. That trading him away means the team could get little more than cap relief in return can be a tough pill to swallow — I vividly remember sitting beside an NBA general manager at Summer League just a few years ago and overhearing him rave to a colleague about Valanciunas, who would go on to be named Summer League MVP — but still might be the best option if it’s available.
HIT THE FREE-AGENT MARKET
With the re-signings of Lowry and Ibaka, the Raptors’ payroll currently sits at just under $132 million. The NBA’s salary cap for the 2017-18 season is a little over $99 million, meaning the team is already over the cap and will pay roughly $26 million in luxury tax as a result.
With that in mind, it’s hard to imagine the team adding more salary, despite needs at both forward positions. It’s why the aforementioned trades would be a huge help. But, as mentioned, those salary dumps won’t be easy to pull off.
So the Raptors are left scraping the bottom of the barrel, looking for veterans or other diamonds-in-the-rough to sign for the league minimum. Ujiri can wait out the summer until players and their agents get desperate and ink someone like Arron Afflalo, or Anthony Tolliver, two vets who can help stretch the floor but are hardly game-changers.
If they are able to shed salary, it opens the door for a more intriguing list of free agent targets that could include C.J. Miles, JaMychal Green and, yes, Vince Carter.
Even then it’s a long shot that the team can afford those players (Carter may be an exception, but his impact would be far less than either Miles or Green). The Raptors would still be paying luxury tax, but can at least take solace knowing they’ve taken legitimate steps to try to improve the roster.
The Raptors will also look to their Summer League roster, and to future training camp invitees this coming fall who may emerge out of obscurity to sign for cheap and carve out a role on the squad this season. Last season, players like Ron Baker, Dorian Finney-Smith, and Wayne Selden weren’t drafted but earned NBA roster spots in the summer and training camp. Players like that won’t win you a title, but can be useful at great value.
BRING ON THE SUMMER
Throughout the off-season thus far, the Raptors front-office has preached the importance of player development. And whether it’s by choice or not, the internal improvement of the Raps’ young players may be the most critical next step as the team looks ahead to the coming season.
As mentioned, Poeltl seems equipped to take on a consistent role at backup centre. Pascal Siakam got the opportunity to start early on in his rookie year last season, and while he looked understandably lost at times, he showed growth in his time with the Raptors 905, where he was named Finals MVP by the end of the season. Another rookie, Fred VanVleet, impressed down the stretch, too, and all three will be headlining Toronto’s Summer League roster with the first slate of games tipping off later this week.
It’ll be a great opportunity to get better and we saw how the Summer League helped in Powell’s development over the last two summers.
As is his nature, Powell will return this season as a better, more well-rounded player. The same can be said of Delon Wright, and Bruno Caboclo made massive strides in the second half of last season in the D-League and, regardless of whether it’s out of necessity or not, could get his first true opportunity to snag a role on the big club in training camp since he was drafted in 2014.
Rookie OG Anunoby is the Raps’ ultimate wild card and, depending on how he recovers from his knee injury, has the defensive ability to be a contributor from Day 1.
It may not seem as exciting as landing a big-name free agent, or returning a valuable asset via trade, but the development of the players listed in the paragraphs above just might be the most important next step for the Raptors both now and in the future.